Jon's new article

[BigD]

The problem I have with things like this, is there are a bunch of people that wanna be this or wanna be that...and then they get pissy when what they wanna doesn't happen...they throw fits, tantrums, etc. And frankly, that's all on you for living in a world that isn't based in reality.

I think that at times I can get a little negative but that is usually spurred by someone making defeatist remarks and it just rubs me the wrong way. Also as you stated none of us likes it when we are having a tough year especially when we all high expectations.

Just a point of reference here;

Defeatism:

1. the attitude, policy, or conduct of a person who admits, expects, or no longer resists defeat, as because of a conviction that further struggle or effort is futile; pessimistic resignation.

*To be fair there are people on this forum who seem to reflect this description.

It’s not unrealistic for us to at least be able to match up with Wisconsin in any sport. In that respect we have to do better. Match up against Alabama? Now that would be unrealistic to have that level of expectations. We should be winning our division in equal amounts with Wisconsin. It’s going on three years we are due. If we get to 2020 and haven’t won the division at least once then KF should be fired. I give Fran one more year even if he doesn’t win another Big Ten game this year but he has to make a substantial improvement next season. I give him that because of the dumpster we were in when he got here. I think I am being totally fair and reasonable with both coaches.

 

[JonDMiller]

But you actually predicted 21 wins with a 10-8 B1G record which would put Iowa in the NCAAs.
https://www.hawkeyenation.com/basketball/miller-quick-iowa-basketball-prediction

Yeah, as I have said in following posts, I was responding about 16-17...and not sure how I got off on that track..My bad

 

[JonDMiller]

But you actually predicted 21 wins with a 10-8 B1G record which would put Iowa in the NCAAs.
https://www.hawkeyenation.com/basketball/miller-quick-iowa-basketball-prediction

https://hawkeyenation.com/forum/threads/jons-new-article.82042/page-14#post-1684622

 

[David79]

You could be right. That would mean the recruiting services were off, which is possible. But it would also mean Fran has a bad eye for talent. And that would be another argument for finding a coach with a good eye for talent.

If you go look at Iowa's recruiting in terms of where they rank in the Big Ten. They have only once finished in the top half and that is the class that had Woodbury and Gesell. Their classes are usually near the bottom of the Big Ten.

 

[Joshbrown]

Meh, that might look cool on a coffee mug sitting on your desk next to your framed Blvd of Broken Dreams poster you are still lugging around from college that nobody thinks is cool any more, but over hneuh in the real world, I may not like that brick wall...but there ain't no amount of time available where ramming my head against it is going to knock it down.

Everybody doesn't always get a trophy....just because I want something, doesn't mean that I get something. There are real barriers to entry that exist in the high echelon of P5 athletics....and there are some programs that have decades of better success, better traditions, larger state population and recruiting bases, etc, that Iowa does not have and never will have.

Yet....but I WANT IT!

By all means, knock yourself out with that waste of time. But please pardon me when I call it for what it is, and instead choose to stay grounded on the reality of things. that doesnt mean wave the white flag..it doesn't make the losses taste like garbage...sports, when you are not a blueblood, is about hope. But hope in something just for the sake of the outcome without a reality based assessment of how the sausage is made is idolatry.

Can we at least agree that bluebloods aren't ordained. There's nothing in the constitution which declares who will be a blueblood. Bluebloods are simply schools which demand a lot from their coaches. There's nothing magical about bluebloods, they just set high goals. And I'm willing to say bluebloods aren't permanent in their station. Sports imo is like society, we don't have a class system. Almost any P5 program can work their way to the top. Look at NW in football. They have serious handicaps but have changed their culture. That's where it starts, hiring someone like a Fitz or Fry who isn't always looking for an excuse after a loss.

 

[Joshbrown]

If you go look at Iowa's recruiting in terms of where they rank in the Big Ten. They have only once finished in the top half and that is the class that had Woodbury and Gesell. Their classes are usually near the bottom of the Big Ten.

Now you've lowered my opinion of Fran. And I'm the guy calling for his head. Credit goes to you fine sir.

 

[BlacknGold19]

Like I said previously in this thread. Iowa fans are hungry, rabid and passionate. I go into every season hoping it’s a special one in both Football and Basketball. But when we lose 5 games on the gridiron or have a brutal season in hoops I’m not going to scream for the firings of every coach possible because I WANT more. Yes we all WANT Iowa to contend for Sweet 16’s and higher every year or Big Ten West Championships every year. But that takes a LOT of luck with the amount of talent every other school in the conference or in the nation is bringing in and developing.

