D
DDThompson
Guest
It is apparent that Kirk Ferentz wants to be the head football coach of the Iowa Hawks for a long time. A coach that has invested this long of a time span at one school will solidify a loyalist base and harden a tribe of antagonists (whose volume is disproportionate to their numbers).
Speaking of which, I thought to look at Ferentz's numbers at Iowa to determine which side of Kirk's line of scrimmage has a grasp on reality. How can a fan base have such divergent views of their head coach? If you are like me, you will find yourself agreeing with some arguments of the Kirkbots and with some arguments of the Kirkhaters -- and sometimes agreeing with both huddles at the same time. Perception is a hard thing to break because perception is usually based in some aspect of reality -- in this case numbers.
I have compiled, broken down, shaded, molded, (some might say manipulated) Kirk's numbers and stats for his thirteen years as Hawk head coach into four sets (quarters if you will). The numbers come from the usual suspects: BigTen, ESPN, AP, and Stassen. Some of those sources had differences in their numbers - almost exclusively in this first set of numbers. But those differences are small. In sports, numbers are what we base our perception of reality upon. Numbers, of course, can be twisted and colored to get a desired outcome. I have tried not to do that. Is your coloring of Kirk's job as head coach based on subjectivity or by numbers?
Let's color in Kirk-by-numbers.
First Quarter of Kirk-by-Numbers: Offense and Defense Points
Pre-Game
I had not planned on compiling and researching this category. I thought it would be a tedious and vain experiment. After all, how much a team scores or allows is not paramount; all you have to do is score one more point or allow one less point than your opponent this week to add a number to the most important category: Wins.
(Here are recent examples: Iowa 18 NIU 17 and NW 42 Syr 41).
But after looking at the numbers I discovered I was wrong. Sure, you still only need to score one more point or allow one less point than your opponent this week, but the overall season points scored and allowed are not empty at all. Comparing overall points has substance to it. The other thing I was right about...it was tedious.
I thought to get the most accurate picture of scoring during Ferentz's tenure that I would need to limit the comparative numbers.
First, the non-conference games are usually waged against non-BCS and Div-IAA teams are are almost always at home.
Second, conferences tend to take on their own personalities. The Big XII is certainly different in offense/defense philosophies than the SEC and both of them are different than the B1G. In other words, it doesn't matter if seven Big XII teams and nine SEC teams score more points or allow fewer points than Iowa or any other B1G team. Iowa is playing 8 games against B1G schools; they are not playing 8 games against the PAC12 or ACC.
In both cases above, there is no constant. The fairest way to compare scoring numbers is within the constant of conference games and even then there is a flaw of not playing a round-robin schedule. Still, that's more fair than adding in the cupcakes at home.
Third, I did not remove the defensive or special teams scores for several reasons. One, it would not adversely effect the numbers (other than Ricky Stanzi's season of giving up 92 points allowed all by himself). Two, especially in comparison to the amount of time it would take to research to remove those numbers out of the comparison. And most importantly, I'm not getting paid to do it.
First Quarter: Points
Below is a chart of Iowa's total points, B1G rank, average, and differential.
