Latest Bracketology 2/9

[mopkins]

Interesting stuff to occupy your brain until Iowa's next game on Thursday:

ESPN has Iowa as an 8 seed playing Stanford (then Duke). Jerry Palm has Iowa as a 7 seed and also playing Stanford (then Kansas). Jerry Palm also has both Iowa and Iowa State playing in Omaha.

ESPN RPI - Iowa jumped 5 spots to 38th
Sagarin/Pomeroy - Iowa moved up to 27th in both
Iowa ranked 26th in today's AP poll

Other interesting notes:

Iowa is expected (30% chance) to finish out 6-2, giving them a 21-10 record (12-6 B1G) and an expected RPI of 43.

Iowa's chances to win remaining games:
Minnesota - 67%
@NW - 68%
Rutgers - 93%
@Nebraska - 65%
Illinois - 66%
@Penn St - 60%
@Indiana - 47%
NW - 86%

Finally, a few stupid stats for homers and haters alike:
Chance Iowa goes 23-8 (wins out): 4.44%. Projected RPI - 24
Chance Iowa goes 15-16 (loses out): .01% Projected RPI - 107

 

[SnapBack2]

Thanks for the post. Few interesting things...

- A 21-10 record should hopefully get them a 7 seed given key wins.
- Little surprised Penn St is a tougher rated game than Nebraska.
- RPI is such a bad metric.

 

[ibahawkeye]

Interesting stuff to occupy your brain until Iowa's next game on Thursday:

ESPN has Iowa as an 8 seed playing Stanford (then Duke). Jerry Palm has Iowa as a 7 seed and also playing Stanford (then Kansas). Jerry Palm also has both Iowa and Iowa State playing in Omaha.

ESPN RPI - Iowa jumped 5 spots to 38th
Sagarin/Pomeroy - Iowa moved up to 27th in both
Iowa ranked 26th in today's AP poll

Other interesting notes:

Iowa is expected (30% chance) to finish out 6-2, giving them a 21-10 record (12-6 B1G) and an expected RPI of 43.

Iowa's chances to win remaining games:
Minnesota - 67%
@NW - 68%
Rutgers - 93%
@Nebraska - 65%
Illinois - 66%
@Penn St - 60%
@Indiana - 47%
NW - 86%

Finally, a few stupid stats for homers and haters alike:
Chance Iowa goes 23-8 (wins out): 4.44%. Projected RPI - 24
Chance Iowa goes 15-16 (loses out): .01% Projected RPI - 107

I'd love to get to a 6 or 7 seed. I certainly don't want to be an 8-9 seed and have to go against a #1 in the 2nd round.

If the bolded above happens which I think is likely and we go 1-1 in the BTT, can we get a 6 or 7 seed?

 

[JG10Hawk]

If I had to bet I'd say a 7 seed is most probable barring a bad loss or two. Hopefully they can take care of the teams they should. I really don't want to end up in the 8/9 game.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Thanks for the post. Few interesting things...

- A 21-10 record should hopefully get them a 7 seed given key wins.
- Little surprised Penn St is a tougher rated game than Nebraska.
- RPI is such a bad metric.

It would definitely get them in with their quality of wins, no bad losses and wins on the road.

 

[mopkins]

I'd love to get to a 6 or 7 seed. I certainly don't want to be an 8-9 seed and have to go against a #1 in the 2nd round.

If the bolded above happens which I think is likely and we go 1-1 in the BTT, can we get a 6 or 7 seed?

Well if Iowa finishes 12-6 in the B1G they will absolutely get one of the "double-byes" in the BTT and not play until Friday. So their first game would probably come from a range of teams like Indiana/Michigan State to Michigan/Illinois/Nebraska. In your scenario above a 6 seed is certainly possible.

The downside is that Iowa has a lot of potentially bad losses on their remaining schedule, especially Nebraska, Rutgers and Northwestern all have RPI's over 100 currently and Minnesota/Penn State are around 90.

SnapBack2 - I agree with you on the RPI thing, but it is looked at heavily by the committee so unfortunately it has to be considered.

 

[mopkins]

If I had to bet I'd say a 7 seed is most probable barring a bad loss or two. Hopefully they can take care of the teams they should. I really don't want to end up in the 8/9 game.

Yeah I think the most realistic scenario is that Iowa gets a 7 seed. I wouldn't mind a 7 seed with a second round game against Villanova. I'm still not convinced Villanova is worthy of a 2-seed and a win would be some nice payback for that Battle 4 Atlantis championship game.

I don't want to know what an Iowa/Kentucky game would look like unless its in the Final Four

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

Interesting stuff to occupy your brain until Iowa's next game on Thursday:

ESPN has Iowa as an 8 seed playing Stanford (then Duke). Jerry Palm has Iowa as a 7 seed and also playing Stanford (then Kansas). Jerry Palm also has both Iowa and Iowa State playing in Omaha.

ESPN RPI - Iowa jumped 5 spots to 38th
Sagarin/Pomeroy - Iowa moved up to 27th in both
Iowa ranked 26th in today's AP poll

Other interesting notes:

Iowa is expected (30% chance) to finish out 6-2, giving them a 21-10 record (12-6 B1G) and an expected RPI of 43.

Iowa's chances to win remaining games:
Minnesota - 67%
@NW - 68%
Rutgers - 93%
@Nebraska - 65%
Illinois - 66%
@Penn St - 60%
@Indiana - 47%
NW - 86%

Finally, a few stupid stats for homers and haters alike:
Chance Iowa goes 23-8 (wins out): 4.44%. Projected RPI - 24
Chance Iowa goes 15-16 (loses out): .01% Projected RPI - 107

A 12-6 B10 record would be a great accomplishment for Fran and this team. For a little comparison, Tom Davis never finished better than 12-6 in the conference over his last 12 years at Iowa. Only his first squad, which went 14-4, had a better record.