is Iowa's game v Michigan a Must Win? That and Prediction

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

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[FONT=&quot]Iowa is6-4 heading into its final two games. They’ve reached bowl eligibilitybut they aren’t contending for a league or even division title, so why wouldsomeone say this is a must win game?[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The program needs it. The fans need it. Kirk Ferentzneeds it. If there is to be a Ferentz 3.0, it begins Saturday in KinnickStadium.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]FERENTZ 1.0:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot] Weall remember the losing streak, we remember the Hawkeyes being bullied aroundby the rest of the Big Ten. That all changed on November 4th, 2000 whenIowa topped Penn State in overtime in Happy Valley. That turned out to be theline..’Here, and no further’. Iowa beat a ranked Northwestern team thefollowing week before losing at Minnesota in the season finale as Bob Sandersand Benny Sapp watched from the sidelines due to injury. 2001 then turnedinto the build up season for what would become one of the most successful runsin Iowa history. Between 2002-2003 Iowa won 31 games and lost just seven. They finished each of those seasons ranked 8th in the nation, somethingthat had not happened since the 1950′s. They won at least 10 games ineach of those years. That success allowed the Kinnick renovations to takeplace, something Iowa badly needed.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]FERENTZ 2.0:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Iowa was5-4 heading int0 it’s home game against #3 Penn State in 2008. Just a fewweeks back, Iowa sat at 3-3 and there were more than a few people calling forFerentz’s head. The Hawkeyes were coming off of a 6-6 year where theymissed out on a bowl game because they were handled by Western Michigan in theseason finale. The Hawkeyes beat Penn State on a last second field goalto get to 6-4 and they went on to win their last two regular season games toget to 8-4 in addition to topping South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. That season helped lay the foundation for the 2009 season, which was a) avery fun ride, b) a very lucky ride and c) another growth year for the program. This led to the practice facility renovations that are taking place todayand will be finished in July as Iowa will move into a state of the art footballfacility. The indoor practice facility is already done and among the bestin the sport and the new football offices and locker rooms will catch up thissummer. This is a huge recruiting tool as Iowa’s locker rooms and playerslounge area and such had fallen behind their peers.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]FERENTZ 3.0? [/FONT][FONT=&quot]I guess it doesn’t HAVE to startSaturday for it to happen, but it needs to. Beating this Michigan teamwould not be akin to knocking off 2008 Penn State in Kinnick, but it would getIowa to 7-4 with a shot at an Outback Bowl the following week against a beatableNebraska. Simply put, this is the spot where Ferentz has shone throughduring most of his time in Iowa City; when he is the underdog and his team hasa chance to grasp another rung. I am not saying his teams have routinelytaken advantage of opportunities, because the 2010 season is an exhibit to thecontrary. This is where Iowa and Wisconsin’s programs has been differentthe last decade or so as the Badgers have repeatedly taken advantage of theopportunities before it.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]However, Iowa has an opportunity before it and they are coming offof a bye week. It will be senior day in Iowa City, the last time the seniorslace it up in Kinnick. Their time in Kinnick has been as spotty as anysenior class Iowa has had since the group said goodbye in 2000, but theycan help to cement the foundation for Ferentz 3.0.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Win this game and you’re at least 7-4. 7-4 with a winagainst Michigan on your resume, even though this isn’t Meee-chigan, is a goodthing. Do that and you’ve got a shot at 8-4 and a pretty darn good year. 6-6 is kiss your sister, what most people expected and then people countup the missed opportunities all year. 7-4 is miles apart from 6-6 and 8-4is a serving of crow that most every one of us would need to slurp down for themajority of 2014.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The fact is 7-4 is right there and 8-4 is possible. Iowashould be able to have a considerable edge at the line of scrimmage on bothsides of the ball. Iowa’s defensive ends just need to set the edgeagainst Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner and let the tackles and linebackersswoop in and put him on his backside, something that has happened 19 times(sacks) in the past three games. Michigan State has a great defense andheld Michigan to negative yards rushing. Nebraska’s rushing defense isnot good; it’s right around average at 64th in the nation. They heldMichigan to negative yards rushing.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Michigan struggles to run the ball, ranking 95th in the nationwhere Iowa ranks 13th in the nation in rushing defense. The Wolverinesare 51st in passing offense and while Iowa will need to keep track of JeremyGallon, this is not a Michigan team which has those ‘wow’ receivers on it andtheir pass catching tight ends are not physical yet to be a big boost in therunning game.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Is Michigan going to be a pushover? No. Iowa is goingto have to win this game. But I will be very disappointed if they don’twin this game and the Hawkeyes remaina five and a half to six-point favorite in Vegas. The weatheris shaping up to favor a game where a line of scrimmage advantage becomes evenmore pronounced as throwing the ball for half of the game (when you are goingnorth) is going to be difficult; the forecast is for a high in the mid-20′swith North to Northwest winds between 15 and 20mph. This might be one ofthose games where Ferentz chooses to take the wind as it could come down to alast second field goal and you’ll definitely wanting to be going South if thathappens…like against Penn State in 2008.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Get to 7-4 and then only the most bitter fans complain in the offseason and you can just ask them to leave the room when they start yapping. Get to 8-4 and those folks need to move to another block and go rain onanother parade. This game is there for the taking. The Hawkeyes arerested and as healthy as they have been late in a season since 2002. Given the weather, I doubt we’ll see too much ‘cute’ from the offense,but hopefully a lot of power sets where Mark Weisman can flourish and whenMichigan begins cheating and overplaying Iowa’s zone scheme (which they will),Jordan Canzeri can knife them on cutbacks and rip off some big plays.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]In the end, I just like Iowa in this game as they beat Michiganinto submission. Is it truly a must win? Probably not, as nobodywill lose their job if Iowa doesn’t win. That said, it is a must win fora mostly low key offseason where people are looking forward to the 2014campaign, their thoughts focused on the possibilities rather than the missedopportunities of the year just concluded: IOWA 20, Michigan 13.[/FONT]
 
