Long-term TV thought/concern?

[silvanthalas]

According to an article back in May, there are 5 years left on the deal between the Big Ten and ABC/ESPN.

With the BTN taking off as it has, is the Big Ten at risk of ESPN giving them the finger when this contract ends?

If this goes nova, the Big Ten isn't going to have the top options that the Pac-12 and SEC will have in going to 16. And many already view the Big Ten as falling behind the west and southern schools, both with recruiting in results. I fear that super-conferences may widen this gap.

As we see ESPN prove time and again - with The Longhorn Network, with Bruce Feldman, etc - it's all about the bottom line. So I can't help but wonder if, in the end, ESPN might let the Big Ten walk in favor of more pliable TV partners.

 

[HawkeyeDenis]

A couple of years ago a TV industry/sports prognasticator speculated that the way we are watching sports now is coming to an end. He stated that the organizations such as the NFL and NCAA are looking at the pay per view model. More money, more control.
That may have as much to do with the new contract as anything. Where the money is these organizations will follow.

 

[kuhntz]

LOL! ESPN doesn't hold the cards...the Big Ten with the BTN does.

The Big Ten may very well give espn the finger and keep all their games to broadcast for themselves.

 

[ColumbusHawk]

ABC/ESPN will not get rid of the Big Ten. It comes down to the numer of TV sets. The Big Ten's TV market is very large. As a matter of fact, it is much larger than the SEC's TV market.

Also, CBS is the SEC's primary television partner. If ABC/ESPN wants to continue being a major player in televising college football, it will make a very lucrative offer to the Big Ten. The Big Ten gets about $220 million from ABC and ESPN, the Southeastern Conference $205 million from CBS and ESPN, the Atlantic Coast Conference $155 million from ESPN and the Big 12 about $130 million from Fox.

The Pac 12 recently signed a new TV deal worth about $250 million a year for twelve years with ESPN & Fox. Remember, these deals are usually back-loaded. So, the Pac 12 will receive considerably less than the average this year. Expect the Big Ten's new deal to blow this out of the water. Even with California, the Big Ten has more households & deeper market penetration than the Pac 12.

 

[NewMexHawk]

Nice analysis...AND if the Big 10 could persuade Notre Dame to join...wow.

 

[HAWKEY3]

Nice analysis...AND if the Big 10 could persuade Notre Dame to join...wow.

I don't want that shamrock-scented steaming swirl of dung stinking up Kinnick

 

[Xerxes]

A couple of years ago a TV industry/sports prognasticator speculated that the way we are watching sports now is coming to an end. He stated that the organizations such as the NFL and NCAA are looking at the pay per view model. More money, more control.
That may have as much to do with the new contract as anything. Where the money is these organizations will follow.

I think this is where we are headed as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see TV games sold like game tickets. You can buy single games, season tickets for team(s), or game packages.

 

[ColumbusHawk]

Nice analysis...AND if the Big 10 could persuade Notre Dame to join...wow.

Thanks! Bring in Notre Dame & Rutgers & the sky is the limit. Rutgers would put the Big Ten in three of the four largest markets in the country (New York #1, Chicago #3, Philadelphia #4). Plus, with Notre Dame's national following, all Delaney would have to do is send a letter to ABC/ESPN, Fox, etc. & say "show me the money."

One thing I forgot to mention is that the numbers included the football championship game of every conference except the Big Ten. Fox Sports is paying the Big Ten $24 million a year just for the football championship game. So, add another $24 million to the Big Ten's above total.

 

[silvanthalas]

Thanks for the thoughts.

Of course, things can and will change over the next 5 years. But I'm getting rather leery of the Mothership these days, and their direct impact on all things athletics.

 

[JonDMiller]

The genie is out of the bottle and is not going back in. I think ESPN's future is not so bright.

Here is an interesting article on the possible challenges ESPN will face in the years ahead

Why ESPN Has Already Lost the Future : Outkick The Coverage

ESPN does not hold the cards. The BTN is already in more than 80 million homes. There are more TV households in the Big Ten footprint than in any other conference.

 

[silvanthalas]

Hmm, that article writer brings up some great points, Jon. I didn't even consider that 5 years from now ESPN's importance may not be so great that we would need to worry about losing them anyways.

Although, I still think keeping games on ABC itself is important, due to it being broadcast, and not network. Not only that, but ESPN's commanding of price per channel is still heads above anybody else. The BTN can only command the high price in footprint, not nationwide. It's also only a single channel, not several.

Final thought: because of things like the BTN (and MLB Network, NFL Network, even NHL Network), I can see the relevancy of the big sports diminishing on the ESPN networks. But ESPN has hedged their bets a little, too: they have become the TV programming home for many other college championships, such as baseball, wrestling, and lacrosse. Attention those sports probably wouldn't get otherwise. There's certainly the good with the bad.

 

[DwayneTwill]

I'm pretty sure media models like the Longhorn Network are the future.

 

[MoseSchrute]

LOL! ESPN doesn't hold the cards...the Big Ten with the BTN does.

The Big Ten may very well give espn the finger and keep all their games to broadcast for themselves.

Hey, your first name isn't Harry, is it?