Iowa Offense
Year..Points..Rank..Avg....B1G Avg ...Difference
'99 . . . 121 . . . 10 . . 15.1 . . . 25.6 . . . . -10.5
'00 . . . 148 . . .10 . . 18.5 . . . 27.3 . . . . -6.8
'01 . . . 263 . . . 2 . . . 32.9 . . . 27.9 . . . .+5.0
'02 . . . 302 . . . 1 . . . 37.8 . . . 27.5 . . . .+10.3
'03 . . . 198 . . . 5 . . . 24.8 . . . 24.8 . . . . .even
'04 . . . 199 . . . 4 . . . 24.9 . . . 23.1 . . . . .+1.8
'05 . . . 232 . . . 7 . . . 29.0 . . . 23.4 . . . . +5.6
'06 . . . 174 . . . 6 . . . 21.8 . . . 28.1 . . . . . -6.3
'07 . . . 139 . . . 11 . . 17.4 . . . 27.4 . . . . -10.0
'08 . . . 238 . . . 2 . . . 29.8 . . . 25.2 . . . . +4.6
'09 . . . 174 . . . 9 . . . 21.8 . . . 24.6 . . . . -2.8
'10 . . . 205 . . . 6 . . . 25.6 . . . 27.9 . . . . -2.3
'11 . . . 188 . . . 7 . . . 23.5 . . . 27.3 . . . . -3.8
Iowa Defense
Year..Points..Rank..Avg....B1G Avg ...Difference
'99 . . . 288 . . . 10 . . 36.0 . . . 25.6 . . . . -10.4
'00 . . . 210 . . . 6 . . . 26.3 . . . 27.3 . . . . +1.o
'01 . . . 206 . . . 4 . . . 25.8 . . . 27.9 . . . .+2.1
'02 . . . 131 . . . 2 . . . 16.4 . . . 27.5 . . . .+11.4
'03 . . . 160 . . . 4 . . . 20.0 . . . 24.8 . . . . +4.8
'04 . . . 125 . . . 2 . . . 15.6 . . . 23.1 . . . . .+7.5
'05 . . . 165 . . . 3 . . . 20.6 . . . 23.4 . . . . +2.8
'06 . . . 192 . . . 6 . . . 24.0 . . . 28.1 . . . . . +4.1
'07 . . . 179 . . . 5 . . . 22.4 . . . 27.4 . . . . +5.0
'08 . . . 130 . . . 3 . . . 16.3 . . . 25.2 . . . . +8.9
'09 . . . 129 . . . 3 . . . 16.1 . . . 24.6 . . . . .+8.5
'10 . . . 155 . . . 3 . . . 19.4 . . . 27.9 . . . . .+8.5
'11 . . . .169 . . . 5 . . . 21.1 . . . 27.3 . . . . .+6.2
Keeping Up With The Joneses
The numbers indicate that Iowa's offense is really not falling far behind the times in the B1G as some perceive. Iowa's numbers have remained below the B1G score average but even with a slight uptick in conference scoring, Iowa's offensive scheme has not been left in the dark ages of scoring. Not even close.
Upper Half vs. Lower Half
That does not mean that finishing in the upper half of scoring does not have merit. When Iowa's offense is in the upper division in scoring (5x) the record is 29-11 (725%) while a lower half ranking (8x) has earned a 28-36 (.437%) record.
Iowa has only had a winning record two times in the B1G when finishing in the lower half of points scored.
For the defense: the upper half record (10x) is 52-28 (650%) and the lower half is 5-19 (208%). Iowa has never had a winning record when finishing in the lower half of defensive scoring. Not even a .500 record.
When Iowa is in the upper half of offense and defense the record is 29-11 (725%). That number sounds familiar. I really like that number, too.
You Don't Have to Score B1G in the B1G to be a B1G Boy in the B1G
When Iowa's offense averages more than the B1G average per game (6x) in a season, the record is 34-14 (708%). Five times those have been winning seasons. There have been no losing seasons.
When Iowa's offense averages less than the B1G average per game (7x), the record is 23-33 (410%).
Iowa's defense allowed more points per game than the B1G average only one time. Yep. Once. And that was Year One of K.F. That season Iowa was 0-8 so when the defense averages less than the conference average, Iowa's record is 57-39 (594%).
Above average on offense: 708%.
Below average on defense: 594%
Those numbers are shocking to me.
Iowa Score Average
During the Ferentz Era, Iowa's offense has averaged 24.8 points while the defense has averaged 21.5 points per game.
Iowa scoring more than their average (7x) the record is 38-18 (679%)
Iowa scoring less than their average per season: the record is 19-29 (396%)
Defense allowing less than the average (8x) the record is 44-20 (687%)
Defense allowing more than the average: 13-27 (325%)
The following chart is the average points score and allowed for B1G teams since 1999.
Offensive Scoring
1. Wisconsin . . . 30.2
2. Michigan . . . 29.1
3. Ohio State . . 27.9
4. Mich State . . 27.0
5. Minnesota . . 25.9
6. Purdue . . . . . 24.9
7. Penn State . . 24.8
Iowa . . . . . . . 24.8
9. N'western . . . 24.0
10. Illinois . . . . . 23.6
11. Indiana . . . . 23.1
Defensive Scoring
1. Ohio State . . 16.8
2. Penn State . . 20.0
3. Iowa . . . . . . . 21.5
4. Wisconsin . . 23.0
5. Michigan . . . 24.0
6. Purdue . . . . . 26.2
7. Mich State . . 27.5
8. Illinois . . . . . 28.3
9. Minnesota . . 29.8
10. N'western . . 31.6
11. Indiana . . . . 34.0
Yeah, that's right. Minnesota scores more than Iowa in B1G conference play.
