Is Iowa More Good or More Lucky?

MelroseHawkins

MelroseHawkins

Well-Known Member
It's a good run, but at times I try to protect myself from getting too jacked up because it can be a hard fall. I'm enjoying it, but I also acknowledge that Iowa is a long FG from going into OT which could have been a loss and 1 yrd away from being 3-2. A part of me is confident, but another part thinks Iowa could go on a bad run as well & all might be for not. Anybody still have some trepidation or a false sense of security at this point or all you all in now again!?
 
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Based on recent history, a good start is not the greatest predicter of how Iowa will finish.

2010
6-1 start
8-5 final

2011
5-2 start
7-6 final


2012
4-2 start
4-8 final

2013
4-2 start
8-5 final

2014
6-2 start
7-6 final

2015
5-0 start
 
guffus said:
Based on recent history, a good start is not the greatest predicter of how Iowa will finish.

2010
6-1 start
8-5 final

2011
5-2 start
7-6 final


2012
4-2 start
4-8 final

2013
4-2 start
8-5 final

2014
6-2 start
7-6 final

2015
5-0 start
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***any reason you left off 2009? (also 5-0) and ended the season 11-2 and an Orange Bowl beatdown.
 
MiniMoeHawk said:
***any reason you left off 2009? (also 5-0) and ended the season 11-2 and an Orange Bowl beatdown.
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feel free to go back further if you want. my main point was that its hard to predict how Iowa will finish based on it record after 5 games.
 
So if this is about the first 5 games, why are you looking at the first 6-8 games? The season's half over by then.

Try this:
Year Start Finish
2009: 5-0 11-2
2010: 4-1 8-5
2011: 3-2 7-6
2012 3-2 4-8
2013 4-1 8-5
2014 4-1 7-6

The data is pretty clear here. The worst two 5 game starts led to the worst two final records (a tie for one of them) and the best 4 starts led to the 4 best finishes, with 5-0 leading to the best finish of all. Not a 1 for 1 relationship, but i'd wager that it's close to statistically significant.
 
This is an easy one. Good. In none of the games this year, did I feel that Iowa was lucky to win, or in other words, they should have lost, but for an unforeseen break. In each of the games, they were quite simply the better team. In some sense, I could argue that ISU, Pitt and Wisconsin were lucky to be as close as they were to Iowa. Now, does this mean that Iowa will not need some good fortune during the last 7 games to have more success, or not continue to improve? Of course, they will need some "luck" and must continue to get better to maintain their success (every successful team must have both), but to date, they've been the better team on the field.
 
HawkInATX said:
So if this is about the first 5 games, why are you looking at the first 6-8 games? The season's half over by then.

Try this:
Year Start Finish
2009: 5-0 11-2
2010: 4-1 8-5
2011: 3-2 7-6
2012 3-2 4-8
2013 4-1 8-5
2014 4-1 7-6

The data is pretty clear here. The worst two 5 game starts led to the worst two final records (a tie for one of them) and the best 4 starts led to the 4 best finishes, with 5-0 leading to the best finish of all. Not a 1 for 1 relationship, but i'd wager that it's close to statistically significant.
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fair enough. I concede.
 
I say Iowa is more good than lucky. I still think Pitt and Wisky were very tough opponents and getting those two wins show the hawks are playing well. I think Tevaun Smith being out is a bad break for last week and a few games as he was usually able to get open for a simple 5 yards when needed.

The hawks have definitely gotten some breaks like Coble's fumble bouncing right into Vandy's hands for a TD and the fumble by Wisky at the one. But the fumble by Wisky last week at the one was somewhat set up by the great gang tackling on the previous play. So the hawks are making their own good fortune.

Iowa was good and lucky in 2009.
 
MelroseHawkins said:
It's a good run, but at times I try to protect myself from getting too jacked up because it can be a hard fall. I'm enjoying it, but I also acknowledge that Iowa is a long FG from going into OT which could have been a loss and 1 yrd away from being 3-2. A part of me is confident, but another part thinks Iowa could go on a bad run as well & all might be for not. Anybody still have some trepidation or a false sense of security at this point or all you all in now again!?
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Lucky? How?
 
uihawk82 said:
... So the hawks are making their own good fortune.

Iowa was good and lucky in 2009.
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This team makes things happen on both sides of the ball. The HKC to MV fumblerooskie shows the kind of situational awareness that wins games. To know what is going on and where the ball is located is fundamental. To execute on that knowledge is huge.

