Longshot National Title hopes

[HawkinGoferLand]

At least our schedule allows us to rise in the polls if we win-out. We play #2 OSU, # 11 Wisky, #21 Michigan, #23 PSU, and #25 MSU. Plus a win against BCS ISU and a loss AT #14 AZ. So the computers should like us if theses teams continue to do well....

Maybe the Angry Running Back Hating God has a master plan to take us to the Rose Bowl after inflicting years of pain on our back field...

 

[jesterapparel]

Why?

Last season their were 4 undefeated teams.
Iowa made it to 10th after losing to NW late and then Ohio State back 2 back.
Florida was 1 loss team at 5th with their last loss coming last to #2 Alabama.

So, Florida lost to #2 and dropped down 4 spots, won their bowl game and ended up 3rd.

TCU was rated #14 in week 3 last year. Ended up 3rd and 4th. Sure they were undefeated but had a much easier schedule than Iowa does this year.

Iowa could end up playing 4 rated teams in the next 5 weeks, unless those teams all beat up on each other and drop. Then they have a LATE game against Ohio State currently #2, by that time they could be #1.

Last year Iowa climbed from 14th/17th in week 4 to #9 with 2 losses during that period and when they played Ohio State they were just an 8.

So, it seems like with a harder schedule the rest of the way out(than TCU/Iowa did), Iowa should be able to break into the top 10 if they win up to the Ohio State game. Lets say 7th. A win against a #1/#2 Ohio State could push the Hawkeyes to a #3/#4 spot and puts them in position to take a spot in the BCS title game(As you can tell #1/#2s at the end of the season are taken seriously as Florida only dropped 4 spots). If their is only 1 undefeated team remaining in the top 5, Iowa is in.

Just sayin.

I agree with most of this, I just think the bias voters would take a 1 loss SEC or Big 12 team over Iowa. Also would maybe take a 1 loss Oregon team over Iowa depending on win the loss happened. If OSU can get to #1 and we beat them and only have one loss, we should get to #4 or 3. But that is a big if. We would still probably need upsets in the Big 12 and SEC Championship games along with no undeated Pac Ten, ACC, or Big East teams. I to belive Boise and TCU won't be let in at the end by voters.

Lets win some more games first though, in 6 weeks is when we should be talking more about this.

 

[bws258]

Since when does Iowa get enough respect that 11-1 would be good enough to get into the national championship game? We are talking about a program that has gone down in the polls after a win. I'm not saying an 11-1 Iowa team couldn't get in but it would be more difficult than the other 1 loss teams that made it in.

Oh, I agree, it is very unlikely that Iowa even sniffs the NC ... I am just saying, don't rule it out as a possibility

 

[trj]

It's not that it's impossible, it's that the chances are so remote that it doesn't make sense to spend any time thinking about it.

ding, ding, ding.....We have a winner here folks.

 

[HawkIU]

I agree with most of this, I just think the bias voters would take a 1 loss SEC or Big 12 team over Iowa. Also would maybe take a 1 loss Oregon team over Iowa depending on win the loss happened. If OSU can get to #1 and we beat them and only have one loss, we should get to #4 or 3. But that is a big if. We would still probably need upsets in the Big 12 and SEC Championship games along with no undeated Pac Ten, ACC, or Big East teams. I to belive Boise and TCU won't be let in at the end by voters.

Lets win some more games first though, in 6 weeks is when we should be talking more about this.

Agreed. =), Some upsets will need to happen and Iowa definitely just needs to win. I think Boise is a lock if they go undefeated. If TCU and Boise both go undefeated, both of them will not go in. If they do, BCS had better implode!

 

[HawkinGoferLand]

In 2002 after 5 weeks, Iowa did NOT RECEIVE A SINGLE VOTE in the AP Top 25 poll.

