Longshot National Title hopes

S

Section136

Well-Known Member
I had this posted in another thread that has been buried but it is something to think about.

I know it is a long shot for us to play in the national title game. First and foremost we have to play better and we need a lot of things to go our way for it to happen. I just found these numbers interesting.

These are the National Title game participants and their records going into the title game since 2003 (espn.com's scores only go back to 2003 and that is how I looked these up).

2003: Oklahoma (12-1) vs LSU (12-1)

2004: USC (12-0) vs Oklahoma (12-0)

2005 Texas (12-0) vs USC (12-0)

2006 Florida (12-1) vs Ohio State (12-0)

2007 LSU (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)

2008 Oklahoma (12-1) vs Florida (12-1)

2009 Alabama (13-0 vs Texas (13-0)

4 out of the last 7 years there has been at least 1 team in the national title game with a loss, and 3 out of those 4 years both teams in the national title game had at least one loss, including 2007 LSU who had 2 losses.

A big factor in these 1 loss teams getting into the national title game was they had a conference title game to get an extra win and bump their computer rankings by beating a quality opponent at the end of the year.

Is it highly unlikely that Iowa can still get into the national championship? Yes. Is it impossible? Absolutely not.
 
I agree. The season is far from over and we have plenty of opprotunities to make our mark with lots of huge games coming up.
 
We still have more than a realistic shot for a BCS bowl, but our chance for the title game is gone.
 
If our special teams and OL don't improve, we might go 8-4.
If they do improve, and Coker turns out to be little to no drop at the RB position, AND we avoid the injury bug, we might go 9-3 or 10-2. Until we beat OSU, I will never predict a victory against them.
 
worst we can do is 2-10. best we can do is 11-1. our shot at the title game is not completely gone, just a smaller window to get there and there's a lot of shrubbery in the way. still possible
 
It's not that it's impossible, it's that the chances are so remote that it doesn't make sense to spend any time thinking about it.
 
We really should just focus on Ball State. Let's win the game this Saturday. Nothing is guaranteed (they had Purdue on the ropes!).:eek:
 
Those years an undefeated Utah or BSU or TCU weren't even considered. they will be this year. That hurts Iowa a LOT. Not that I think we would go to the NC at 11-1 anyway.
 
Another thing to keep in mind is that with the exception of 2007 tOSU, all the other one loss teams had a Conference Championship Game. Helps get them a big win against a ranked team right before the final BCS polls. No CCG for Iowa this year.

While I agree that there is still a chance at a NC, that chance is really only a mathematical one. Win the B10 and lets go play for Roses!
 
Let's just stop.

Iowa isn't good enough to win a NC this year period - even if healthy. Some of us Iowa fans will be well served to watch the other top teams play. Once you do, you will see the difference. There is a huge difference between Alabama (for example) and Iowa.

I love my Hawkeyes, but reality is reality.

BCS birth? yes, BCS win? possible.
 
tubahawk said:
We still have more than a realistic shot for a BCS bowl, but our chance for the title game is gone.
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I think 11-1 Iowa gets picked ahead of 12-0 Boise/TCU/Utah ... just need to hope there aren't two undefeated big boys

For some reason I keep getting a feeling we are playing Oregon in January (Ducks favored)
 
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jesterapparel said:
2007 would have to happen again.
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Why?

Last season their were 4 undefeated teams.
Iowa made it to 10th after losing to NW late and then Ohio State back 2 back.
Florida was 1 loss team at 5th with their last loss coming last to #2 Alabama.

So, Florida lost to #2 and dropped down 4 spots, won their bowl game and ended up 3rd.

TCU was rated #14 in week 3 last year. Ended up 3rd and 4th. Sure they were undefeated but had a much easier schedule than Iowa does this year.

Iowa could end up playing 4 rated teams in the next 5 weeks, unless those teams all beat up on each other and drop. Then they have a LATE game against Ohio State currently #2, by that time they could be #1.

Last year Iowa climbed from 14th/17th in week 4 to #9 with 2 losses during that period and when they played Ohio State they were just an 8.

So, it seems like with a harder schedule the rest of the way out(than TCU/Iowa did), Iowa should be able to break into the top 10 if they win up to the Ohio State game. Lets say 7th. A win against a #1/#2 Ohio State could push the Hawkeyes to a #3/#4 spot and puts them in position to take a spot in the BCS title game(As you can tell #1/#2s at the end of the season are taken seriously as Florida only dropped 4 spots). If their is only 1 undefeated team remaining in the top 5, Iowa is in.

Just sayin.
 
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bwsmoney said:
I think 11-1 Iowa gets picked ahead of 12-0 Boise/TCU/Utah ... just need to hope there aren't two undefeated big boys

For some reason I keep getting a feeling we are playing Oregon in January (Ducks favored)
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Not gonna happen. if Boise is undefeated, they go. the voters won't let it happen again (as long as there aren't two undefeated BCS conf. schools)
 
hawkfarmer said:
Not gonna happen. if Boise is undefeated, they go. the voters won't let it happen again (as long as there aren't two undefeated BCS conf. schools)
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no way ... voters would weigh the two against eachother and Iowa would move past them ... of this, I have no doubt
 
Since when does Iowa get enough respect that 11-1 would be good enough to get into the national championship game? We are talking about a program that has gone down in the polls after a win. I'm not saying an 11-1 Iowa team couldn't get in but it would be more difficult than the other 1 loss teams that made it in.
 
bwsmoney said:
I think 11-1 Iowa gets picked ahead of 12-0 Boise/TCU/Utah ... just need to hope there aren't two undefeated big boys

For some reason I keep getting a feeling we are playing Oregon in January (Ducks favored)
Click to expand...

I think there will be more than 2 "big boy" undefeated teams this season...one of OK, TX, NU from B12...OSU from B10...AL from the SEC...one of OU, AZ from a weak Pac10...plus BSU, TCU. Could cause a real mess not just for the title game but for the leftover BCS spots as well.
 
Hawke said:
Since when does Iowa get enough respect that 11-1 would be good enough to get into the national championship game? We are talking about a program that has gone down in the polls after a win. I'm not saying an 11-1 Iowa team couldn't get in but it would be more difficult than the other 1 loss teams that made it in.
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Since when has Iowa went 11-1 and beaten a 9-0 #2 Ohio State, beaten 4 other Ranked opponents, and won the Big Ten? =) And currently they are the #1 1 loss team.
 
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