Iowa's realistic next coach

InGoodCo

InGoodCo

Well-Known Member
I think it's probable that Iowa will have a new men's basketball coach heading into next season. Fran's buy out in today's world is pretty much nothing and while he hasn't bottomed out the program, he's teetering on taking it to where it hasn't been in quite some time.

So, who do we get? Who can we get? I am not sure Devries doesn't already have a way better situation at WV - but I think you make him tell you no. I just don't see it with the current commitment the UofI places on it's Men's basketball program

Steve Forbes? He was a hot name for a long while and has ties to the program?

Iowa needs someone to come in a rejuvenate a stale and failing program with no NIL, poor facilities and a school that has no commitment to winning. It's hard to be optimistic but with a new coach, there is at least hope.
 
Iowa is short 2 to 3 big men this season that most Iowa teams have had in the past - that's on Fran. Iowa getting their doors blown off regularly, that's on Fran. I don't really care how the rest of the season plays out, it's clear as day that Fran should be out to me, who has been a long time and staunch supporter of his. It's time, everyone knows it, I don't see any scenario in which he returns unless some sort of miracle turn around that just isn't going to happen with the make up of this team.
 
Part of me thinks it isn't going to matter who the coach is. Right now until athletes get under contract and there are caps (not going to happen anytime soon), you need to have big NIL money or you're screwed. Mike Krzewyrsizrewcszki couldn't do much with this team.

Until that happens, someone behind the scenes navigating the portal transfer market and making deals is more important than the coach all things equal. Recruiting and development take a back seat to that if you want to be in the top third of a P6 conference. Every team is going to be reshuffled each year and it's more about putting together a new squad as best you can every April.

You're going to have 2 kinds of coaches moving forward...the ones who are approaching medicare age, don't want to put up with the new bullshit and are either checked out or just retiring because of it (Fran likely fits both of these imo)...and the ones who know they have to hit free agency with a full head of steam every summer to put a new team together. Where before the best recruiting coaches who could spot high schoolers put the best teams together, now you have to be a businessman first. To do that they have to have a bunch of money and something to sell to those free agents such as facilities, perqs, and national exposure. Iowa doesn't really have any of that, so if there is a coaching change I don't think it's going to matter much who it is. I don't think all of a sudden Iowa is going to commit to a new or updated arena and allocate a bunch of money for players out of nowhere. We're just not a basketball school.

I do think that Fran has pretty much checked out. I know some people here have said it's not true, but let's be honest...there isn't much of the old Fran "fire" anymore. You can see it on the sideline and you can see it in the pressers. I don't blame him a bit; I mean, what is he supposed to do? Development or no development, every player has a talent ceiling and these guys Iowa has now are probably right at it. I'm confident enough in Fran's evaluation of talent to know that he can see the next iteration of Garza/Murray/Jok/Wieskamp/Marble/White/Uthoff but there's no way he's going to get them to come here, and even if he did they wouldn't stay. He knows that, and at that point where do you get your motivation from? If any of those guys were playing in 2025 they'd have fat bags of money from a blue blood waiting for them come summer. To be honest I'd be checked out too. It definitely takes a different breed of cat to coach in 2025
 
It'll be a fascinating coaching search (It seems like a forgone conclusion that this yr is indeed it for Fran) My guess is Fran will make Beth fire him and not walk away like Alford did cause why would he? Nobody is leaving 6 milly on the table.

I don't think Beth will let Fran go before the yr is up if she wants to surprise me she could do that and name one of the assistants the interim. Which wouldn't be a bad way to go. If the decision has pretty much been made then I'd be for that. I just don't think she will. It'd give a head start for doing the coaching search if nothing else. As far as I'm concerned this yr is toast there's no realistic hopes of making the dance or doing any damage in it if they did magically sneak in so besides trying to keep the players together/recruits what'd be the point of dragging it out? Any new staff would be blowing up the roster anyway pretty much. So I guess we'll see...
 
