Key to Pitt loss... coaching mistake

H

hwks1

Well-Known Member
Here is another classic example of a coaching mistake that maybe cost Pitt the game

3rd QTR 5:00
4th and 2 at the Iowa 11

Pitt elects to take the 'safe' field goal.. get some points and go up 20-14

Trouble with that is a touchdown beats two field goals. Very high probability Pitt could have converted that 1st down and probably gotten the touchdown. If they don't make it Iowa is pinned.

Had Pitt gone for it and scored a touchdown, they go up 24-14..... being up 20-14 instead, really didn't help them very much.

Kirk would have also kicked the FG.... and historically Kirk loses this game too, if the situation was reversed
 
hwks1 said:
Here is another classic example of a coaching mistake that maybe cost Pitt the game

3rd QTR 5:00
4th and 2 at the Iowa 11

Pitt elects to take the 'safe' field goal.. get some points and go up 20-14

Trouble with that is a touchdown beats two field goals. Very high probability Pitt could have converted that 1st down and probably gotten the touchdown. If they don't make it Iowa is pinned.

Had Pitt gone for it and scored a touchdown, they go up 24-14..... being up 20-14 instead, really didn't help them very much.

Kirk would have also kicked the FG.... and historically Kirk loses this game too, if the situation was reversed
Click to expand...

Really? After watching Iowa go for it on 4th down this year, not sure....
 
Agreed. To be honest, Pitt's performance in this game was vintage Iowa. Build a good lead in the first half, slowly lose it in the second.
 
There are very few times when not going for it on 4th down and short is not the right play. I'm surprised the analytics of baseball and basketball have not caught up to football in this regard.

At the very worst Iowa starts on the 11 yard. I love that we are going for 4th downs consistently; we definitely lose today if we had not.
 
imported_ankle23 said:
Really? After watching Iowa go for it on 4th down this year, not sure....
Click to expand...

Kirk has been more aggressive on 4th down this year (pretty much has to be) but historically, if the situation was reversed (team, record, home, etc.) Kirk absolutely kicks the FG - and loses this game.
 
hwks1 said:
Here is another classic example of a coaching mistake that maybe cost Pitt the game

3rd QTR 5:00
4th and 2 at the Iowa 11

Pitt elects to take the 'safe' field goal.. get some points and go up 20-14

Trouble with that is a touchdown beats two field goals. Very high probability Pitt could have converted that 1st down and probably gotten the touchdown. If they don't make it Iowa is pinned.

Had Pitt gone for it and scored a touchdown, they go up 24-14..... being up 20-14 instead, really didn't help them very much.

Kirk would have also kicked the FG.... and historically Kirk loses this game too, if the situation was reversed
Click to expand...

So what you are essentially saying is that EVERY NFL coach makes the wrong decision because unless the clock is running down at the end of the first half or the end of the game, EVERY NFL coach kicks the field goal. The thinking is better to get points, ANY points, instead of the chance of coming up empty.
 
Knight78 said:
So what you are essentially saying is that EVERY NFL coach makes the wrong decision because unless the clock is running down at the end of the first half or the end of the game, EVERY NFL coach kicks the field goal. The thinking is better to get points, ANY points, instead of the chance of coming up empty.
Click to expand...
'

be careful with the logic! :)
 
Kicking the field goal there is 50/50 at worst. You still have to get the TD to make it worth it and that's no guarantee. We don't have the most consistent FG kickers so that's a big part of us going on 4th a lot lately, rightfully so.
 
Knight78 said:
So what you are essentially saying is that EVERY NFL coach makes the wrong decision because unless the clock is running down at the end of the first half or the end of the game, EVERY NFL coach kicks the field goal. The thinking is better to get points, ANY points, instead of the chance of coming up empty.
Click to expand...

Yes. They are making a decision that is worse for their team.

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf

This paper shows, however, that teams’ choices on fourth downs differ from the choices that would maximize their chances of winning in ways that are systematic and overwhelmingly statistically significant. Indeed, there are cases where teams consistently make choices that represent clear-cut and large departures from win-maximization.
Click to expand...

The paper points out, however, that it may be in the best interest of the coach to kick the field goal as he can avoid criticism by taking a suboptimal but conformist position. It is a form of the classic principal-agency problem of economics.
 
hawkfan340 said:
Yes. They are making a decision that is worse for their team.

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf



The paper points out, however, that it may be in the best interest of the coach to kick the field goal as he can avoid criticism by taking a suboptimal but conformist position. It is a form of the classic principal-agency problem of economics.
Click to expand...

Exactly. It's good for the coach. Not necessarily the team. It's not always prudent to play the percentages.
 
To further KansasHawkeye's point, the head coach, when he elects to kick the field goal instead of going for the first down/touchdown close to the goal line, isn't really playing the percentages for his team's win, he's playing the percentages for himself. If the field goal kicker makes the 3 from the field goal, at least the HC can point to the 3 points the team got on the drive instead of the 0 points if the first down/touchdown wasn't gained. He can say (if anyone gripes) well, at least our team got some points from the drive.
 
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