As you note, no one's job is on the line, there's no BCS bowl eligibility at stake, so no, it's not a must-win. Still, it would be a nice victory to get and a great way for the seniors to leave Kinnick for the last time as players. It would boost the psyche of everyone involved with the program. Win again next week in Lincoln and see where the chips fall. I think the Hawks take the first step tomorrow: Iowa dominates in the trenches on a bad weather day and the running game is enough to set up two TDs and a field goal. Michigan's points come off a pick six. Iowa 17-7.
 
Would have been nice if NW could have beaten them last week that would have definitely been the knockout blow for the rest of their season. iowa gets out to early 10-0 lead, Michigan panicks and starts turning the ball over, then they quit and go through the motions.


Iowa 27 Michigan 10
 
I'm hoping this game sets up for UM as the Minny game up there set up for Iowa in 2010. Deflated, not up to expectations, go on the road in miserable conditions against a team that has a whole lot to play for.
 
Weather condidtions are going to turn this into a very low scoring game. Both teams have stout defenses (going by the stats), and it's not like Iowa has an advantage in the passing game. Michigan will force us to try and throw, and it's up to Jake and the WR to connect on what plays we can (especially with the wind).

It'll come down to turnovers.

I really have no idea who wins, but i think the score could be something like 9-6 or 10-7
 
DBAHawkFan said:
Weather condidtions are going to turn this into a very low scoring game. Both teams have stout defenses (going by the stats), and it's not like Iowa has an advantage in the passing game. Michigan will force us to try and throw, and it's up to Jake and the WR to connect on what plays we can (especially with the wind).

It'll come down to turnovers.

I really have no idea who wins, but i think the score could be something like 9-6 or 10-7
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11 men in the box for Michigan maybe? At least when we are heading into the wind. It will maybe come down to turnovers and field position.
 
Ferentz's job is not on the line, they have gotten back to being bowl eligible in a season many thought Iowa would finish dead last. But a win or 2 to finish the season would put a lot less pressure on next season. A 6-7 finish would still leave plenty of pressure on the coaching staff along with an irritated fan base, even winning only 1 of the final 3 will still leave plenty of unrest. Of course winning the bowl game goes a long way and ends the season on a good note.
 
I think we'll get in with 6 especially if 8 teams go to bowling. We're tied with Penn State with the 7th spot right now and they have Nebraska and Wisconsin. Beating Michigan would confirm our boarding passes. Here are my Iowa bowl invite predictions.

 
Skeets77 said:
I think we'll get in with 6 especially if 8 teams go to bowling. We're tied with Penn State with the 7th spot right now and they have Nebraska and Wisconsin. Beating Michigan would confirm our boarding passes. Here are my Iowa bowl invite predictions.
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Iowa is pretty much guaranteed a bowl game as I doubt the Big Ten even fills all their bowl slots. Penn State is not bowl eligible due to the Sandusky/Paterno stuff.
 
I think this is a HUUUGE stretch.

We could lose this week, win next week against what Jon describes as a beatableNebraska team and win a bowl game. 8-5 with a bowl win would be plenty of momentum for this team. I think people are forgetting how little expectations were going into the season. I predicted 6 wins and was considered optimistic.
 
I don't think this is a must win. If Iowa was 5-5 right now with a road game at Nebraska next week I'd say yes. But they have their bowl game and extra practices secured.

Would be nice to send the SRs out with a home win and to have wins in 4 of the last 5 against Michigan though.
 
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[FONT=&amp]Get to 7-4 and then only the most bitter fans complain in the offseason and you can just ask them to leave the room when they start yapping. Get to 8-4 and those folks need to move to another block and go rain onanother parade[/FONT][FONT=&amp][/FONT]
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this would be the very best reason of all.
 
Quieting the whiners in the off-season would be a wonderful thing. To really do that Iowa would have had to win the Big Ten and Rose Bowl or national title, but 9-4 would suffice for all but the most crazed.
 
Not a must win, but a win could be a springboard that people look back on as the start of another Mini run by the Hawks. If they win tomorrow and can beat Nebby, that will be a ton of Momentum going into 2014.
 
deanvogs said:
Not a must win, but a win could be a springboard that people look back on as the start of another Mini run by the Hawks. If they win tomorrow and can beat Nebby, that will be a ton of Momentum going into 2014.
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Both games are against good, well-coached opponents. The guys have been practicing hard this week and we hope that momentum will continue into Saturday. We'll need to execute in order to win both of these games. <snort>
 
I do believe we lost at least one game this year due to execution. Anyway, it's a must win insofar as it's going to be in the 20's, with a strong nw wind, and if we lose, people will be angry.
 
deanvogs said:
Not a must win, but a win could be a springboard that people look back on as the start of another Mini run by the Hawks. If they win tomorrow and can beat Nebby, that will be a ton of Momentum going into 2014.
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Agreed. Win out and beat an SEC team in the Outback and we probably end up being ranked in the final poll.
 
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