We already have a good example of what can happen when a long tenure coach is replaced. Ladies basketball. Maybe thats a learning curve situation (although given Jan’s experience it shouldn’t be….). Is this my way of saying that losing Fran would totally tank the program? Maybe…..except based on crowd and campus support, apathy is well entrenched already. Perhaps the MBB program needs to be blown up to start over. Hate to say it, but I think as it currently is, only something drastic will fix it, but there is a good chance we will be second division for many years.
 
Fryowa said:
Part of me thinks it isn't going to matter who the coach is. Right now until athletes get under contract and there are caps (not going to happen anytime soon), you need to have big NIL money or you're screwed. Mike Krzewyrsizrewcszki couldn't do much with this team.

Until that happens, someone behind the scenes navigating the portal transfer market and making deals is more important than the coach all things equal. Recruiting and development take a back seat to that if you want to be in the top third of a P6 conference. Every team is going to be reshuffled each year and it's more about putting together a new squad as best you can every April.

You're going to have 2 kinds of coaches moving forward...the ones who are approaching medicare age, don't want to put up with the new bullshit and are either checked out or just retiring because of it (Fran likely fits both of these imo)...and the ones who know they have to hit free agency with a full head of steam every summer to put a new team together. Where before the best recruiting coaches who could spot high schoolers put the best teams together, now you have to be a businessman first. To do that they have to have a bunch of money and something to sell to those free agents such as facilities, perqs, and national exposure. Iowa doesn't really have any of that, so if there is a coaching change I don't think it's going to matter much who it is. I don't think all of a sudden Iowa is going to commit to a new or updated arena and allocate a bunch of money for players out of nowhere. We're just not a basketball school.

I do think that Fran has pretty much checked out. I know some people here have said it's not true, but let's be honest...there isn't much of the old Fran "fire" anymore. You can see it on the sideline and you can see it in the pressers. I don't blame him a bit; I mean, what is he supposed to do? Development or no development, every player has a talent ceiling and these guys Iowa has now are probably right at it. I'm confident enough in Fran's evaluation of talent to know that he can see the next iteration of Garza/Murray/Jok/Wieskamp/Marble/White/Uthoff but there's no way he's going to get them to come here, and even if he did they wouldn't stay. He knows that, and at that point where do you get your motivation from? If any of those guys were playing in 2025 they'd have fat bags of money from a blue blood waiting for them come summer. To be honest I'd be checked out too. It definitely takes a different breed of cat to coach in 2025
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100% That's his largest issue. The hoops landscape changed pretty quickly and he can't get a kid or 2 like that to come (he's never really landed the stud PG he'd have liked) and even if he did for a yr or two they'd be long off and gone to somewhere else by the time their potential was being realized. Hell he was pretty fortunate that Garza and the Murrays stuck around as long as they all did.

When you look at the state of the program in totality with Fran and how he is as a coach/recruiter and what's realistic for him to do there's just no turning things around from this point. Most of those studs you mentioned that came weren't all studs yr 1 & 2 when they first came to Iowa. Fran had time to develop them all and it was yrs 3 & 4 that they turned into the studs they did. And that just doesn't happen much anymore...
 
Dadman said:
We already have a good example of what can happen when a long tenure coach is replaced. Ladies basketball. Maybe thats a learning curve situation (although given Jan’s experience it shouldn’t be….). Is this my way of saying that losing Fran would totally tank the program? Maybe…..except based on crowd and campus support, apathy is well entrenched already. Perhaps the MBB program needs to be blown up to start over. Hate to say it, but I think as it currently is, only something drastic will fix it, but there is a good chance we will be second division for many years.
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I look at that as a pretty different thing... Mostly due to the whole Clark effect. I mean any team losing her would have the next yrs team in an all out rebuild mode and we aren't immune from that. That's not to mention losing Kate, Gabbie, and Mollie, Besides Stuelke the rest of the players now were all role players previously some of them just bit role players that hardly played at all as far as significant mins go. And true freshman.

