Iowa's realistic next coach

[99topdawg]

Devries just got signed to a 15 million dollar 5 year deal. Meaning he makes approx 3 million a year - (Fran currently at 3.3 after 15 years at Iowa fwiw)

So, after this season, you can knock 3 k off that - so 12 million - his buyout to WVU would be 37.5% of his remaining salary through the end of the deal.

So Iowa would need to buy out Fran (around 6.5 from what I've seen) and buy out about 5 million of Devries salary to WV just to get him.

I just see that as such a long shot for a school that clearly doesn't care.

I think I saw that DeVries also gets a 1 year extension if he finishes in the top 6 in the conference.

 

[InGoodCo]

This list is obviously not hard numbers, but do we really think Iowa is in a place where they're willing to put even one guy on this top 100 list? Every top 25 team in the AP is represented on the list and most of them have multiple players on it.

nebraska is on it.

Penn State is on it.

Rutgers is on it.

Iowa State has multiple players on it.

That's what I am saying, I don't think Iowa wants to compete that badly, or at least don't seem committed to that so far. So, imo, I say tamp down those expectations for a coach because they aren't getting many worth a shit without having $$$ to be on that list. We will need to get a up and comer, someone coming off a rebound, or a assistant that;s hungry for a shot at the HC job in The B1G

 

[PCHawk]

That's the thing Iowa's offensive numbers have been solid (till recently) really solid actually. So much so that they would be winning a whole lot of games for most programs. Problem is coaches don't know how to coach Defense or emphasize it enough. Along with and this is the important part, most of the players aren't even physically capable of playing good defense. When Harding and the two Sandforts are out there at the same time it's an absolute turnstile for the other team. We can't keep teams from getting whatever it is they want to do. We either have to double team guys or foul.

Freeman when he's going against another good post player and they go to him early and often Freeman is almost always going to get a 2nd early foul. He can't hardly defend without fouling inside against good players. Harding is a quicker version of JBo that's easy for teams with good pgs to pick on. Pick and roll or posting him up he's always gonna struggle more times then not. Both Sandforts just aren't athletic enough to be good defenders. In fairness to Payton he's been guarding a lot of 4s this yr and he's never been big enough to do that. Regardless he can't guard players he should match up against better either.

Dix is ok on D but he's not great either and Thelwell has been pretty dang good most of the time. He plays really hard too gotta give him that. But that's about it for who all plays a lot and together as a unit they can't prevent teams from anything. Pick and rolls, dribble drives, post ups, You name it we can't disrupt teams with our pressing occasionally or zones we throw out there. They are what they are as they say.

I've seen too many years of good Wisconsin defense to believe Iowa doesn't have the athletes to play it. They're lazy and exert all of their energy on offense.

 

[99topdawg]

The issue of actually being able to get players here is a bigger obstacle than buyouts. Like I said, no matter the coach, you have to be able to pay players well and if you find a performer better than what Iowa currently has (if you don't you're going to be in the same situation you are now) you're going to need to be able to match market price to keep him here. Iowa hasn't shown they're willing or able to do that in the basketball program like they do with football. That's why you have all these coaches getting fed up and retiring...their coaching skill isn't the most important piece of the pie anymore...it's the size of the collective. Don't take my word for it, there are lots of people a whole lot more knowledgeable than anyone on this board saying the same thing. Coaches are saying the same thing.

You could have the hottest coach around and a brand new arena full of fans but if you can write the necessary checks, you're cooked.

I would have to think there will be some sort of agreement where this is going to happen before any legitimate coach would some here. Something more concrete than just an "I promise we'll do better". If Iowa's not willing to do that, we'll be in a cycle of hiring low to mid major coaches and either firing them, them moving on, or being just good enough to not get fired.

My question to you. Other than what I bolded above, how does what you said not apply to ISU? Is the difference in the bolded enough? I really don't know anything about their collective, etc other than they sell crappy beer. I always think, if they can do it, so can Iowa.

History has shown that there is a difference, but what is it? It's not like it's a fluke coach they got in there. They've had Floyd, Eustachy, Hoiberg, and Otzelberger win big. Fran and Alford each won 59% of their games. Of the 7 coaches since Orr, only McDermott won less than that. There's got to be something. Are we just stuck in a 20 wins a year rut with the mindset that we can't get rid of Fran because he never has a bad season? Is that costing us booster interest/money? I honestly don't know.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I've seen too many years of good Wisconsin defense to believe Iowa doesn't have the athletes to play it. They're lazy and exert all of their energy on offense.

That's a part of it for some I'm sure too. I think Caitlin Clark would fall into that category she'd be a better defender (even though she isn't great at it either) if she'd have just tried more. Guys like JBo and Harding just have physical limitations to them that can be exploited. Garza no matter how hard he tried he wasn't gonna be a great defender and nobody ever doubted his effort. The Sandforts have ceilings to their games cause they just aren't quick/fast athletic. They are walking stereo types.