Iowa is going to have their share of good/great years here and there. But it’s realistically never going to happen EVERY year. The purpose of the article was it’s not time to panic, Fran has been successful recently until this season. But a lot of you WANT more and think we can always just turn the page and Iowa will suddenly be the next up and comer.

It’s not gonna happen. That’s my opinion. I don’t have a shit or defeatist attitude. I’m a good dad to my kids. I love Iowa sports. But I’ve matured into someone who doesn’t have the energy or time to complain that things aren’t good enough. We should all be thankful for Kirk Ferentz and Fran. They have done a lot of good for the state of Iowa. But to some of you that will never be good enough. That’s your problem.

 

[David79]

Sorry, for some reason, after reading through this entire thread, I thought the question was about last year....

No, for this year? This season has been a complete and total disaster to date, a huge disappointment.

Which the Iowa media did not see coming...but the national media picked Iowa 9th and 10th and 11th...they knew something we didn't. Still miffed about that

I think people got fooled by the couple games they won when Jok was out. There were plenty of games that Iowa was only in or they won simply because of Jok.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Sorry, for some reason, after reading through this entire thread, I thought the question was about last year....

No, for this year? This season has been a complete and total disaster to date, a huge disappointment.

Which the Iowa media did not see coming...but the national media picked Iowa 9th and 10th and 11th...they knew something we didn't. Still miffed about that

Even that might end up being high, at this rate.

Yeah, last year, I expected an NIT bid, after losing a big senior class from the year before. So I had no real problem with last year and thought the team improved down the stretch. But just losing Jok, I expected the team to at least hold ground or take a step forward and make the NCAA Tournament this year. Ooops. Not sure what the deal is.

Is losing Jok THAT big of a deal? Would adding him to this team make that huge of a difference? Maybe I'm wrong but I kinda doubt it. Thinking there are other problems. Just don't know what and don't want to even speculate.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Like I said previously in this thread. Iowa fans are hungry, rabid and passionate. I go into every season hoping it’s a special one in both Football and Basketball. But when we lose 5 games on the gridiron or have a brutal season in hoops I’m not going to scream for the firings of every coach possible because I WANT more. Yes we all WANT Iowa to contend for Sweet 16’s and higher every year or Big Ten West Championships every year. But that takes a LOT of luck with the amount of talent every other school in the conference or in the nation is bringing in and developing.

Iowa is going to have their share of good/great years here and there. But it’s realistically never going to happen EVERY year. The purpose of the article was it’s not time to panic, Fran has been successful recently until this season. But a lot of you WANT more and think we can always just turn the page and Iowa will suddenly be the next up and comer.

It’s not gonna happen. That’s my opinion. I don’t have a shit or defeatist attitude. I’m a good dad to my kids. I love Iowa sports. But I’ve matured into someone who doesn’t have the energy or time to complain that things aren’t good enough. We should all be thankful for Kirk Ferentz and Fran. They have done a lot of good for the state of Iowa. But to some of you that will never be good enough. That’s your problem.

I agree with your post. And the part I bolded, I'm fine with as well. It's just that with Iowa basketball, it's been a long time since we've had what I'd call anything close to a special season, like we've had in football here and there. It sucks, especially growing up loving Hawkeye hoops more than anything. I enjoy Iowa football, but hoops is in my blood.

Realizing these things doesn't make someone a defeatist. There's a difference between being a defeatist who accepts mediocrity, and being realistic. There's got to be a happy medium in there somewhere.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Can we at least agree that bluebloods aren't ordained. There's nothing in the constitution which declares who will be a blueblood. Bluebloods are simply schools which demand a lot from their coaches. There's nothing magical about bluebloods, they just set high goals. And I'm willing to say bluebloods aren't permanent in their station. Sports imo is like society, we don't have a class system. Almost any P5 program can work their way to the top. Look at NW in football. They have serious handicaps but have changed their culture. That's where it starts, hiring someone like a Fitz or Fry who isn't always looking for an excuse after a loss.

Bluebloods do change over time due to extended periods of success, but the main factors in making up blueblood programs are the inherent advantages those programs have, not in they just set high goals. Everyone in a P5 conference sets a goal of winning its conference and going to Final 4's. Very few do it. Because it's hard and it's a zero-sum existence. Someone has to win and someone has to lose.