Yeah they were fortunate to get Lucy to come in and she was ok early on. But now she's kinda hit a wall of some sort. As much as people woulda liked her to take the bull by the horns and be a major leader maybe that pressure has gotten to her some? Hard to say but it's fair to say she's struggled pretty bad during this losing streak they are on. I don't know what's fair to expect from her. But it's more then this.

The great thing the womens game has going for it is the fan support is there and not going anywhere. They can take the time to build it back up. Jan was there for day 1 going way back all those yrs and she deserves a fair shake to try and do it. Fran on the other hand has no fan support or foundation that gives anyone confidence that he can build it back up....
 
The odd thing about this BTen season -- remember everybody felt pretty good about the non-con preseason and how the team was playing -- is there is plentiful talent on this team. Not according to me, but according to people who rate comparable talent in the BTen. Freeman was BTen Fr of the year last year. Sandfort was picked 1st Team BTen preseason. Every top-tier BTen team would love to have Dix, a special talent. Thelwell could start for many BTen teams. So, why not better results?
Depth and defense -- and those shortcomings are on Fran.
He's had the opportunity during his tenure at Iowa to bring in defensive specialist coaches. He repeatedly refused to do so. Neither Freeman nor Sandfort can play defense, and Harding is also a defensive liability. Pryce Sandfort is the 6th man, and he's the worst defender on the team.
As far as depth: Dembele is still developing, Traore's injury really slowed him down, and Pryce has been a disappointment because he can't stay in front of anybody.
Given the bball situation at Iowa, it's amazing the recruiting job Fran has done over the years. His ability to spot and develop offensive talent is elite. The roster he kept together for this year's run felt special. But alas, defensive energy is a lot more reliable than shots falling on any given night...and therein lies Iowa's inconsistency.
 
For whatever reason this team is lazy until it gets into a hole. Maybe they are just relying on the other team getting lazy after they get a big lead? I'm not sure. But until the last few games it sure looked to me like the former. Terrible shooting nights happen. And when they do, you mostly lose the game. But the issue is effort on defense and effort rebounding. Just watch how players don't even react to a long rebound. They miss so many 50/50 balls by not even trying. But then they dig their hole and play on fire for a 10 minute stretch. I get that legs won't last an entire game playing THAT hard. But try playing the entire game at 90% instead of 70% of the game at 10% and the last 30% at 100%. It's maddening.
 
I like Fran and I think he's the best we can do in this environment. But the unnecessary over helping on the ball just to give up wide open 3s and layups has to stop.
 
Grady said:
The odd thing about this BTen season -- remember everybody felt pretty good about the non-con preseason and how the team was playing -- is there is plentiful talent on this team. Not according to me, but according to people who rate comparable talent in the BTen. Freeman was BTen Fr of the year last year. Sandfort was picked 1st Team BTen preseason. Every top-tier BTen team would love to have Dix, a special talent. Thelwell could start for many BTen teams. So, why not better results?
Depth and defense -- and those shortcomings are on Fran.
He's had the opportunity during his tenure at Iowa to bring in defensive specialist coaches. He repeatedly refused to do so. Neither Freeman nor Sandfort can play defense, and Harding is also a defensive liability. Pryce Sandfort is the 6th man, and he's the worst defender on the team.
As far as depth: Dembele is still developing, Traore's injury really slowed him down, and Pryce has been a disappointment because he can't stay in front of anybody.
Given the bball situation at Iowa, it's amazing the recruiting job Fran has done over the years. His ability to spot and develop offensive talent is elite. The roster he kept together for this year's run felt special. But alas, defensive energy is a lot more reliable than shots falling on any given night...and therein lies Iowa's inconsistency.
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That's the thing Iowa's offensive numbers have been solid (till recently) really solid actually. So much so that they would be winning a whole lot of games for most programs. Problem is coaches don't know how to coach Defense or emphasize it enough. Along with and this is the important part, most of the players aren't even physically capable of playing good defense. When Harding and the two Sandforts are out there at the same time it's an absolute turnstile for the other team. We can't keep teams from getting whatever it is they want to do. We either have to double team guys or foul.