Separation
Wisconsin has had the highest scoring offense in the B1G the last three seasons; the last two are just mind-boggling. The Badgers have bettered Iowa's offensive output by 60 and 80 points the last two years.
No. Check that. The Badgers offense has bettered the second highest scoring B1G offense by 60 and 80 points the last two years. The 60 point separation between high and #2 has happened only two other times: N'western in 2000 over Iowa's #2 finish and in 2006 (OSU over Wisky).
In the other nine seasons, the separation in scoring from the highest scoring offensive unit minus sixty points was: 6th - 6th - 3rd - 4th - 5th - 8th - 6th -5th-9th (Iowa's rank). Of course sixty points is significant. But a sixty point (one touchdown) differnence is substantially significant when it's between the highest ranked offense in the B1G to the 6th ranked offense and the highest-to-2nd ranked or the highest-to-9th ranked offense.
I don't really no what all of that means. I was just intrigued by the theory of six(ty) degrees of separation and how Wisconsin likes to be offensive.
High/Low Offense/Defense
I came up with another tweak while compiling the scores that I thought was intriguing. Looking at the scores of each B1G game for the last 13 seasons, I looked for the two highest and two lowest offensive and two highest and two lowest defensive outputs for and against each team. I considered two instead of high/low score for two reasons: (1) We all know fluke plays occur and prevent defense strategies can influence scoring at the end of games that could drop a team from having the high/low score. (2) most importantly and in one word: . . . Indiana.
In 104 B1G Conference games:
Defense High Score Allowed
Iowa's defense has allowed the highest two scores allowed just 19 times -- and nine of those occured in Ferentz's first two seasons.
Of those 19 game high scores:
--3 were givein up to the B1G's second worst offensive team - Illinois (in just 8 games)
--5 were given up to the B1G's lowest scoring offensive team -- Indiana.
--1 each were given up to the conferences top two highest scoring teams - Wisconsin and Michigan.
Yeah, those numbers are head scratchers.
Defense Low Score Allowed
Iowa's defense has forced the low two game scores 33 times:
--4 times each to the 2nd and 4th ranked offenses (Michigan and Sparty)
--7 times the highest scoring offense, Wisconsin, has been held to their lowest scores by the Iowa defense in 12 games.
Yep, rub your eyes and read that again. Iowa's 15 of 33 lowest scoring games compared to other B1G teams have come against the top four scoring offenses.
Offense High Scores
Iowa's offense has the highest games scores against their opponent 28 times and the lowest game scores 32 times. The Hawks are fairly equal opportunity in scoring highs against conference opponents. But there are numbers that still stand out.
--the first two season and 2007, Iowa's offense failed to reach a high score in any game.
--in 2002, the perfect 8-0 season, Iowa's offense reached the high score in 4 games.
--2009 was the most schizophrenic of offensive outputs: three times Iowa reached the high score output and four times they were the lowest scoring offense.
--Illinois has held Iowa to the lowest score two times and own the only shutout of Iowa - the same as the B1G's best defense - Ohio State which doesn't own a shutout of Iowa. Every other team has done better at holding Iowa to its lowest scores of the season.
Offense Low Scores
--On the flip side against the worst conference defense in Indiana, Iowa has had the low score 3 times - all of those in the last six years.
--To prove that isn't a fluke Northwestern, with the second worst scoring defense, has put Iowa on the short end of scoring four times - three of those in the last six years.
--In the 12 games Iowa and Wisconsin have played, five times the Badger defense has held Iowa to the lowest points allowed against any B1G foe. And four times they have given up the most points to an Iowa offense.
Color Commentary / Conclusion
Iowa's defense can keep Iowa from having bad seasons in the B1G. Normally, Kirk's defense has put 4-4 as the floor in conference play. When Kirk's teams score they have winning seasons in the B1G Conference. And they don't even have to score big; just be better than average.
Whether it's execution, talent, or offensive philosophy (think of that as coaching execution), Iowa's defense can help Iowa to have good seasons; Iowa's offense more often than not prevents Iowa from having great seasons.