Hard nosed defensive play is causing turnovers and the Hawkeyes are capitalizing on them. This is a sign of a good team IMHO. All of the points @ Camp Randall came off of turnovers. FE seeing the fumble and falling on the ball was more than pure luck. Good SA and good execution.

This team is good that's for sure. I'm just not sure what adjective goes in front of "good" yet.
 
A bit of both I would suspect. Tough call on knowing which for sure weighs more, but we will know more in short time.
 
We're better, on the fringe of good. We've had some good fortune, although i would argue every successful season, for almost every team requires at least some good fortune.

They've also created some of the luck, with what appears to be more intensity, comradery, confidence.

Execution has improved as well, that helps.
 
I'm just enjoying the ride the Hawks have got us on. I never expected us to be where we are this season. I expected the Vols to have a good season. But they have been blowing leads and just playing awful football in the 2nd half of there games. It makes it that much sweeter to see the Hawks off to a good start. I went to my first Iowa game this season when we played North Texas, and I really enjoyed Kinnick Stadium on a college football Saturday. From watching them play this season, I'll admit there has been a little luck go our way, but even with luck we wouldn't have won if our Hawks wasn't playing good FB to keep us in the game. GO HAWKS!
 
The eyeball test says we are playing much better than in recent years.. We are creating our breaks and taking advantage of situations where the ball bounces our way...as said above, team confidence, cohesiveness, chemestry, and comradery are all more noticeable with each passing game. We aren't just getting out with a W, although we in fact are, but we are not the clearly lesser team (as it appeared in recent years)...We are certainly more exciting to watch as well as to get ready to watch....but there are still areas we need to improve on.

Only time will tell, and we need to continue to have players step up ech week and take charge and lead, also obviously keep key injuries to a minimum...we have been here before only to have the doors blown out...this team looks like they are better good than just plain lucky (although all good teams get lucky by creating their luck, or being in the right spot to take advantage of their luck)...but I'm still cautiously optimistic... Plenty more football to be played.
 
If you aren't good, you aren't in a position to get a lucky break to win the game vs a quality opponent.

Winning a game on PURE LUCK is when ISU is the recipient of 7 or 8 Nebraska fumbles in a game.
 
Iowa good? So far, MOSTLY good! Great? No way!
Overall, fans are very happy with 5-0. We could easily be 3-2 with some bad breaks. This team is showing signs of improvement, but so far, I see no signs of greatness. The good news, IMHO, is that they are showing TEAM togetherness, willingness to work hard, and an attitude of no quitting. The team leaders are leading by example. Good examples!

With some luck ( yes, always can argue lucky or not )Iowa could finish strong. Throw OSU,MSU, PSU, and MI. in the schedule, and ? who knows?

Last year, the Badgers played OSU. 59-0 final. Iowa played TENNESSEE, hate to even think about that display. This year? So far - good. Hope are players get healthy and stay healthy, especially, CJ, JC, and D.King. Go Hawks!! First tho, Illini.
 
Floridahawkeye1 said:
Iowa good? So far, MOSTLY good! Great? No way!
Overall, fans are very happy with 5-0. We could easily be 3-2 with some bad breaks. This team is showing signs of improvement, but so far, I see no signs of greatness. The good news, IMHO, is that they are showing TEAM togetherness, willingness to work hard, and an attitude of no quitting. The team leaders are leading by example. Good examples!

With some luck ( yes, always can argue lucky or not )Iowa could finish strong. Throw OSU,MSU, PSU, and MI. in the schedule, and ? who knows?

Last year, the Badgers played OSU. 59-0 final. Iowa played TENNESSEE, hate to even think about that display. This year? So far - good. Hope are players get healthy and stay healthy, especially, CJ, JC, and D.King. Go Hawks!! First tho, Illini.
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I'd love to see this years team play Tenn again, we would kick their azz, they are a mess.
 
"That's football" Those trends can mean everything or nothing at the end of the day.. It's a week to week play to play deal. I'm fired up and would rather be this way and enjoy the ride wherever it goes than miss out on any of it because I'm waiting for the Lucy to pull the football just so I can say " I saw it coming" Naw lets enjoy it and not look at it like most of the Cubs fans I know in the playoffs are.
To even get the chance to be lucky they had to be good enough to be in the situation...
 
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Good and lucky. Not great, especially without Tevaun Smith. Illinois will be a another tough test....they are loose and confident after defeating Nebraska. I'm hoping for 9-3 or 10-2 and a good bowl game. I'm not thinking beyond that
 
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