Freeman when he's going against another good post player and they go to him early and often Freeman is almost always going to get a 2nd early foul. He can't hardly defend without fouling inside against good players. Harding is a quicker version of JBo that's easy for teams with good pgs to pick on. Pick and roll or posting him up he's always gonna struggle more times then not. Both Sandforts just aren't athletic enough to be good defenders. In fairness to Payton he's been guarding a lot of 4s this yr and he's never been big enough to do that. Regardless he can't guard players he should match up against better either.

Dix is ok on D but he's not great either and Thelwell has been pretty dang good most of the time. He plays really hard too gotta give him that. But that's about it for who all plays a lot and together as a unit they can't prevent teams from anything. Pick and rolls, dribble drives, post ups, You name it we can't disrupt teams with our pressing occasionally or zones we throw out there. They are what they are as they say.
 
I don't want Fran fired in season and I think he's been an outstanding coach for Iowa. After last season and now half of this one, I am ready for a new start as a fan. While this might validate some people's belief on Fran, I haven't thought that Fran needed to be gone up until recently. Coming into this year, I was still in belief that Fran was the best man to keep us in position to be successful. But man, those Murray brothers, Luka and Weisy seem like way distant memories now. I feel like Devries would be a home run hire and I don't know that Iowa is in position for one of those, so my sights are aimed dramatically lower. Our AD is going to have to sell the shit out of this opportunity and even with that we are still facing an uphill battle.

For years I've said that Fran is better than Iowa, and, in my mind, most of his coaching career has been. This is not. This is embarrassing. This is not being competitive. This is losing by 30+ on the road and getting down 16 points every game before you get the other team to take their foot off the gas and hope to light them up down the stretch. That's not a winning recipe for any Iowa basketball team I've known. Right now, we have no identity, nothing to hang out hats on, and really can't point towards any hope that things are going to change.

Iowa will need to completely reinvent itself as a program - the roster needs and will be blown up. Commits will go elsewhere and some good pieces probably leave. That's how it works. I am ready for it. It might be way worse but I feel like Fran doesn't have an answer here and while we don't need A+ coaching at Iowa, we need coaches who have the answer. Fran doesn't appear to have that this season and 2 years of not making the dance doesn't cut it at Iowa.
 
Frans wants to score 90, We will win most games. Get the ball up the
court in less than 2 seconds, open 3 or layup, get the other team in foul trouble. Shoot 20 plus free throws and win. Solid teams play physical D get back on D. Iowa in the half court is not good.
 
Well you know, Beth and Brad Stevens are really close....

Darian DeVries will take the job if it's offered to him (and buyouts are doable, etc)
 
99topdawg said:
Well you know, Beth and Brad Stevens are really close....

Darian DeVries will take the job if it's offered to him (and buyouts are doable, etc)
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I've heard similarly from others that Devries would want the Iowa job. Seems like a reach being as new as he is to WV. Is DeVries buyout a known #?
 
Devries just got signed to a 15 million dollar 5 year deal. Meaning he makes approx 3 million a year - (Fran currently at 3.3 after 15 years at Iowa fwiw)

So, after this season, you can knock 3 k off that - so 12 million - his buyout to WVU would be 37.5% of his remaining salary through the end of the deal.

So Iowa would need to buy out Fran (around 6.5 from what I've seen) and buy out about 5 million of Devries salary to WV just to get him.

I just see that as such a long shot for a school that clearly doesn't care.
 
