JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The Iowa-Penn State game is the biggest on Iowa's schedule thus far and could prove to be perhaps the most important game of the season.
Of course, if Iowa is playing at Nebraska for a chance to go to the Big Ten title game, that game would be bigger than this one, so I get that. However, I feel this is a must-win game for Iowa if they want to get to that position.
Coaches dismiss talk like this and will say the next game on the schedule is the most important. I realize if you keep winning the next one, things take care of themselves.
Yet this game seems like an incredible harbinger to me. Here are some reasons why I feel that way..
CLARIFYING OFFENSIVE IDENTITY: This season has been fascinating to me, and continues to be that way. Before the year, Kirk Ferentz said September was going to be such a critical month for this team, which was clearly going to be in a developmental stage this year replacing so many key parts. Most Ferentz teams are developmental teams; squads that are typically much different in October and November than they were in September.
To me, this year may be the total embodiment of that developmental program motif.
We all felt the offense would have to carry the team in September while the defense figured out who and what it was. That proved to be true, yet I didn't expect to see the offense introduce a new Ferentz-era wrinkle and do it so well, in the form of the no-huddle.
Don't get me wrong; I am not trying to blow this wrinkle out of proportion. It's not like Iowa is reinventing the game of football here, but they are reinventing themselves to some degree. Iowa is using more 311 looks this year than in the past; three receivers, one tight end and one running back. They are flexing the tight end to the slot out of that personnel group, with KMM in the opposite slot and the running back next to the quarterback in shotgun. There have been times they have sent the running back out into a passing flank out of motion, or even pre-snap.
Iowa has run some of those formations in the past, but never so early in a game and as often as they have. So while the defense has been searching for its identity, the offense has undergone an extreme makeover. At least, it's extreme for a Kirk Ferentz coached Iowa team.
Ferentz has said this week that this year's team may wind up passing the ball more than it runs it, but that it will still run the football. Ferentz has also joked through the years that Iowa is a blitz magnet.
The reason Iowa has been a blitz magnet seem fairly obvious; when you line up in I-formations and intend to run the ball, you invite a lot of defenders in the box and opposing defensive coordinators are more easily able to commit assets to the blitz because Iowa has not made them pay through the air for such aggressiveness.
This year, teams are going to have to rethink that strategy and they won't be able to send as many assets to rush the passer out of the more 'spread-like' formations.
But Iowa doesn't have to become a pass heavy team out of these formations. When you 'spread' out the defense, you force the linebackers to take a few more steps to the outside. That's when you can hand the ball off to Coker or whomever is in the backfield and run the ball against a much less congested box. I think Iowa will attack this aspect during the Big Ten season, and once they do that, teams are going to have to make a choice.
That choice will not be an easy one, because of the dangerous options Iowa has at receiver this year. This offensive line is going to get much better, of that I have no doubt. Spread formations will make their job easier, as they won't have as many blitzers to pick up. This offense could become very, very balanced out of these more 'wide open' formations. They don't have to become a pass heavy team, as this is not a 2004 situation. I cannot wait to see what the coaches have in store for the Big Ten season and the prospects of exciting offensive production is the reason why.
Penn State's defense is going to be the biggest test Iowa will have faced to date and one of the three biggest tests they will face all year.
CLARIFYING DEFENSIVE IDENTITY: This defense is much closer to its peak than the offense is and the offense has a much higher peak than the defense. Right now, it looks like this Iowa defense is going to have to take more chances than it has in the past in order to get pressure on the quarterback. It may have to commit those same resources to slow down an opponents running game.
Penn State is going to be one of the few teams Iowa faces this year that will play more 'traditional' football on offense. There will be more hat on hat blocking in this game, more power football than Iowa has seen in its first four games combined. Iowa will see this again against Michigan State and somewhat against Nebraska, but that's it. Northwestern runs a spread, Indiana and Minnesota cannot play power football, Michigan is trending that way but still has spread elements and Purdue is in a big transition.
The Nittany Lions are going to probe the Iowa defensive line with Silas Redd. I think they will run right at Iowa and see how the Hawkeyes choose to defend the run. Iowa will likely start the game in their traditional 4-3, and I expect Penn State to have success moving the ball early. It will be interesting to see how long Iowa chooses to sit in it's base defense before it brings some heat, either in the form of blitzes to support the run or put pressure on the passers.
Penn State has the most turnovers of any team in the Big Ten thus far this year. They had two redzone turnovers last week against Indiana. This is not a great offense, but it's not a great Iowa defense.
How quickly and often Iowa chooses to get aggressive on defense may prove to be a harbinger for the rest of the year. The bye week could not have come at a better time for both sides of the ball, but especially for Norm Parker. I really think the staff has a plan in place, put in place last week, for how to navigate the rest of the season with regards to the identity of this defense.