 

[thedukeofearl]

I look at that as a pretty different thing... Mostly due to the whole Clark effect. I mean any team losing her would have the next yrs team in an all out rebuild mode and we aren't immune from that. That's not to mention losing Kate, Gabbie, and Mollie, Besides Stuelke the rest of the players now were all role players previously some of them just bit role players that hardly played at all as far as significant mins go. And true freshman.

Yeah they were fortunate to get Lucy to come in and she was ok early on. But now she's kinda hit a wall of some sort. As much as people woulda liked her to take the bull by the horns and be a major leader maybe that pressure has gotten to her some? Hard to say but it's fair to say she's struggled pretty bad during this losing streak they are on. I don't know what's fair to expect from her. But it's more then this.

The great thing the womens game has going for it is the fan support is there and not going anywhere. They can take the time to build it back up. Jan was there for day 1 going way back all those yrs and she deserves a fair shake to try and do it. Fran on the other hand has no fan support or foundation that gives anyone confidence that he can build it back up....

Yeah they were fortunate to get Lucy to come in and she was ok early on. But now she's kinda hit a wall of some sort. As much as people woulda liked her to take the bull by the horns and be a major leader maybe that pressure has gotten to her some? Hard to say but it's fair to say she's struggled pretty bad during this losing streak they are on. I don't know what's fair to expect from her. But it's more then this.

Wonder if Lucy's problem is a result from the forearm slam in the Tennessee game

That was a brutal hit, and her game has changed after that incident

Lucy Olsen WHACKED In The Head, Foul Reviewed | #17 Iowa Hawkeyes vs Tennessee, Women's Basketball

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Tennessee player didn't get a flagrant, merely a common foul

 

[InGoodCo]

Ya know who has a loyal and rabid fan base that has lots of NIL backing and money? West Virginia.

 

[InGoodCo]

I would have to think there will be some sort of agreement where this is going to happen before any legitimate coach would some here. Something more concrete than just an "I promise we'll do better". If Iowa's not willing to do that, we'll be in a cycle of hiring low to mid major coaches and either firing them, them moving on, or being just good enough to not get fired.

My question to you. Other than what I bolded above, how does what you said not apply to ISU? Is the difference in the bolded enough? I really don't know anything about their collective, etc other than they sell crappy beer. I always think, if they can do it, so can Iowa.

History has shown that there is a difference, but what is it? It's not like it's a fluke coach they got in there. They've had Floyd, Eustachy, Hoiberg, and Otzelberger win big. Fran and Alford each won 59% of their games. Of the 7 coaches since Orr, only McDermott won less than that. There's got to be something. Are we just stuck in a 20 wins a year rut with the mindset that we can't get rid of Fran because he never has a bad season? Is that costing us booster interest/money? I honestly don't know.

ISU has a fan base, that is in love and cares about their program. They sell out games against NJ Tech - Iowa is drawing 2500 to B1G games. That facility is loud, comfortable and easily accessible to their fan base. They have tons of effort from their administration to make their environment fun, welcoming and a great product for their fans. Iowa doesn't have any of that.

Iowa State has way more recent success. They have b1G12 tournament championships in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2024. Iowa doesn't have any of that.

Iowa State has 5 sweet 16's since 1999 - Iowa has 0.

Iowa State has more money to pay their coaches, or at least, they are willing to spend their money on coaches that Iowa doesn't seem to be. Fran is one of the most tenured coaches in the sport - he makes 3.3 million a year. TJ is on his 4th year and he's making 3.5 million. That's mostly performance based, but hey he's earned it and Iowa State again, wants to be good so they pay their guy so they can be good. Iowa doesn't, at least on paper, have any of that and if they do, they aren't prioritizing it to men's hoops.

Obviously, there are no true NIL totals, but I am willing to bet that ISU has 1 player on their team that's getting about as much as anyone on Iowa's roster. They've pulled the #1 rated kid out of HS and one of the best players out of the portal in back to back seasons under TJ, you don't do that unless you are one of the top players in the NIL game. I would say Iowa is no where near a top player even though with effort, commitment and leadership, they absolutely could be, and you have to have ALL of that AND a good coach. Iowa doesn't have any of those things, so a good coach is not likely and much more of a crap shoot.

 

[BigD]

If Iowa isn’t going to do the “pay to play” game, then they might as well shut down the basketball program and focus what little basketball funds they have toward the football program.

I know no one wants to hear that but it is what it is. Do we really want to watch 11-19 seasons year after year.

I have been calling for Fran’s head for sometime, but when college basketball became OFFICIALLY semi pro, programs like Iowa were cooked. TOAST. That’s when I changed my mind about Fran. If Iowa can’t “pay to play” they might as well keep a coach around who has shown his ability to get some players to the NBA.

That’s one asset that might occasionally bring marginally good players in who are willing to put in the work and grow in ability and show loyalty to a coach that gave them a chance.

