Long shot playoff odds

SwirlinLingerie

Well-Known Member
I'm not obsessing over it, but it might be fun to watch this play out week to week.

We all know the margin for error is pretty slim most weeks with Iowa, so a loss could happen at any point.

That said, this is looking like one of Kirk's teams that can go on a run and stack some wins. Especially with the schedule. For any kind of playoff talk next month, we're gonna need a couple of Iowa's opponents to raise their profiles so Iowa ends with a signature win or two.

I can't really see it with Minnesota, although its schedule is manageable and Penn State has to visit Minneapolis. Still can't see it.

Washington has a brutal schedule but the talent to reel off some wins. They get a bye this week before visiting Indiana. That's a really interesting game. Indiana gave up 28 points to Maryland and 24 to Northwestern. I wouldn't be surprised if the Huskies put up a bunch of points on them. If Washington pulls that off, we might see some momentum. They get USC at home the following week. I think they win that.

I haven't watched them, but is Wisconsin starting to figure things out? They get both Penn State and Oregon at home. Can they get one? I think it's possible one of those will be tight coming down the stretch. They have a few very winnable games too.

And then there is Nebraska. Really need them to knock off Indiana this week. There is a lot of winnable games on that schedule. I think they are the Iowa opponent most likely to be ranked at the end of the year (aside from OSU and Iowa State).

If Iowa is sitting at 10-2, and OSU and ISU are both one loss teams, and one or two of Iowa's wins are against ranked opponents (and Iowa puts up a few more "pretty" games like Saturday instead of all 2024 15-13 shit shows)...then hopefully the Hawks are at least on the fringe of the conversation. It sure would be fun to go into the conference championship weekend cheering for three or four specific outcomes to occur to give the Hawks a shot...
 
Iowa just needs to take it one game at a time. If they manage to win against MSU, NW and Wisc, then they will probably be ranked at 7-2. Then they go on the road @UCLA and @MD. Make it through those and they are probably 9-2 and ranked 18th. If they beat Neb, they are 10-2 and 15th. That's probably the best they can do.

If the Big Ten sends Ore, OSU, PSU and Ind to the CFP, Iowa probably gets a Citrus invite, but they went there last year, so Iowa probably go to the bowl in Tampa instead.

I guess if Iowa does sneak into the CFP with an 11th seed, and loses in the first round on the road to the 6th seed, then there is no bowl for Iowatl this year, right? Kinda bittersweet for the 9-12 seeds.
 
I'm not obsessing over it, but it might be fun to watch this play out week to week.

We all know the margin for error is pretty slim most weeks with Iowa, so a loss could happen at any point.

That said, this is looking like one of Kirk's teams that can go on a run and stack some wins. Especially with the schedule. For any kind of playoff talk next month, we're gonna need a couple of Iowa's opponents to raise their profiles so Iowa ends with a signature win or two.

I can't really see it with Minnesota, although its schedule is manageable and Penn State has to visit Minneapolis. Still can't see it.

Washington has a brutal schedule but the talent to reel off some wins. They get a bye this week before visiting Indiana. That's a really interesting game. Indiana gave up 28 points to Maryland and 24 to Northwestern. I wouldn't be surprised if the Huskies put up a bunch of points on them. If Washington pulls that off, we might see some momentum. They get USC at home the following week. I think they win that.

I haven't watched them, but is Wisconsin starting to figure things out? They get both Penn State and Oregon at home. Can they get one? I think it's possible one of those will be tight coming down the stretch. They have a few very winnable games too.

And then there is Nebraska. Really need them to knock off Indiana this week. There is a lot of winnable games on that schedule. I think they are the Iowa opponent most likely to be ranked at the end of the year (aside from OSU and Iowa State).

