It worked out but...

[ibahawkeye]

I'm just gonna leave this here:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/yet_another_study_about_fouling_when_up_3

That's interesting. The sample size for defend is much higher than the sample size for fouling.

I also wonder in these cases... I know it included referenced the Ben Brust heave against Mich as a failure for defending.

My question is how many cases in the sample size for defend are listed as successful in similar plays? If it's a half court shot... sure give it up and take your chances. Becuase there are surely going to be a lot more examples of shots missing than falling that are similar to the Ben Brust shot.

But if there is enough time for a team to get a legit look at a 3 such as happened last night, I want a foul.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

I tend to agree with the fouling strategy if there's little time left.. Inside of 10 seconds left, the odds of the player making the first, missing the second on purpose, getting the offensive rebound and scoring seem very slim. It's not a guarantee obviously, but I like your odds in that situation if you're the team up 3.

How many times have we seen a 3 ball go in to tie the game and force OT? I like not giving your opponent that opportunity.

 

[ISUhawk]

Based off of this teams history of shooting from the line at the end of games, I would go with us continuing to force tough shots. Good choice by Fran!