We may not have a caste system, but within the Big 10 if you are coaching basketball at Indiana, MSU, Michigan or Ohio State it is far easier to win than at Iowa. Way more talent within 200 miles of your campus. I agree that any P5 school can work their way to the top, but it takes more things going right at certain schools than others. Mike Davis went to a Final 4. Mike Davis. Terrible coach. But Indiana is such a good job that he went to a Final 4. That is because Indiana is a blueblood.

Your example of Northwestern in football, really? You might compare Northwestern's accomplishments and record during KF's tenure and then get back to me. Hint: Iowa has been better than Northwestern. Conference and/or division titles, Iowa. Top 10 finishes, Iowa. Top 25 finishes, Iowa.

The winning of Kansas State during the Bill Snyder era is nothing short of remarkable. That doesn't make K-State a blueblood. When Snyder retired the first time, they quickly went to mediocre under Ron Prince. Snyder brought them back again. When Snyder finally retires for good, K-State will still be a hard place to win (although much better than it was before Snyder got there). It still is in a low-population state (less than 3M people) that it shares with anotehr P5 school. That sounds familiar for Iowa fans. Demographics and inherent advantages are why even crappy coaches like Mike Shula and Mike Dubose win 10+ games at Alabama and win their division. And why when they get the best coach in college FB, combined with the inherent advantages, they win 5 in 9 years or whatever streak Alabama is on now under Saban.

It doesn't mean schools like Iowa just give up. It means that winning at Iowa or Northwestern is a lot harder than at other schools. If you are coaching at Iowa, you flat out have to be better at your job than your cohorts at Ohio State or Michigan (and get some breaks) to win the conference.

 

[Joshbrown]

Bluebloods do change over time due to extended periods of success, but the main factors in making up blueblood programs are the inherent advantages those programs have, not in they just set high goals. Everyone in a P5 conference sets a goal of winning its conference and going to Final 4's. Very few do it. Because it's hard and it's a zero-sum existence. Someone has to win and someone has to lose.

We may not have a caste system, but within the Big 10 if you are coaching basketball at Indiana, MSU, Michigan or Ohio State it is far easier to win than at Iowa. Way more talent within 200 miles of your campus. I agree that any P5 school can work their way to the top, but it takes more things going right at certain schools than others. Mike Davis went to a Final 4. Mike Davis. Terrible coach. But Indiana is such a good job that he went to a Final 4. That is because Indiana is a blueblood.

Your example of Northwestern in football, really? You might compare Northwestern's accomplishments and record during KF's tenure and then get back to me. Hint: Iowa has been better than Northwestern. Conference and/or division titles, Iowa. Top 10 finishes, Iowa. Top 25 finishes, Iowa.

The winning of Kansas State during the Bill Snyder era is nothing short of remarkable. That doesn't make K-State a blueblood. When Snyder retired the first time, they quickly went to mediocre under Ron Prince. Snyder brought them back again. When Snyder finally retires for good, K-State will still be a hard place to win (although much better than it was before Snyder got there). It still is in a low-population state (less than 3M people) that it shares with anotehr P5 school. That sounds familiar for Iowa fans. Demographics and inherent advantages are why even crappy coaches like Mike Shula and Mike Dubose win 10+ games at Alabama and win their division. And why when they get the best coach in college FB, combined with the inherent advantages, they win 5 in 9 years or whatever streak Alabama is on now under Saban.

It doesn't mean schools like Iowa just give up. It means that winning at Iowa or Northwestern is a lot harder than at other schools. If you are coaching at Iowa, you flat out have to be better at your job than your cohorts at Ohio State or Michigan (and get some breaks) to win the conference.

I don't understand why Indiana is supposed to be better than Iowa in basketball. It's not that way in football, so why is it that way in basketball?
If you say they have built something, I would agree. But they built something based on coaches with high standards. And those coaches are not limited to certain schools.
Why has Illinois under-performed so much? Large population, so why? I would argue it starts at the top. Just like at every other school it starts at the top.

EDIT: I'll even expand it into forbidden territory. Japan is an economic super-power. Why? It's not because of natural resources. The UK was a super-power for centuries. Small Island with minimal resources dominated for a long time. Why? I say it's because they saw themselves as a giant. That's just ambition and self-esteem winning the day.

 

[InGoodCo]

Pretty common knowledge about the high number of guys that are Mc D's AA, and how they get there. For someone who thinks they know a lot about basketball, and who does more than a fair share of telling other people they're wrong, one would think you'd know this info.

I said I was wrong, and I am sorry, what more do you want?

