Let's talk Northwestern

[PasadenaDreams]

I don't know much about them so I'm gonna start off with a little numbers break down. I don't think their record really shows how good they are. While they are 6-3, their opponents combined record so far is 31-48, and that is with a 9-1 Michigan State on there. Their non conference record, where they got their 4 wins from is 12-25...with one of those teams being a 5-5 I-AA team. They beat a 2-7 Vanderbilt team by just 2 points. They beat a 3-6 Central Michigan team by just 5 points. They beat a 1-9 Minnesota team by just 1 point. They beat a 4-5 Purdue team by just 3 points and a 4-5 Indiana team by just 3 points. Obviously that all means nothing when the game starts but it looks as though they have struggled with some really bad teams.

Although Persa is a good QB, his numbers have dropped significantly as he has entered big ten play. He is known as being a dual threat QB, but yet has only a 3.2 YPC average.

Trumpy seems to be a non factor in their offense....or atleast not a threat. He has rushed over 100 yards once this year...but other than that game usually gets 40-50 yards per game.

Jeremy Ebert seems to be a big playmaker at receiver looks like he puts up consistent games each week. Now at almost 800 yards and 7 TDs on the year.

These are all just statistical views. They give up 22 points/game on defense. Gave up 28 in the second half to Penn State last week. Gave up 28 to Minnesota who is averaging 21 on the year. Also 25 to Central Michigan who is scoring just 22 a game.

This is all entirely statistical views though. Does anyone know much else about them?

 

[sergeanthulka]

It really doesn't matter how good NW is. They are plenty good enough to beat us if we don't show up. Their offense is better than Indiana's because of Persa's ability to run...we will respect that & won't even attempt to rush the passer. He's also short, so we won't rush the passer for that reason either...preferring to bat down passes & get in passing lanes.

The questions for me come down to...there will be a bunch of 3rd & 2/3rd & 3's for NW...can we get off the field? If not, they will spin clock & shorten the game. If we can't get off the field, can we stop them in the red zone...? We have done a poor job this year of holding teams' to FG's instead of TD's.

On offense, NU will come after us. They will play to our tendencies & blitz us early in every series. Penn State KILLED NU with one screen pass after another -- we've NEVER been very good in the screen game. Having said that, KOK could be a step ahead of them this week...passing when they've guessed run & vise versa...So, we could have a very big week offensively. We were destined to hang 31 on them last year until RS got hurt. So, offensively it comes down to whether KOK has a good week scheming or not. Having ARob back this week should help tremendously.

 

[PasadenaDreams]

It really doesn't matter how good NW is. They are plenty good enough to beat us if we don't show up. Their offense is better than Indiana's because of Persa's ability to run...we will respect that & won't even attempt to rush the passer. He's also short, so we won't rush the passer for that reason either...preferring to bat down passes & get in passing lanes.

The questions for me come down to...there will be a bunch of 3rd & 2/3rd & 3's for NW...can we get off the field? If not, they will spin clock & shorten the game. If we can't get off the field, can we stop them in the red zone...? We have done a poor job this year of holding teams' to FG's instead of TD's.

On offense, NU will come after us. They will play to our tendencies & blitz us early in every series. Penn State KILLED NU with one screen pass after another -- we've NEVER been very good in the screen game. Having said that, KOK could be a step ahead of them this week...passing when they've guessed run & vise versa...So, we could have a very big week offensively. We were destined to hang 31 on them last year until RS got hurt. So, offensively it comes down to whether KOK has a good week scheming or not. Having ARob back this week should help tremendously.

Every team is good enough to win in the big ten if they show up. That's why your Purdues beat your Ohio States like last year.

I don't know if it's really Persa's "ability" to run, more so that they actually do run it with him. A lot of players can average 3 yards a carry. Stanzi easily could, they just don't do it. It's not like Denard Robinson out there.

 

[edr247]

After the performance we had against Indiana? I'm not sure anymore. If the MSU beating Iowa shows up, I think we win pretty handily. If the Indiana beating Iowa shows up, then we WILL lose. Guaranteed.

 

[01Hawk05]

It really doesn't matter how good NW is. They are plenty good enough to beat us if we don't show up. Their offense is better than Indiana's because of Persa's ability to run...we will respect that & won't even attempt to rush the passer. He's also short, so we won't rush the passer for that reason either...preferring to bat down passes & get in passing lanes.

The questions for me come down to...there will be a bunch of 3rd & 2/3rd & 3's for NW...can we get off the field? If not, they will spin clock & shorten the game. If we can't get off the field, can we stop them in the red zone...? We have done a poor job this year of holding teams' to FG's instead of TD's.