If Iowa is sitting at 10-2, and OSU and ISU are both one loss teams, and one or two of Iowa's wins are against ranked opponents (and Iowa puts up a few more "pretty" games like Saturday instead of all 2024 15-13 shit shows)...then hopefully the Hawks are at least on the fringe of the conversation. It sure would be fun to go into the conference championship weekend cheering for three or four specific outcomes to occur to give the Hawks a shot...
Good post! Fun to follow. I am in Wisconsin. The run game for Badgers is decent. Make them one dimensional and they are in trouble. D is nothing special. The wide open O the coaches want is not going well. So, the have resorted to conservative run game as their go to.
 
If Iowa is sitting at 10-2, and OSU and ISU are both one loss teams, and one or two of Iowa's wins are against ranked opponents (and Iowa puts up a few more "pretty" games like Saturday instead of all 2024 15-13 shit shows)...then hopefully the Hawks are at least on the fringe of the conversation. It sure would be fun to go into the conference championship weekend cheering for three or four specific outcomes to occur to give the Hawks a shot...

I'm just literally happy that they're doing something on offense. Even if it is, for the most part, running the ball. I like running the ball. And they do it well, except against OSU....so far.

You know that meme? With the stick figure that's holding a stick and poking it at the ground? And you photoshop in something like the Hawk logo. And the bubble text above the guy's head reads "Do something". Yah, that one.

That's what it's felt like for how many years. Just...do something. Anything.

Right now, it's give the ball to one of the backs. And occasionally try to throw to a receiver of some sort.

Oh, and use Wetjen. Which they have.
 
At this early stage, I see:

3 SEC
3 Big10
2 Big 12
2 ACC
Notre Dame
Best Group of 5

Obviously, a lot would need to happen for Iowa, Wisky, or Nebbie to climb into the Top 3 of the conference, but there is a lot of football to be played. To even be in consideration, at least one of the three top teams has to lose twice more. Even then its dicey.
 
I'm not obsessing over it, but it might be fun to watch this play out week to week.

We all know the margin for error is pretty slim most weeks with Iowa, so a loss could happen at any point.

That said, this is looking like one of Kirk's teams that can go on a run and stack some wins. Especially with the schedule. For any kind of playoff talk next month, we're gonna need a couple of Iowa's opponents to raise their profiles so Iowa ends with a signature win or two.

I can't really see it with Minnesota, although its schedule is manageable and Penn State has to visit Minneapolis. Still can't see it.

Washington has a brutal schedule but the talent to reel off some wins. They get a bye this week before visiting Indiana. That's a really interesting game. Indiana gave up 28 points to Maryland and 24 to Northwestern. I wouldn't be surprised if the Huskies put up a bunch of points on them. If Washington pulls that off, we might see some momentum. They get USC at home the following week. I think they win that.

I haven't watched them, but is Wisconsin starting to figure things out? They get both Penn State and Oregon at home. Can they get one? I think it's possible one of those will be tight coming down the stretch. They have a few very winnable games too.

And then there is Nebraska. Really need them to knock off Indiana this week. There is a lot of winnable games on that schedule. I think they are the Iowa opponent most likely to be ranked at the end of the year (aside from OSU and Iowa State).

If Iowa is sitting at 10-2, and OSU and ISU are both one loss teams, and one or two of Iowa's wins are against ranked opponents (and Iowa puts up a few more "pretty" games like Saturday instead of all 2024 15-13 shit shows)...then hopefully the Hawks are at least on the fringe of the conversation. It sure would be fun to go into the conference championship weekend cheering for three or four specific outcomes to occur to give the Hawks a shot...
Great post. I really like Iowa's team as well.

I'm just afraid that the fluke one-point loss to Iowa State is gonna bite us on the playoff front. If we had WON that game, this is a whole different conversation. Who knew?

I think all Iowa can do is try to play as well as they can each week for the next 6 games. We are certainly in the running for another good bowl game, and with 10 wins (not gonna be easy to do), an outside shot at the playoff.

Without divisions, realistically Iowa each year is playing for a good bowl game, and an outside shot at the playoff, so we are right where we want to be.
 
Iowa State is getting a massive break by playing in the super weak Big 12. Iowa is going to be the best team they will play all year.

An automatic bid should not be awarded to the weak Big 12, but it is what it is.
 
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