That's not just perception. That's Kirk-by-his-numbers.
Speaking of which, I thought to look at Ferentz's numbers at Iowa to determine which side of Kirk's line of scrimmage has a grasp on reality. How can a fan base have such divergent views of their head coach? If you are like me, you will find yourself agreeing with some arguments of the Kirkbots and with some arguments of the Kirkhaters -- and sometimes agreeing with both huddles at the same time. Perception is a hard thing to break because perception is usually based in some aspect of reality -- in this case numbers.
I have compiled, broken down, shaded, molded, (some might say manipulated) Kirk's numbers and stats for his thirteen years as Hawk head coach into four sets (quarters if you will). The numbers come from the usual suspects: BigTen, ESPN, AP, and Stassen. Some of those sources had differences in their numbers - almost exclusively in this first set of numbers. But those differences are small. In sports, numbers are what we base our perception of reality upon. Numbers, of course, can be twisted and colored to get a desired outcome. I have tried not to do that. Is your coloring of Kirk's job as head coach based on subjectivity or by numbers?
Let's color in Kirk-by-numbers.
First Quarter of Kirk-by-Numbers: Offense and Defense Points
Pre-Game
I had not planned on compiling and researching this category. I thought it would be a tedious and vain experiment. After all, how much a team scores or allows is not paramount; all you have to do is score one more point or allow one less point than your opponent this week to add a number to the most important category: Wins.
(Here are recent examples: Iowa 18 NIU 17 and NW 42 Syr 41).
But after looking at the numbers I discovered I was wrong. Sure, you still only need to score one more point or allow one less point than your opponent this week, but the overall season points scored and allowed are not empty at all. Comparing overall points has substance to it. The other thing I was right about...it was tedious.
I thought to get the most accurate picture of scoring during Ferentz's tenure that I would need to limit the comparative numbers.
First, the non-conference games are usually waged against non-BCS and Div-IAA teams are are almost always at home.
Second, conferences tend to take on their own personalities. The Big XII is certainly different in offense/defense philosophies than the SEC and both of them are different than the B1G. In other words, it doesn't matter if seven Big XII teams and nine SEC teams score more points or allow fewer points than Iowa or any other B1G team. Iowa is playing 8 games against B1G schools; they are not playing 8 games against the PAC12 or ACC.
In both cases above, there is no constant. The fairest way to compare scoring numbers is within the constant of conference games and even then there is a flaw of not playing a round-robin schedule. Still, that's more fair than adding in the cupcakes at home.
Third, I did not remove the defensive or special teams scores for several reasons. One, it would not adversely effect the numbers (other than Ricky Stanzi's season of giving up 92 points allowed all by himself). Two, especially in comparison to the amount of time it would take to research to remove those numbers out of the comparison. And most importantly, I'm not getting paid to do it.
First Quarter: Points
Below is a chart of Iowa's total points, B1G rank, average, and differential.
Iowa Offense
Year..Points..Rank..Avg....B1G Avg ...Difference
'99 . . . 121 . . . 10 . . 15.1 . . . 25.6 . . . . -10.5
'00 . . . 148 . . .10 . . 18.5 . . . 27.3 . . . . -6.8
'01 . . . 263 . . . 2 . . . 32.9 . . . 27.9 . . . .+5.0
'02 . . . 302 . . . 1 . . . 37.8 . . . 27.5 . . . .+10.3
'03 . . . 198 . . . 5 . . . 24.8 . . . 24.8 . . . . .even
'04 . . . 199 . . . 4 . . . 24.9 . . . 23.1 . . . . .+1.8
'05 . . . 232 . . . 7 . . . 29.0 . . . 23.4 . . . . +5.6
'06 . . . 174 . . . 6 . . . 21.8 . . . 28.1 . . . . . -6.3