On offense, NU will come after us. They will play to our tendencies & blitz us early in every series. Penn State KILLED NU with one screen pass after another -- we've NEVER been very good in the screen game. Having said that, KOK could be a step ahead of them this week...passing when they've guessed run & vise versa...So, we could have a very big week offensively. We were destined to hang 31 on them last year until RS got hurt. So, offensively it comes down to whether KOK has a good week scheming or not. Having ARob back this week should help tremendously.

+ 1. Nice post!

NW is basically Indiana but they will put the ball in the end zone and Persa is a bigger running threat. Our offense is hopefully awake this week and hits some big plays and converts in the red zone. We will need to outscore NW in a game where both teams will control the ball and run a lot of clock.

 

[sergeanthulka]

Every team is good enough to win in the big ten if they show up. That's why your Purdues beat your Ohio States like last year.

I don't know if it's really Persa's "ability" to run, more so that they actually do run it with him. A lot of players can average 3 yards a carry. Stanzi easily could, they just don't do it. It's not like Denard Robinson out there.

My point is mainly that he is plenty enough of a threat to run that we'll change how we rush the passer (i.e. we basically won't) in response. Our vaunted front 4 will stand at the line and do jumping jacks trying to bat passes.

We rushed Chappel, it just didn't do any good, as the ball was always gone in 2 seconds. The pass rush against NU will be much more disciplined...

 

[PasadenaDreams]

My point is mainly that he is plenty enough of a threat to run that we'll change how we rush the passer (i.e. we basically won't) in response. Our vaunted front 4 will stand at the line and do jumping jacks trying to bat passes.

We rushed Chappel, it just didn't do any good, as the ball was always gone in 2 seconds. The pass rush against NU will be much more disciplined...

We did that because of his quick throwing, we needed to force him to get it out sooner than he wanted and force bad throws...and it worked perfectly. Normally though we do not rush linebackers/dbacks and usually generate our pressure with our front 4. This is when we are best. These guys can generate the pressure of 5 or sometimes 6 players, while only rushing 4.

 

[CP87]

It really doesn't matter how good NW is. They are plenty good enough to beat us if we don't show up. Their offense is better than Indiana's because of Persa's ability to run...we will respect that & won't even attempt to rush the passer. He's also short, so we won't rush the passer for that reason either...preferring to bat down passes & get in passing lanes.

The questions for me come down to...there will be a bunch of 3rd & 2/3rd & 3's for NW...can we get off the field? If not, they will spin clock & shorten the game. If we can't get off the field, can we stop them in the red zone...? We have done a poor job this year of holding teams' to FG's instead of TD's.

Okay, this site has to be the coolest in existence to CFB fans and stat heads. I could waste WAY too much time there if not careful.

In regards to your first bolded point, NW is #1 in the Big 10 in 3rd down conversion, definitely an important area of concern.

In regards to the second bolded point, Iowa has been pretty good (not great) in forcing FGs.

When considering all games, they are 24th in the nation at forcing FGs within the redzone, and 2nd best among Big Ten teams (Illinois is slightly better). Iowa also has the lowest opponent red-zone score % among all Big 10 teams.

When considering just conference games, Iowa is 27th nationally, 3rd among Big 10 teams (MSU and Indiana are ahead of us; I wonder how Indiana got up so high?). Iowa has the best opponent red-zone score % in the conference.

As always, statistics never tell the whole story, and can sometimes be downright misleading (e.g., Indiana's stellar red-zone TD% in Big 10 games). However, they are almost always interesting to geeks like me, and they often point out that perception differs from reality.

Another example: after this past week, many assume that Iowa sucks at getting TDs in the red-zone. Actually, they are 26th in the nation at sticking it in the end-zone once they get inside of the 20, and prior to last week's anomaly, they were top 5 in the nation. That certainly makes it seem like last week was more of a fluke (though there were certainly reasons/explanations for that fluke) than an area for continued worry. By the way, NW is near the bottom of the conference in preventing TDs in the red-zone (only Purdue is worse). Prior to last week, they were pretty much neck-and-neck with Indiana, yet the Hawks were able to catapult the Hoosiers up that list, hopefully they will not do the same with the Wildcats.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Northwestern remains a dangerous team. Part of what makes them difficult to defend is that they have so many guys who they're willing to distribute the ball too. That means that it puts a lot of pressure on the D to not cheat. Furthermore, the premise of Iowa's D is to remain patient and force the opposing O to execute with great consistency ... because they're usually not going to get many or any big plays against us. However, the Northwestern O is actually built to "outlast" the D. The "problem" with their O is that sometimes it can have difficulty punching the ball into the endzone. That's part of the reason why Fitz cares so much about establishing a running game. It also keeps the D a bit more honest ... forcing them to have to read run every so often too.

Part of the key, as I see it, against Northwestern is to ...

1. Limit turnovers
2. Keep Ricky healthy
3. Contain Persa

If we can do the above ... I think that we most likely win.