 

[NikeHawk21]

There are real barriers to entry that exist in the high echelon of P5 athletics....and there are some programs that have decades of better success, better traditions, larger state population and recruiting bases, etc, that Iowa does not have and never will have.

Whenever I hear this argument, I just pull out the ultimate trump card. Wisconsin.

I have never once heard a rational argument on why Iowa can’t strive for the excellence that Wisconsin has. I haven’t, and I suspect I won’t.

Madison is a slightly nicer city, but for the most part the two schools are not that much different. Both midwestern schools who recruit the same area. Until the last 20 years I think Iowa had a better tradition in both football and basketball. So what changed?

They created a culture that demands success. Their Ad demands it, their media demands it, and their fans demand it. Their athletic department is running absolute circles around Iowa. It hasn’t been one coach or great instate talent, it’s been a culture of consistent success in both major sports over the last 10+ years.

I live in Madison and I’m around these people every day. There are fans literally calling for Gard’s head. This is following four strait runs of the sweet 16 or better, Includind two with Gard, and having two major injuries on the current team. Could you imagine Iowa in that situation? Now Gard will probably get next year but you can bet your bottom dollar if he misses the tournament two years in a row he’s gone. Their AD has stones and demands winning.

So can you or anyone explain to me why Iowa can’t do what Wisconsin is doing?

 

[JonDMiller]

Can we at least agree that bluebloods aren't ordained. There's nothing in the constitution which declares who will be a blueblood. Bluebloods are simply schools which demand a lot from their coaches. There's nothing magical about bluebloods, they just set high goals. And I'm willing to say bluebloods aren't permanent in their station. Sports imo is like society, we don't have a class system. Almost any P5 program can work their way to the top. Look at NW in football. They have serious handicaps but have changed their culture. That's where it starts, hiring someone like a Fitz or Fry who isn't always looking for an excuse after a loss.

They are not ordained...but they typically have a few things in common, like in business.

EARLY ADOPTERS: In the sports sense, they were very successful early and often...those traditions attracted others..and have made those places as destinations....continued success at the highest level over decades. I would put UCLA, Indiana, UNC, Duke, MSU, Kansas in this level..probably forgetting a few more.

CHALLENGERS: I's rare when someone can come in and compete at the highest of high levels from outside the early adopter class...sorry, come in and compete and STAY THERE

Here are some examples..some came in and went toe to toe for a long while, and faded..some have not faded...

UConn, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Cincy, Purdue, Louisville, Seton Hall, Arizona, Memphis, St Johns, Syracuse....

For a decade, 1979-1988, Iowa had an average B1G finish of 3.5....in a 10 team league...one of the best 10 year stretches in school history....they also had a good but shorter runs in the 50's, and shorter still in the Late 60's...there are several more programs like this...but they cannot sustain it...the hope is to move from this last group into the challenger group....which is not easy at all...but to go from this group to be on part year in year out with the elite of the elite, who are also not immune to blips, is nigh on impossible.

So I choose not to toss pennies into the wishing well and waste time, and spend time thinking about what can be done to go from the here and gone, to more consistently here, and cross fingers to get into the challengers...but I am not betting on it.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Like I said previously in this thread. Iowa fans are hungry, rabid and passionate. I go into every season hoping it’s a special one in both Football and Basketball. But when we lose 5 games on the gridiron or have a brutal season in hoops I’m not going to scream for the firings of every coach possible because I WANT more. Yes we all WANT Iowa to contend for Sweet 16’s and higher every year or Big Ten West Championships every year. But that takes a LOT of luck with the amount of talent every other school in the conference or in the nation is bringing in and developing.

Iowa is going to have their share of good/great years here and there. But it’s realistically never going to happen EVERY year. The purpose of the article was it’s not time to panic, Fran has been successful recently until this season. But a lot of you WANT more and think we can always just turn the page and Iowa will suddenly be the next up and comer.

It’s not gonna happen. That’s my opinion. I don’t have a shit or defeatist attitude. I’m a good dad to my kids. I love Iowa sports. But I’ve matured into someone who doesn’t have the energy or time to complain that things aren’t good enough. We should all be thankful for Kirk Ferentz and Fran. They have done a lot of good for the state of Iowa. But to some of you that will never be good enough. That’s your problem.

Reference my above post. Why can Wisconsin do it but Iowa can’t? There isn’t really an explanation.

 

[kicker22]

If we went that route, Iowa would be known as a coaching graveyard. The odds of destroying a program are way higher than the odds of becoming a great program.

