Is it possible that Iowa is just unlucky?

guffus

guffus

Well-Known Member
Iowa has played 5 games in 2018 that were close late in the 4Q. ISU, Wisc, PSU, Purdue, & NW. Iowa ended up 1-4 in those 5 games, including losing the last 4.

Historically over time, Iowa ususlly ends up winning about 48% of these close games. This has been proven through statistical analysis.

Isn't it logical to assume that this 2018 team is simply unlucky. In an even luck year, Iowa would be 8-2. If this was one of those lucky years instead, Iowa would be 9-1 right now.
 
On some level, yes. Iowa tends to win and lose those close games in spurts. We won pretty much all of them in '03 and '04 and then had a big drought in close games. We won them all starting late in '08 and '09 pre-Stanzi injury, then had another prolonged drought. Won them all again in 2015 until the conference title game. And here we are on another prolonged drought. I just hope we can bunch the wins all together for next year. I'd much rather take a dogturd like this one and then get 11 or 12 wins next year than get two years of 9 or 10 wins assuming an even distribution of the wins and losses.

Only thing that worries me is that the caliber of QB play has gotten so good that our defense can't be relied on to shut down late drives they used to do about 10 years ago or more.
 
Some very self-inflicted bad plays/luck. even when PU had 4th and 2 on their last drive it looked like Hesse stumbled or would have made real good contact with blough at the LOS.
 
Part of creating your own luck is being clutch in pressure situations . We tend to shit our pants by playing and coaching scared.
 
It is, but should not be. Good teams perform well enough that no reasonable amount of bad luck will cost them the game. If you play for the chance at a coin toss every game, you are going to lose half of the time. No college coach survives a perpetual .500 win percentage.

At a Big Ten school, where teams pay visitors for at least two wins, that would make for an automatic 7 - 5. That should be the floor for a coach in the big, because that is equal to a .500 record in the American Athletic Conference, for example.

Does 7 - 5 sound like a familiar floor to anyone around here?
 
smitharooney said:
Part of creating your own luck is being clutch in pressure situations . We tend to shit our pants by playing and coaching scared.
Click to expand...

Except we haven't lost that way 1 time this season. This team is neither conservative or scared. They just F up too much.
 
guffus said:
Iowa has played 5 games in 2018 that were close late in the 4Q. ISU, Wisc, PSU, Purdue, & NW. Iowa ended up 1-4 in those 5 games, including losing the last 4.

Historically over time, Iowa ususlly ends up winning about 48% of these close games. This has been proven through statistical analysis.

Isn't it logical to assume that this 2018 team is simply unlucky. In an even luck year, Iowa would be 8-2. If this was one of those lucky years instead, Iowa would be 9-1 right now.
Click to expand...


NO
 
Adam said:
Except we haven't lost that way 1 time this season. This team is neither conservative or scared. They just F up too much.
Click to expand...
Eh up to last week I would have agreed with you 100%. Until then the playcalling was respectable and only hampered by execution or Stanley simply having a horrid day (when you can't throw the ball with consistency it certainly puts you in a box), but the lack of production by the run game, Stanley's regression since PSU, and leaving guys like Fant on the sideline is maddening.
 
And the counter argument would be that Iowa just isn't that good. This is just who Iowa is. I don't subscribe to that, but I understand why some would.
 
Adam said:
Except we haven't lost that way 1 time this season. This team is neither conservative or scared. They just F up too much.
Click to expand...
The coaching staff is scared to try new things . Try a spread offense? Stanley plays scared . Hesitant to try and attack the safeties. Scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit . Instead he just chucks it into the turf. Penn st and northwestern was played in fear
 
smitharooney said:
Part of creating your own luck is being clutch in pressure situations . We tend to shit our pants by playing and coaching scared.
Click to expand...

This is where the coaching can eliminate some of these close games. There have been many games the last few years where we have had the momentum and significant chances to solidify our position in the standings but the coaching is so tight and the emphasis has been on not making mistakes and playing close that when mistakes are made then the game is too out of hand to make the correction or the coaching staff is unable to correct these.

That is one explanation why we can completely embarrass Ohio State and then come out and play conservative and shy against other teams that we have had big advantages over. I actually thought the game plan was good against Penn State but the play of Stanley killed us. Purdue wasn't great but we made some big Mistakes. Wisconsin we outplayed them most of the game but the turnovers killed us.

The biggest thing that is hurting Iowa but also helps them to a point is the perception of this Identity that Iowa has and what the coaching staff wants to do. It is great to have an identity but it is a major fault to stay with that identity when 1) your talent doesn't allow it or work well with that style of play 2) It hinders your game plan when you are stubborn and refuse to play to your game advantages because you are Iowa and you need to establish the run because that is what we do. I really thought there would be some better game planning because of Brian's experience with New England because they play with their strengths and weaknesses on a game to game basis, but that has not been the case
 
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