 

[homes]

After the performance we had against Indiana? I'm not sure anymore. If the MSU beating Iowa shows up, I think we win pretty handily. If the Indiana beating Iowa shows up, then we WILL lose. Guaranteed.

I don't want to diminish the lack of scoring TDs inside the 10 yard line, because it was why the game was close, but Iowa's performance otherwise wasn't that bad. Having Robinson back in the red zone will help.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Northwestern remains a dangerous team. Part of what makes them difficult to defend is that they have so many guys who they're willing to distribute the ball too. That means that it puts a lot of pressure on the D to not cheat. Furthermore, the premise of Iowa's D is to remain patient and force the opposing O to execute with great consistency ... because they're usually not going to get many or any big plays against us. However, the Northwestern O is actually built to "outlast" the D. The "problem" with their O is that sometimes it can have difficulty punching the ball into the endzone. That's part of the reason why Fitz cares so much about establishing a running game. It also keeps the D a bit more honest ... forcing them to have to read run every so often too.

Part of the key, as I see it, against Northwestern is to ...

1. Limit turnovers
2. Keep Ricky healthy
3. Contain Persa

If we can do the above ... I think that we most likely win.

One other key - don't get outcoached by NU. Seems to be a really BIG problem with this staff, generally Iowa has had the better team but has always found a way to lose close games to NU. Don't forget, Jake Christensen is the only QB to beat NU bince Brad Banks. Tate didn't beat them and Stanzi hasn't beaten them. Hopefully we get some Jake Christensen-like magic out of Ricky on Saturday and the defense can cook something up so that we don't have to hear "rrrrrraaaarrrrghhhh" coming through the PA system 25 times on Saturday.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

#1 key to W is Iowa scoring TD's and getting at least a 2-TD lead, early. This puts NW in more agressive mode for the big play. Iowa's D is fine preventing the big-play. Iowa's D, especially the back 7, are not good preventing the quick, short passing game all the way to the end zone.

Disregard the intent of "bend / don't break" againt NW. Persa is efficient, accurate, mobile and patient. That's what NW is built on -- long, multi-play, dink / dunk drives. At the same time, Iowa has been exposed multiple times this season -- especially last week -- that it doesn't tighten up coverage enough to avoid breaking against such an offense with such a QB (whether it's on 3rd down or in the red zone).

NW will score 20 - 23 against Iowa's D. Hawks simply have to deliver in the red zone this week. If they run the ball and out-physical NW, like they should (and should have against IU), they will be successful. If they pass in the red zone, it needs to be to either the TE or RB in space so they can run into the endzone. If they out-think themselves again and resort to fade routes inside the 10 (inherently more difficult to execute) then it will be another battle of FG's and Iowa will not win.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

On offense, NU will come after us. They will play to our tendencies & blitz us early in every series. Penn State KILLED NU with one screen pass after another -- we've NEVER been very good in the screen game. Having said that, KOK could be a step ahead of them this week...passing when they've guessed run & vise versa...So, we could have a very big week offensively. We were destined to hang 31 on them last year until RS got hurt. So, offensively it comes down to whether KOK has a good week scheming or not. Having ARob back this week should help tremendously.

As I recall, Iowa used the screen pass with pretty nice effectiveness against Michigan. I think that is another BIG benefit that we get by having Adam Robinson back.

While Persa brings mobility to the table ... his receivers aren't as "flashy" as Indiana's WRs. NW's Dunsmore is a stud (their "superback" ... basically a H-back/TE type) ... however, Indiana's TE was pretty proficient in the receiving game too (although he was a bit dinged up going into the Iowa game).

One of the bigger differences is that Northwestern might have a tad more talent on the DL and they also have better LBs. However, on the flip side, their secondary hasn't had a very good year.

 

[simohawk]

The key to the game, in my opinion, will be when Iowa gets up early to STAY AGGRESSIVE!

NW, more than any other team on our schedule, hangs around waiting...unfortunately, our staff has had the tendency to allow weaker opponents to hang around unnecessarily. To me, this more than anything explains how NW has OWNED Kirk Ferentz.

You have to assume NW is good for 2 TDs in the 4th quarter, so taking a 3 possession lead into the 4th quarter should be what we aim for on Saturday.

 

[JHHawk]

Funny thing is that the last two games for NW...they got up 17-0 over MSU and 21-0 vs PSU and then imploded. So, getting behind has not proven to be fatal,but getting ahead might not be a lock either.

Iowa has to just go in there ready to play 60 minutes of tough,physical smart football. 9 Turnovers are the biggest reason for losses to NW the last two years...cannot repeat that.

Persa must be kept in the pocket,somehow,and be made to throw over the line..he is short. Do not let him escape the pocket.