'07 . . . 139 . . . 11 . . 17.4 . . . 27.4 . . . . -10.0
'08 . . . 238 . . . 2 . . . 29.8 . . . 25.2 . . . . +4.6
'09 . . . 174 . . . 9 . . . 21.8 . . . 24.6 . . . . -2.8
'10 . . . 205 . . . 6 . . . 25.6 . . . 27.9 . . . . -2.3
'11 . . . 188 . . . 7 . . . 23.5 . . . 27.3 . . . . -3.8
Iowa Defense
Year..Points..Rank..Avg....B1G Avg ...Difference
'99 . . . 288 . . . 10 . . 36.0 . . . 25.6 . . . . -10.4
'00 . . . 210 . . . 6 . . . 26.3 . . . 27.3 . . . . +1.o
'01 . . . 206 . . . 4 . . . 25.8 . . . 27.9 . . . .+2.1
'02 . . . 131 . . . 2 . . . 16.4 . . . 27.5 . . . .+11.4
'03 . . . 160 . . . 4 . . . 20.0 . . . 24.8 . . . . +4.8
'04 . . . 125 . . . 2 . . . 15.6 . . . 23.1 . . . . .+7.5
'05 . . . 165 . . . 3 . . . 20.6 . . . 23.4 . . . . +2.8
'06 . . . 192 . . . 6 . . . 24.0 . . . 28.1 . . . . . +4.1
'07 . . . 179 . . . 5 . . . 22.4 . . . 27.4 . . . . +5.0
'08 . . . 130 . . . 3 . . . 16.3 . . . 25.2 . . . . +8.9
'09 . . . 129 . . . 3 . . . 16.1 . . . 24.6 . . . . .+8.5
'10 . . . 155 . . . 3 . . . 19.4 . . . 27.9 . . . . .+8.5
'11 . . . .169 . . . 5 . . . 21.1 . . . 27.3 . . . . .+6.2
Keeping Up With The Joneses
The numbers indicate that Iowa's offense is really not falling far behind the times in the B1G as some perceive. Iowa's numbers have remained below the B1G score average but even with a slight uptick in conference scoring, Iowa's offensive scheme has not been left in the dark ages of scoring. Not even close.
Upper Half vs. Lower Half
That does not mean that finishing in the upper half of scoring does not have merit. When Iowa's offense is in the upper division in scoring (5x) the record is 29-11 (725%) while a lower half ranking (8x) has earned a 28-36 (.437%) record.
Iowa has only had a winning record two times in the B1G when finishing in the lower half of points scored.
For the defense: the upper half record (10x) is 52-28 (650%) and the lower half is 5-19 (208%). Iowa has never had a winning record when finishing in the lower half of defensive scoring. Not even a .500 record.
When Iowa is in the upper half of offense and defense the record is 29-11 (725%). That number sounds familiar. I really like that number, too.
You Don't Have to Score B1G in the B1G to be a B1G Boy in the B1G
When Iowa's offense averages more than the B1G average per game (6x) in a season, the record is 34-14 (708%). Five times those have been winning seasons. There have been no losing seasons.
When Iowa's offense averages less than the B1G average per game (7x), the record is 23-33 (410%).
Iowa's defense allowed more points per game than the B1G average only one time. Yep. Once. And that was Year One of K.F. That season Iowa was 0-8 so when the defense averages less than the conference average, Iowa's record is 57-39 (594%).
Above average on offense: 708%.
Below average on defense: 594%
Those numbers are shocking to me.
Iowa Score Average
During the Ferentz Era, Iowa's offense has averaged 24.8 points while the defense has averaged 21.5 points per game.
Iowa scoring more than their average (7x) the record is 38-18 (679%)
Iowa scoring less than their average per season: the record is 19-29 (396%)
Defense allowing less than the average (8x) the record is 44-20 (687%)
Defense allowing more than the average: 13-27 (325%)
The following chart is the average points score and allowed for B1G teams since 1999.
Offensive Scoring
1. Wisconsin . . . 30.2
2. Michigan . . . 29.1
3. Ohio State . . 27.9
4. Mich State . . 27.0
5. Minnesota . . 25.9
6. Purdue . . . . . 24.9
7. Penn State . . 24.8
Iowa . . . . . . . 24.8
9. N'western . . . 24.0
10. Illinois . . . . . 23.6
11. Indiana . . . . 23.1
Defensive Scoring
1. Ohio State . . 16.8
2. Penn State . . 20.0
3. Iowa . . . . . . . 21.5
4. Wisconsin . . 23.0
5. Michigan . . . 24.0
6. Purdue . . . . . 26.2
7. Mich State . . 27.5
8. Illinois . . . . . 28.3
9. Minnesota . . 29.8
10. N'western . . 31.6
11. Indiana . . . . 34.0
Yeah, that's right. Minnesota scores more than Iowa in B1G conference play.