InGoodCo said:
I don't want Fran fired in season and I think he's been an outstanding coach for Iowa. After last season and now half of this one, I am ready for a new start as a fan. While this might validate some people's belief on Fran, I haven't thought that Fran needed to be gone up until recently. Coming into this year, I was still in belief that Fran was the best man to keep us in position to be successful. But man, those Murray brothers, Luka and Weisy seem like way distant memories now. I feel like Devries would be a home run hire and I don't know that Iowa is in position for one of those, so my sights are aimed dramatically lower. Our AD is going to have to sell the shit out of this opportunity and even with that we are still facing an uphill battle.

For years I've said that Fran is better than Iowa, and, in my mind, most of his coaching career has been. This is not. This is embarrassing. This is not being competitive. This is losing by 30+ on the road and getting down 16 points every game before you get the other team to take their foot off the gas and hope to light them up down the stretch. That's not a winning recipe for any Iowa basketball team I've known. Right now, we have no identity, nothing to hang out hats on, and really can't point towards any hope that things are going to change.

Iowa will need to completely reinvent itself as a program - the roster needs and will be blown up. Commits will go elsewhere and some good pieces probably leave. That's how it works. I am ready for it. It might be way worse but I feel like Fran doesn't have an answer here and while we don't need A+ coaching at Iowa, we need coaches who have the answer. Fran doesn't appear to have that this season and 2 years of not making the dance doesn't cut it at Iowa.
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Yup we need to all just come to grips with that. It'll probably be 2 steps back before we take a step forward for a couple yrs too. Expecting an overnight turnaround isn't realistic either. Even though with hoops you're only a couple stud players away from kinda doing that. It's just gonna be a crazy tough sell to recruit for whomever gets the job next.
 
InGoodCo said:
Devries just got signed to a 15 million dollar 5 year deal. Meaning he makes approx 3 million a year - (Fran currently at 3.3 after 15 years at Iowa fwiw)

So, after this season, you can knock 3 k off that - so 12 million - his buyout to WVU would be 37.5% of his remaining salary through the end of the deal.

So Iowa would need to buy out Fran (around 6.5 from what I've seen) and buy out about 5 million of Devries salary to WV just to get him.

I just see that as such a long shot for a school that clearly doesn't care.
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Thanks for digging up the numbers. I agree I don't see the powers that be for Iowa or boosters caring enough to pony up to make that all happen. I suppose it's not impossible for a couple rich boosters to get together and did it but it'd sure surprise me if so.

The yin and the yang to finding a new coach will be interesting because I don't know how good of a coach would want this bad Iowa job. They'd have to overpay big time one would think to attract one. So if Iowa's gonna be cheap they could go the young route and give someone their first gig. A Gatens, Horner, I know Oliver had gotten out of coaching but someone like that who they wouldn't have to overpay at 3.5 milly or more/yr. Maybe more like 2.5

For those with delusions of grandeur wanting DeVries the numbers seem to make it damn near impossible. We shoulda made this move last yr... Go figure.
 
The issue of actually being able to get players here is a bigger obstacle than buyouts. Like I said, no matter the coach, you have to be able to pay players well and if you find a performer better than what Iowa currently has (if you don't you're going to be in the same situation you are now) you're going to need to be able to match market price to keep him here. Iowa hasn't shown they're willing or able to do that in the basketball program like they do with football. That's why you have all these coaches getting fed up and retiring...their coaching skill isn't the most important piece of the pie anymore...it's the size of the collective. Don't take my word for it, there are lots of people a whole lot more knowledgeable than anyone on this board saying the same thing. Coaches are saying the same thing.

You could have the hottest coach around and a brand new arena full of fans but if you can write the necessary checks, you're cooked.
 
This list is obviously not hard numbers, but do we really think Iowa is in a place where they're willing to put even one guy on this top 100 list? Every top 25 team in the AP is represented on the list and most of them have multiple players on it.

nebraska is on it.

Penn State is on it.

Rutgers is on it.

Iowa State has multiple players on it.
 
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