IMPACT OF YOUTH: Iowa has played 10 true freshmen this year, with nine of them still in the mix (McCall is out with an ankle injury). Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock are certainly in the spotlight, as they are running backs and will have the ball in their hands.
How will Iowa use them over the last eight games?
Canzeri is not going to be a big time pass blocker; he's too small this year and who knows how good (or big) he will get in this area over his career. Hoping for him to become 'adequate' is probably the best to expect. That can present a problem as defenses may be able to notice tendencies when he is in the game, as in 'Iowa is not likely going to pass' when Canzeri is in the game...or at least, the passing plays Iowa may run when Canzeri is in the game may be more of the quick hit variety. Perhaps I am looking too far down the rabbit hole.
Bullock picked up two pass rushers against ULM, if you want to call it that. He did take them on, he took them on high, and he was planted on his backside both times. But hey, if the rusher doesn't sack the quarterback, or get too much pressure to where it altars the quarterback's delivery, it's a win. He is bigger than Canzeri and also has change of pace speed as a ball carrier and will be an asset in passing routes out of the backfield, but his future is likely moving back to the slot, where he began the year.
McCall and Coker will most likely handle the running load next year and with Marvin McNutt moving on to the NFL in 2011, you will see KMM move out wide, leaving a slot opportunity for Bullock and others. But for this year, Bullock is staying in the backfield.
I am very excited to see how Iowa uses these two backs between the 20's; Canzeri is certainly going to see time when the ball is in this area of the field, as he is not someone you are going to send into the line of scrimmage down in the redzone where there is less room to run.
All of these things, and more, will be on display for all to see this weekend against Penn State. I think Iowa loads a game plan that includes the kitchen sink. You win this game, it means you are one-up on the road against every division rival but Michigan State, who won a road game last week. For Iowa, that' a pretty important road win as two of their final three road games are against Minnesota and Purdue, two of the three worst teams in the Big Ten.
The other 'worst team' is Indiana, and you have them at home. It's at Penn State, home against Northwestern and Indiana then at Minnesota. Beat Penn State, and a 4-0 October is very possible. A 4-0 October means a 7-1 record overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten with back to back home games against division foes Michigan and Michigan State kicking things off in November.
Penn State is a big time game for Iowa because it's a big time opportunity. This is a huge crossroads game, a huge opportunity to propel this team to very good season, or a chance at one.
If they lose, it doesn't signal the end of that opportunity, but it will feel like an opportunity lost.
Of course, if Iowa is playing at Nebraska for a chance to go to the Big Ten title game, that game would be bigger than this one, so I get that. However, I feel this is a must-win game for Iowa if they want to get to that position.
Coaches dismiss talk like this and will say the next game on the schedule is the most important. I realize if you keep winning the next one, things take care of themselves.
Yet this game seems like an incredible harbinger to me. Here are some reasons why I feel that way..
CLARIFYING OFFENSIVE IDENTITY: This season has been fascinating to me, and continues to be that way. Before the year, Kirk Ferentz said September was going to be such a critical month for this team, which was clearly going to be in a developmental stage this year replacing so many key parts. Most Ferentz teams are developmental teams; squads that are typically much different in October and November than they were in September.
To me, this year may be the total embodiment of that developmental program motif.
We all felt the offense would have to carry the team in September while the defense figured out who and what it was. That proved to be true, yet I didn't expect to see the offense introduce a new Ferentz-era wrinkle and do it so well, in the form of the no-huddle.
Don't get me wrong; I am not trying to blow this wrinkle out of proportion. It's not like Iowa is reinventing the game of football here, but they are reinventing themselves to some degree. Iowa is using more 311 looks this year than in the past; three receivers, one tight end and one running back. They are flexing the tight end to the slot out of that personnel group, with KMM in the opposite slot and the running back next to the quarterback in shotgun. There have been times they have sent the running back out into a passing flank out of motion, or even pre-snap.
Iowa has run some of those formations in the past, but never so early in a game and as often as they have. So while the defense has been searching for its identity, the offense has undergone an extreme makeover. At least, it's extreme for a Kirk Ferentz coached Iowa team.
Ferentz has said this week that this year's team may wind up passing the ball more than it runs it, but that it will still run the football. Ferentz has also joked through the years that Iowa is a blitz magnet.
The reason Iowa has been a blitz magnet seem fairly obvious; when you line up in I-formations and intend to run the ball, you invite a lot of defenders in the box and opposing defensive coordinators are more easily able to commit assets to the blitz because Iowa has not made them pay through the air for such aggressiveness.
This year, teams are going to have to rethink that strategy and they won't be able to send as many assets to rush the passer out of the more 'spread-like' formations.