Here is where Iowa was each week in the 2002 rankings:
Week 1: - no votes
Week 2: - no votes
Week 3: - no votes
Week 4: - no votes
Week 5: - no votes
Week 6: # 24 (W/L 4-1)
Week 7: # 17
Week 8: # 15
Week 9: # 13
Week 10: # 9
Week 11: # 6
Week 12: # 6
Week 13: # 5
Week 14: # 4
Week 15: # 3 (11-1)

# 1 Miami had several late season scares. # 2 OSU had a whole season of scares.

 

[bws258]

At least our schedule allows us to rise in the polls if we win-out. We play #2 OSU, # 11 Wisky, #21 Michigan, #23 PSU, and #25 MSU. Plus a win against BCS ISU and a loss AT #14 AZ. So the computers should like us if theses teams continue to do well....

Maybe the Angry Running Back Hating God has a master plan to take us to the Rose Bowl after inflicting years of pain on our back field...

and you left out NW who could be (don't laugh, look at their schedule) undefeated when we play them Nov 13 (notice I said could, not will)

 

[STILLBUSTER]

... and one more encouraging statistic -- over the last 7 years, on avg, at least one NC participant has at least 1 loss!

I post that with feigned optimism but I post (again) the following with realism ...

"National Title" legitimately had it's place in the conversation coming into the season (this team had the schedule, talent, experience and depth, in all phases, to realistically be a contender). Even given all these prerequisites, you still have to execute, stay healthy and get almost all of the "bounces" just to be a participant.

I'll try to quantify it (albeit, simplistically). You have to be 1 of the 2 teams out of 120 teams. 1 / 120 = 0.83%! Basically, in addition to a favorable schedule and being good enough, you also have to defy the odds. In other words, you have to have the "perfect storm".

What's more, I'd argue that, at a place like Iowa, you can't emphasize the word "perfect", enough. In addition to all of the above, you also have to overcome the "national perception" more than many of the other "contenders".

The Hawks had the "prerequisites". Hope was high that Iowa could meet the challenge of having to perform nearly perfectly or the "once in a generation" opportunity would be lost.
(That's what makes the AZ loss linger a little longer than usual; seemingly even more so than NW, last year?)

Bottom line is, because of that "perception" factor, the odds were still stacked against Iowa. While I was very excited about the prospect, the most probable outcome was that, even if the Hawks were to have gone undefeated, they would not have been ranked #1 or #2, this year. And, if you're not #1 or #2, it doesn't matter if your #3 or #10 because you're still in an equally prestige BCS bowl game.

That's why it's time to move on from Saturday's loss and end the NC talk. It's time to refocus on the more realistic prize. The Hawks can still have a spectacular season. They are still a front-runner for the B11 title. They can still go 11-1 and play in the Rose Bowl (or 10-2 and maybe still play in a BCS bowl).

At this point, the most important thing is to avoid the trip to AZ resulting in 2 or 3 losses.

 

[jesterapparel]

In 2002 after 5 weeks, Iowa did NOT RECEIVE A SINGLE VOTE in the AP Top 25 poll.

Here is where Iowa was each week in the 2002 rankings:
Week 1: - no votes
Week 2: - no votes
Week 3: - no votes
Week 4: - no votes
Week 5: - no votes
Week 6: # 24
Week 7: # 17
Week 8: # 15
Week 9: # 13
Week 10: # 9
Week 11: # 6
Week 12: # 6
Week 13: # 5
Week 14: # 4
Week 15: # 3

# 1 Miami had several late season scares. # 2 OSU had a whole season of scares.

If Iowa would have played OSU that year in week 11 and won, we would have played for all the marbles. Thats what encourages me that we still have a shot this year.

 

[bws258]

Bottom line is, because of that "perception" factor, the odds were still stacked against Iowa. While I was very excited about the prospect, the most probable outcome was that, even if the Hawks were to have gone undefeated, they would not have been ranked #1 or #2, this year.

your rationalization is depressing and pointless ... why not have a dream?
sounds like you held out no hope from the get go ... boo!

 

[bws258]

If Iowa would have played OSU that year in week 11 and won, we would have played for all the marbles. Thats what encourages me that we still have a shot this year.

exactly!

If we run through the remaining games 9-0, we will be no worse than top-5 come BCS selection time, because no way are there more than 4 undefeated teams left ahead of us, IMO.