 

[Hay Man]

Don't believe we're going to get the coach we want. Do we go after someone with Iowa ties or a former player, because like what many have said, Iowa isn't a job good coaches want right now. The next hire will have tons of pressure on them to build the program back up to the Olson through Mr. Davis days. NIL $ will be hard to get unless that coach really goes out and stumps for it.

 

[Gibsonian]

Remember the Francon eruption scale? I have it taped on the mancave fridge and it's useless now. Fran just stares ahead, seems medicated now, maybe checked out. He appears to be done with blowup. Unless Iowa athletics has checked out too I cannot see how this continues another season. Girls Bball is a whole different situation imo. Give her some time to find her footing.

 

[InGoodCo]

Don't believe we're going to get the coach we want. Do we go after someone with Iowa ties or a former player, because like what many have said, Iowa isn't a job good coaches want right now. The next hire will have tons of pressure on them to build the program back up to the Olson through Mr. Davis days. NIL $ will be hard to get unless that coach really goes out and stumps for it.

Yep, need someone who understands Iowa and this area of the country and is as much of a cheerleader for the program as a coach. Energy, young and someone who can sell hope but also understands the climate, what the size of this job will be and the work it will take to get it even back to even.

 

[Hay Man]

Remember the Francon eruption scale? I have it taped on the mancave fridge and it's useless now. Fran just stares ahead, seems medicated now, maybe checked out. He appears to be done with blowup. Unless Iowa athletics has checked out too I cannot see how this continues another season. Girls Bball is a whole different situation imo. Give her some time to find her footing.

Fran's youngest is a senior, so he's gone after the season. No reason to stick around Iowa City and he can move to Indy to be with all his boys.

 

[Gibsonian]

Yep, need someone who understands Iowa and this area of the country and is as much of a cheerleader for the program as a coach. Energy, young and someone who can sell hope but also understands the climate, what the size of this job will be and the work it will take to get it even back to even.

I think we have to gamble on a young unproven or small school standout with the properties you describe. No big name proven coaches are coming here.

 

[InGoodCo]

I think we have to gamble on a young unproven or small school standout with the properties you describe. No big name proven coaches are coming here.

So, IMO - instead of talking about Devries and Forbes and whatever big fish we think we might get, I think our focus should be on people making a jump to get into the HC slot. Like Devries is likely more in line with being the next Creighton coach and I see that happening way more likely than Iowa.

Ryan Bowen? I doubt it. I just know he's a top assistant in the NBA.
Dean Oliver? I don't even know that he's coaching right now.
Matt Gatens? Seems a little green imo
Eric Henderson? SDSU has been pretty good, he's 46, has some ties to the midwest?


I don't know, I just think Iowa's much closer to a Drake guy like Niko Medved then they are to Darian Devries. I hope and wish and want to be wrong.

 

[InGoodCo]

It's also a little scary and also, kind of telling, that we don't all have a list of names here.

 

[Hay Man]

So, IMO - instead of talking about Devries and Forbes and whatever big fish we think we might get, I think our focus should be on people making a jump to get into the HC slot. Like Devries is likely more in line with being the next Creighton coach and I see that happening way more likely than Iowa.

Ryan Bowen? I doubt it. I just know he's a top assistant in the NBA.
Dean Oliver? I don't even know that he's coaching right now.
Matt Gatens? Seems a little green imo
Eric Henderson? SDSU has been pretty good, he's 46, has some ties to the midwest?


I don't know, I just think Iowa's much closer to a Drake guy like Niko Medved then they are to Darian Devries. I hope and wish and want to be wrong.

Bowen would be great, but a long shot
Oliver is coaching AAU in Iowa somewhere
Gatens isn't ready probably
Henderson or another mid-major is the most likely answer

Maybe target an assistant at a big time school that recruits well or has connections

Drake's head coach is from Iowa and had a great amount of success before Drake, but it's his first season there.

 

[Grady]

I like Fran and I think he's the best we can do in this environment. But the unnecessary over helping on the ball just to give up wide open 3s and layups has to stop.

Yeah, like 5 years ago!
Somehow he's got Iowa's players believing that 'being connected' on defense means leaving 40% 3 pt shooters you are supposed to be defending.

 

[trj]

It's also a little scary and also, kind of telling, that we don't all have a list of names here.

Ding, ding, ding. It is really hard to come up with a list of viable candidates. People are suggesting guys like Porter Moser, and you shrug your shoulders, and realize that Goetz has to sell some shit, to get a potential rock star as the next head coach.

 

[Grady]

There's a lot of talk on this thread about how Iowa isn't willing to put up $$ to keep bball players like they have done for football players. Does anybody have proof of that or is it just conjecture? I mean, it's logical to assume that both Freeman and Dix had some well-funded bluebloods come calling in the off-season, and there were rumors of Dix to Creighton. Do we know if Iowa paid them to stay on this year? If so, how much? Players he's recruited do seem to have a strong sense of loyalty to Fran, but maybe some players on Iowa's bball team are getting more NIL $$ than people think.
And other than Perkins, I can't think of another starting bball player who's left Iowa over the past two years for greener pastures -- and he was easily replaced.