Separation
Wisconsin has had the highest scoring offense in the B1G the last three seasons; the last two are just mind-boggling. The Badgers have bettered Iowa's offensive output by 60 and 80 points the last two years.
No. Check that. The Badgers offense has bettered the second highest scoring B1G offense by 60 and 80 points the last two years. The 60 point separation between high and #2 has happened only two other times: N'western in 2000 over Iowa's #2 finish and in 2006 (OSU over Wisky).
In the other nine seasons, the separation in scoring from the highest scoring offensive unit minus sixty points was: 6th - 6th - 3rd - 4th - 5th - 8th - 6th -5th-9th (Iowa's rank). Of course sixty points is significant. But a sixty point (one touchdown) differnence is substantially significant when it's between the highest ranked offense in the B1G to the 6th ranked offense and the highest-to-2nd ranked or the highest-to-9th ranked offense.
I don't really no what all of that means. I was just intrigued by the theory of six(ty) degrees of separation and how Wisconsin likes to be offensive.
High/Low Offense/Defense
I came up with another tweak while compiling the scores that I thought was intriguing. Looking at the scores of each B1G game for the last 13 seasons, I looked for the two highest and two lowest offensive and two highest and two lowest defensive outputs for and against each team. I considered two instead of high/low score for two reasons: (1) We all know fluke plays occur and prevent defense strategies can influence scoring at the end of games that could drop a team from having the high/low score. (2) most importantly and in one word: . . . Indiana.
In 104 B1G Conference games:
Defense High Score Allowed
Iowa's defense has allowed the highest two scores allowed just 19 times -- and nine of those occured in Ferentz's first two seasons.
Of those 19 game high scores:
--3 were givein up to the B1G's second worst offensive team - Illinois (in just 8 games)
--5 were given up to the B1G's lowest scoring offensive team -- Indiana.
--1 each were given up to the conferences top two highest scoring teams - Wisconsin and Michigan.
Yeah, those numbers are head scratchers.
Defense Low Score Allowed
Iowa's defense has forced the low two game scores 33 times:
--4 times each to the 2nd and 4th ranked offenses (Michigan and Sparty)
--7 times the highest scoring offense, Wisconsin, has been held to their lowest scores by the Iowa defense in 12 games.
Yep, rub your eyes and read that again. Iowa's 15 of 33 lowest scoring games compared to other B1G teams have come against the top four scoring offenses.
Offense High Scores
Iowa's offense has the highest games scores against their opponent 28 times and the lowest game scores 32 times. The Hawks are fairly equal opportunity in scoring highs against conference opponents. But there are numbers that still stand out.
--the first two season and 2007, Iowa's offense failed to reach a high score in any game.
--in 2002, the perfect 8-0 season, Iowa's offense reached the high score in 4 games.
--2009 was the most schizophrenic of offensive outputs: three times Iowa reached the high score output and four times they were the lowest scoring offense.
--Illinois has held Iowa to the lowest score two times and own the only shutout of Iowa - the same as the B1G's best defense - Ohio State which doesn't own a shutout of Iowa. Every other team has done better at holding Iowa to its lowest scores of the season.
Offense Low Scores
--On the flip side against the worst conference defense in Indiana, Iowa has had the low score 3 times - all of those in the last six years.
--To prove that isn't a fluke Northwestern, with the second worst scoring defense, has put Iowa on the short end of scoring four times - three of those in the last six years.
--In the 12 games Iowa and Wisconsin have played, five times the Badger defense has held Iowa to the lowest points allowed against any B1G foe. And four times they have given up the most points to an Iowa offense.
Color Commentary / Conclusion
Iowa's defense can keep Iowa from having bad seasons in the B1G. Normally, Kirk's defense has put 4-4 as the floor in conference play. When Kirk's teams score they have winning seasons in the B1G Conference. And they don't even have to score big; just be better than average.
Whether it's execution, talent, or offensive philosophy (think of that as coaching execution), Iowa's defense can help Iowa to have good seasons; Iowa's offense more often than not prevents Iowa from having great seasons.
That's not just perception. That's Kirk-by-his-numbers.
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