People always point to Wisconsin (and MSU in this thread) as programs that are excellent because they didn't settle for mediocre. They are wrong. They settled for it forever until it was time for a standard coaching change, then caught lightning in a bottle. They didn't fire coach after coach because settling for average is a losers mentality. In fact, what Iowa did with Davis is way more extreme than either of those two programs did.

I'm not saying fire them because settling for average is a losers mentality. I'm saying why do we hold on to mediocre with the hopes that they right the ship. I don't see how Iowa becomes a "coaches graveyard" if we decide to get rid of Fran after 8 years. We're not talking about hiring and firing year in and year out. Give them a few years to prove themselves and if it doesn't work then move on. Why go long term for a coach with mediocre results? If we land a coach with similar success to Bo Ryan or Tom Izzo then by all means lock them up long term, but I simply don't understand the Fran needs more time to right the ship mentality.

 

[DodgerHawki]

I don't understand why Indiana is supposed to be better than Iowa in basketball. It's not that way in football, so why is it that way in basketball?
If you say they have built something, I would agree. But they built something based on coaches with high standards. And those coaches are not limited to certain schools.
Why has Illinois under-performed so much? Large population, so why? I would argue it starts at the top. Just like at every other school it starts at the top.

EDIT: I'll even expand it into forbidden territory. Japan is an economic super-power. Why? It's not because of natural resources. The UK was a super-power for centuries. Small Island with minimal resources dominated for a long time. Why? I say it's because they saw themselves as a giant. That's just ambition and self-esteem winning the day.

Do you follow basketball at all, and the number of Division I players that are turned out each year by high schools in Indiana compared to Iowa? It's about 4 or 5 to 1 in terms of Division I talent every year coming out of Indiana compared to Iowa. High school basketball is a quasi-religion in Indiana. Indiana has been to the Final 4 8 times, and won the whole thing 5 times. Iowa has been to the Final 4 3 times, with zero titles. Indiana has won the regular season conference title 22 times. Iowa has won it 8 times, none since 1979.

To put it simply, the talent level of the players who are predisposed to go to Indiana is far better -- on average -- than the talent of those players predisposed to go to Iowa. Just saying that we should be better and expect better doesn't make it so. What is the pitch that Fran or any coach should use in talking to a great player from Indianapolis on why they should go 500 miles away to Iowa City and not 70 miles down the road to Bloomington? If you choose to believe the only thing stopping Iowa from being a blueblood is trying harder or a mindset, I can't help you.

 

[InGoodCo]

I mean, I dont want to get into a debate on what the definition of warm is. If they don't make the tournament next year, that will be very not good...I have no idea what the fallout would be because I am not the one in charge.

This is where I am too - He's not really feeling the heat right now, nor should he. His program is healthy albeit even in an incredibly down season. The players like playing for him. They have a family like atmosphere. There's just something disjointed right now, and IMO, there hasn't been signs of that leading up to this season. The team seems miserable - there's no answer on the team right now. I expect some shake ups in the off season - This season is testing everything they know and have I am sure and after this type of year, no one in the world knows the pressure to win more then Fran. thanks for engaging Jon.

 

[JonDMiller]

Whenever I hear this argument, I just pull out the ultimate trump card. Wisconsin.

I have never once heard a rational argument on why Iowa can’t strive for the excellence that Wisconsin has. I haven’t, and I suspect I won’t.

Madison is a slightly nicer city, but for the most part the two schools are not that much different. Both midwestern schools who recruit the same area. Until the last 20 years I think Iowa had a better tradition in both football and basketball. So what changed?

They created a culture that demands success. Their Ad demands it, their media demands it, and their fans demand it. Their athletic department is running absolute circles around Iowa. It hasn’t been one coach or great instate talent, it’s been a culture of consistent success in both major sports over the last 10+ years.

I live in Madison and I’m around these people every day. There are fans literally calling for Gard’s head. This is following four strait runs of the sweet 16 or better, Includind two with Gard, and having two major injuries on the current team. Could you imagine Iowa in that situation? Now Gard will probably get next year but you can bet your bottom dollar if he misses the tournament two years in a row he’s gone. Their AD has stones and demands winning.

So can you or anyone explain to me why Iowa can’t do what Wisconsin is doing?

Yeah, they are absolutely an outlier freak example, I grant you that and just talked about it a bit in another post. But this sort of breaking through the barrier is just so rare...but perhaps, since they did it in two sports, it has a lot to do with the right leadership.