Iowa's Regular Season Record

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bhawk326

Well-Known Member
I did this last year and got a positive response, so I thought I would do it again this year. Assigning win percentages to the remaining games on Iowa's schedule can give an idea of what kind of expected record Iowa can have at the end of the regular season:

My assigned Iowa win percentages are as follows:

MICH - 60%; WISC - 75%; MSU - 65%; IND - 85%; NW - 75%; OSU - 50%; MINN - 90%

These give Iowa the following percentages for regular season records:

11-1: 8.4%
10-2: 26.5%
9-3: 33.5%
8-4: 21.9%
7-5: 8.0%
6-6: 1.6%
5-7: 0.2%
4-8: 0.0%

This resulted in an average of 9.0 wins. I'm a bit more optimistic and think Iowa will probably finish 10-2. Last year my prediction after 3 games was an average of 9.8 wins so pretty close. What do people think?
 
Interesting. How did you assign wins? Was it scientific or off the top of your head? My only comment would be to adjust the win percentage for Michigan and Michigan State after this weekend. We'll know a lot more after Saturday.
 
Hwkwyld, simple combination math. After assigning the win percentage for each game, you just summate the likelihood that any event will occur (ex: Iowa loses 1 game the rest of the season). I did it as a tree (calculate the chance for each record after each event; ex: Iowa has a 60% chance of being 5-1 and a 40% chance of being 4-2 after the game against Michigan) since it makes the excel spreadsheet easier to put together. Also, it makes it really easy to adjust percentages after each week. I agree with you that the percentages for especially Michigan and Michigan State may swing depending on this week's results.
 
Meh. I was coming into the season predicting anywhere from a 9-3 to a 11-1 season. 9-3 or 10-2 are still where I feel we'll end up if we play about as well as expected. 11-1 is possible, but improbable. We'll drop at least one more game before the end of the season is up.
 
bhawk326 said:
I did this last year and got a positive response, so I thought I would do it again this year. Assigning win percentages to the remaining games on Iowa's schedule can give an idea of what kind of expected record Iowa can have at the end of the regular season:

My assigned Iowa win percentages are as follows:

MICH - 60%; WISC - 75%; MSU - 65%; IND - 85%; NW - 75%; OSU - 50%; MINN - 90%

These give Iowa the following percentages for regular season records:

11-1: 8.4%
10-2: 26.5%
9-3: 33.5%
8-4: 21.9%
7-5: 8.0%
6-6: 1.6%
5-7: 0.2%
4-8: 0.0%

This resulted in an average of 9.0 wins. I'm a bit more optimistic and think Iowa will probably finish 10-2. Last year my prediction after 3 games was an average of 9.8 wins so pretty close. What do people think?
Click to expand...

Fairly close to my thoughts. Changes I would make

Higher percentage on Minnesota, Indiana, and Michigan.
Lower percentage on Northwestern (until we prove we can beat them)
The other 3 seem about right
 
hawkinaclonehouse, what percentages were you thinking? I'll plug them in and give you an update on the percentages.
 
I would like to see what the percentages are with the 12 game schedule assigning a win probability to the previous five teams we played had the season not yet started. My guess is the 8-4 and better record probablities would be lower than what they are today with the 7 remaining games.

Also, I think winning the Northwestern game is less than 75%. It is in Evanston and Iowa has had a lot of trouble with the Wildcats in recent years. I would put it closer to 55%. I think winning at Michigan is closer to 70%. Their defense is terrible and Iowa's defense is outstanding. I cannot see Robinson running wild against the Hawks with two weeks to prepare for them.
 
@ Michigan 60%
Wisconsin 80%
Michigan St 80%
@ Indiana 80%
@ Northwestern 80%
Ohio State 60%
@ Minnesota 100%

gives at 15% chance of 11-1
 
Last edited:
jameskalina, my original percentages would be as possible:

EIU - 100%; ISU - 80%; AZ - 60%; Ball St - 100%; PSU - 80%; Mich - 75%;
Wisc - 65%; MSU - 75%; Ind - 90%; NW - 75%; OSU - 60%; Minn - 90%

* I would have had the Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana and OSU percentages higher at the beginning of the season and Wisconsin a bit lower at the beginning of the season.

This would give:

12-0: 5.1%
11-1: 18.4%
10-2: 28.8%
9-3: 25.8%
8-4: 14.7%
7-5: 5.5%
6-6: 1.4%
5-7: 0.2%
4-8: 0.0%
3-9: 0.0%
2-10: 0.0%
1-11: 0.0%
0-12: 0.0%

This would give an average of 9.5 overall wins with 6.1 Big Ten wins.
 
jameskalina, your changes give almost identical win percentages as I have. Yours percentages give 8.9 total wins instead of the 9.0 I had.
 
bwsmoney, your percentages give:

11-1: 14.7%
10-2: 34.4%
9-3: 31.7%
8-4: 14.8%
7-5: 3.7%
6-6: 0.5%
5-7: 0.0%
4-8: 0.0%

That would give an average total wins of 9.4 for the season.
 
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