11-1 Iowa who has beaten 9-3 PSU, 8-4 Michigan, 10-2 Wisconsin, 8-4 MSU, 9-3 NW, 10-2 OSU passes 12-0 Boise in the polls. Harder to pass would be a 12-0 TCU or Utah because they play each other on Nov 6 (and then Utah plays @ ND on Nov 13), so we gotta pull them to both lose at least once. (go ISU?). It goes without saying that Iowa cannot pass a 12-0 BCS school.

 

[das89hawk]

I like alot of hawk fans thought this might be "the Season". Great home schedule with tests at Mich and NW. The conf sched is still the test. In end hawks might get a push with the way they fought back. National Champ long shot due to the fact that the national media still has mind set of "big 2 little 8, or I guess now 9". Look at all the positive press that Mich gets just for beating a sub par ND team, then gives up all those point from Umass. even if Iowa goes undefeated in future I dont think Nation respect will ever come hawks way. I am still stunned that they reached #4 in bcs- but that was because of computer in 09.
I think back to 85 7 weeks #1 usa today then 1 loss and hawks have not even been close until last year!

 

[latrans]

I had this posted in another thread that has been buried but it is something to think about.

I know it is a long shot for us to play in the national title game. First and foremost we have to play better and we need a lot of things to go our way for it to happen. I just found these numbers interesting.

These are the National Title game participants and their records going into the title game since 2003 (espn.com's scores only go back to 2003 and that is how I looked these up).

2003: Oklahoma (12-1) vs LSU (12-1)

2004: USC (12-0) vs Oklahoma (12-0)

2005 Texas (12-0) vs USC (12-0)

2006 Florida (12-1) vs Ohio State (12-0)

2007 LSU (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)

2008 Oklahoma (12-1) vs Florida (12-1)

2009 Alabama (13-0 vs Texas (13-0)

4 out of the last 7 years there has been at least 1 team in the national title game with a loss, and 3 out of those 4 years both teams in the national title game had at least one loss, including 2007 LSU who had 2 losses.

A big factor in these 1 loss teams getting into the national title game was they had a conference title game to get an extra win and bump their computer rankings by beating a quality opponent at the end of the year.

Is it highly unlikely that Iowa can still get into the national championship? Yes. Is it impossible? Absolutely not.

I would just point out that there is a bit of a common thread with those one loss teams that made it to the NCG Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Texas, OSU ....... see where I'm going with this? It is not impossible for Iowa to make the national championship game if we win out and are 11-1 at the end of the year but I bet that there were other teams in previous years that were also 11-1 and did not make the NCG primarily because they are not Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Texas, OSU, etc. and all those teams would need to have two losses IMHO.

 

[briankaldenberg]

We win out, beat an undefeated OSU team, beat Minnesota by more than 10 points, we'll definitely have a shot. And yes, we would jump an undefeated Boise. Mark my word. Unless of course, Arizona finishes the season not ranked.

However, we would not jump a 1-loss SEC I don't think and a handful of other 1-loss BCS teams would probably edge us out. Absolutely now way the voters would turn away an Iowa team with wins over probably 4 ranked teams + undefeated #2 Ohio State to an undefeated Boise St.

 

[expos1994]

Longshot of course, but we won't be completely "out of it" until we lose our 2nd game.

If Iowa goes undefeated in conference leading up to the OSU game they will likely be somewhere in the Top 10. Maybe even Top 5 depending on other teams. If the Buckeyes stay undefeated until then they will be either #1 or #2. If Top Ten Iowa beats #1 or #2 OSU, then they have a good chance of playing for the title.

Long ways to go. Keep winning good things happen.

 

[jesterapparel]

Longshot of course, but we won't be completely "out of it" until we lose our 2nd game.

If Iowa goes undefeated in conference leading up to the OSU game they will likely be somewhere in the Top 10. Maybe even Top 5 depending on other teams. If the Buckeyes stay undefeated until then they will be either #1 or #2. If Top Ten Iowa beats #1 or #2 OSU, then they have a good chance of playing for the title.

Long ways to go. Keep winning good things happen.

If we were #5 and OSU #1, we would jump to number 2 no problem unless there was two undeafeted BCS teams still left.