But Iowa doesn't have to become a pass heavy team out of these formations. When you 'spread' out the defense, you force the linebackers to take a few more steps to the outside. That's when you can hand the ball off to Coker or whomever is in the backfield and run the ball against a much less congested box. I think Iowa will attack this aspect during the Big Ten season, and once they do that, teams are going to have to make a choice.
That choice will not be an easy one, because of the dangerous options Iowa has at receiver this year. This offensive line is going to get much better, of that I have no doubt. Spread formations will make their job easier, as they won't have as many blitzers to pick up. This offense could become very, very balanced out of these more 'wide open' formations. They don't have to become a pass heavy team, as this is not a 2004 situation. I cannot wait to see what the coaches have in store for the Big Ten season and the prospects of exciting offensive production is the reason why.
Penn State's defense is going to be the biggest test Iowa will have faced to date and one of the three biggest tests they will face all year.
CLARIFYING DEFENSIVE IDENTITY: This defense is much closer to its peak than the offense is and the offense has a much higher peak than the defense. Right now, it looks like this Iowa defense is going to have to take more chances than it has in the past in order to get pressure on the quarterback. It may have to commit those same resources to slow down an opponents running game.
Penn State is going to be one of the few teams Iowa faces this year that will play more 'traditional' football on offense. There will be more hat on hat blocking in this game, more power football than Iowa has seen in its first four games combined. Iowa will see this again against Michigan State and somewhat against Nebraska, but that's it. Northwestern runs a spread, Indiana and Minnesota cannot play power football, Michigan is trending that way but still has spread elements and Purdue is in a big transition.
The Nittany Lions are going to probe the Iowa defensive line with Silas Redd. I think they will run right at Iowa and see how the Hawkeyes choose to defend the run. Iowa will likely start the game in their traditional 4-3, and I expect Penn State to have success moving the ball early. It will be interesting to see how long Iowa chooses to sit in it's base defense before it brings some heat, either in the form of blitzes to support the run or put pressure on the passers.
Penn State has the most turnovers of any team in the Big Ten thus far this year. They had two redzone turnovers last week against Indiana. This is not a great offense, but it's not a great Iowa defense.
How quickly and often Iowa chooses to get aggressive on defense may prove to be a harbinger for the rest of the year. The bye week could not have come at a better time for both sides of the ball, but especially for Norm Parker. I really think the staff has a plan in place, put in place last week, for how to navigate the rest of the season with regards to the identity of this defense.
IMPACT OF YOUTH: Iowa has played 10 true freshmen this year, with nine of them still in the mix (McCall is out with an ankle injury). Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock are certainly in the spotlight, as they are running backs and will have the ball in their hands.
How will Iowa use them over the last eight games?
Canzeri is not going to be a big time pass blocker; he's too small this year and who knows how good (or big) he will get in this area over his career. Hoping for him to become 'adequate' is probably the best to expect. That can present a problem as defenses may be able to notice tendencies when he is in the game, as in 'Iowa is not likely going to pass' when Canzeri is in the game...or at least, the passing plays Iowa may run when Canzeri is in the game may be more of the quick hit variety. Perhaps I am looking too far down the rabbit hole.
Bullock picked up two pass rushers against ULM, if you want to call it that. He did take them on, he took them on high, and he was planted on his backside both times. But hey, if the rusher doesn't sack the quarterback, or get too much pressure to where it altars the quarterback's delivery, it's a win. He is bigger than Canzeri and also has change of pace speed as a ball carrier and will be an asset in passing routes out of the backfield, but his future is likely moving back to the slot, where he began the year.
McCall and Coker will most likely handle the running load next year and with Marvin McNutt moving on to the NFL in 2011, you will see KMM move out wide, leaving a slot opportunity for Bullock and others. But for this year, Bullock is staying in the backfield.
I am very excited to see how Iowa uses these two backs between the 20's; Canzeri is certainly going to see time when the ball is in this area of the field, as he is not someone you are going to send into the line of scrimmage down in the redzone where there is less room to run.
All of these things, and more, will be on display for all to see this weekend against Penn State. I think Iowa loads a game plan that includes the kitchen sink. You win this game, it means you are one-up on the road against every division rival but Michigan State, who won a road game last week. For Iowa, that' a pretty important road win as two of their final three road games are against Minnesota and Purdue, two of the three worst teams in the Big Ten.
The other 'worst team' is Indiana, and you have them at home. It's at Penn State, home against Northwestern and Indiana then at Minnesota. Beat Penn State, and a 4-0 October is very possible. A 4-0 October means a 7-1 record overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten with back to back home games against division foes Michigan and Michigan State kicking things off in November.
Penn State is a big time game for Iowa because it's a big time opportunity. This is a huge crossroads game, a huge opportunity to propel this team to very good season, or a chance at one.
If they lose, it doesn't signal the end of that opportunity, but it will feel like an opportunity lost.
