It's the same formula that Ohio State rode to winning the whole thing in 2002, so why not?
I've heard this said a few times and it's a great comment, one problem - it's just not true. They had a few close games (5 x less than 7pts), but they had their share of blowouts too. If Iowa wins their last 4 games, but the wins against Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern are not convincing... they will not play for a national championship if Florida/Alabama and Texas are undefeated. For that matter, they may not be able to beat out a one loss USC if that's the case.
OHIO STATE 2002
8.24 Texas Tech 45-21 (24pts)
9.7 Kent State 51-17 (34pts)
9.14 Washington State 25-7 (18pts)
9.21 @Cincinnati 23-19 (4pts)
9.28 Indiana 45-17 (28pts)
10.5 @Northwestern 27-16 (11pts)
10.12 SanJose St 50-7 (43pts)
10.19 @Wisconsin 19-14 (5pts)
10.26 Penn State 13-7 (6pts)
11.2 Minnesota 34-3 (31pts)
11.9 @Purdue 10-6 (4pts)
11.16 @Illinois 23-16 (OT) (7pts)
11.23 Michigan 14-9 (5pts)
1.3 Miama 31-24 (OT) (7pts)
That's 5 big wins (> 21pts). Iowa has 1! ONE! (Iowa State) With close wins to UNI (now with three losses) and ASU (now with 4 losses) our resume is not CLOSE to the OSU resume of 2002. That coupled with the perception that the Big-10 is down this year (probably due to last year's bowl appearances... but 1-5 is a bad showing)... Iowa has to win a couple of these last games by a significant margin if they want to play after Jan 1. The "computer love" will go down three of these last four weeks with the quality of competition, so we need to "wow" the humans.
It's easy when we love our team to lose perspective, but the national "doubters" are not really that far off when you look at the numbers. I believe ALL of football is down a bit this year and think Iowa can hang with any of them... but in the end it doesn't matter what I think as a fan (or that our coach continues with the mantra "a win is a win"), but the humans that vote - say what we want - they matter, a lot.
So - to answer the OP directly, I sure hope not! Go Hawks!