Iowa's Projected Offensive Stats

spudhawk

spudhawk

Well-Known Member
I want to take a stab at Iowa's offensive stats again. Here are the two links from the previous seasons: Early Picks: Iowa’s 2010 Stats | Hawkeye Nation and Projection: 2011 Offensive Stats | Hawkeye Nation.

I am projecting Iowa to score 401 points on offense (422 overall- combination of 3 special teams and defensive TDs) which consists of 50 TDs, no missed extra points and 17 field goals. I am expecting Iowa to score 7 more TDs strictly on offense this season due to returning skill position talent at QB and in the passing game- Davis, Martin-Manley, and Fiedorowicz taking pressure off the running game and a very easy home schedule. Iowa has the ability to score 30+ points against nearly every team on the schedule and face only four quality defenses this season- @ Michigan State, Penn State, @ Michigan and Nebraska. Iowa has the opportunity to score 40+ points in at least 5 games this season.

Reasons for Confidence: Iowa returns a starting QB who threw for over 3,000 yards last season with a great 25/7 TD/INT ratio and was absolutely stellar at home. Iowa plays 7 home games (along with a de facto home game at Soldier field versus a Northern Illinois team that gave up over 30 ppg in MAC play last season) against several soft defensive teams statistically. Iowa returns 3 of their top five targeted receivers including Keenan Davis (who struggled at times catching the ball and missed some time with an ankle injury) Kevonte Martin Manley who had 30 receptions as a red- shirt freshman and CJ Fiedorowicz (actually 6th on the team in targets) who is a size/speed mismatch waiting to happen. Iowa is fairly green on the offensive line replacing three starters who have a chance to stick in the NFL, but have a very soft opening schedule in which they should have time to gel. Iowa's passing offense should take a step forward with the addition of Greg Davis as offensive coordinator.

Reasons for Pessimism: Iowa has no sure option at tailback, little proven depth at receiver, and may take some time to break in a new offense and the new offensive lineman. Iowa cannot afford an injury to JVB as Rudock will be entering his red shirt freshman year and will likely get limited reps given the transition to the new offense. Iowa has had more talented teams at every position and has scored over 30 points per game only once since the 2002 season (2008).

I imported an excel file so I am hoping the stats line up better than they have in previous iterations. Here is the meat:


Points PPG T. Yards TYPG TD (OFF) FG 3RD 3RD ATT 3RD% RZ RZ ATT RZ TD TZ% TD%
422 32.5 5037 387.5 50 17 85 181 46.9 50 62 38 80.6 61.3

R. ATT GAIN LOSS NET AVG. TD FBL LOST FBL
499 2146 254 1892 3.8 21 21 9

COMP ATT YARDS TD INT YPC YPA %
270 424 3145 29 7 11.6 7.4

QB G COMP ATT YARDS TD INT YPC YPA TD% INT%
JVB 13 259 406 3051 28 5 11.8 7.5 6.9 1.2
Rudock 6 11 18 94 1 2 8.5 5.2 5.6 11.1

Player RUSH GAIN LOSS NET TD FBL LOSS AVG
Bullock 187 807 41 766 5 4 2 4.1
Johnson 132 551 11 540 5 3 1 4.1
Hill 53 265 4 261 2 3 1 4.9
Garmon 43 193 8 185 2 4 2 4.3
JVB 53 165 161 4 4 5 2 0.1
Rogers 17 77 3 74 2 0 0 4.4
K-Mart 8 71 0 71 0 0 0 8.9
Rudock 6 17 26 -9 1 2 1 -1.5

Player REC YARDS TD YPC TAR
Davis 77 1,024 10 13.3 132
K-Mart 67 743 6 11.1 112
CJ Fed 48 782 7 16.3 75
Bullock 22 139 2 6.3 34
Shump. 16 214 0 13.4 30
Derby 12 82 1 6.8 22
Johnson 9 43 1 4.8 17
Staggs 7 65 1 9.3 15
Hamilt. 6 30 1 5 13
Others 6 23 0 3.9 20
 
How did you possibly come up with these stats other than straight out of your a$$ since Iowa has a new OC and we have no clue what he is going to do for Iowa? It's a nice effort by you but not worth much IMO.
 
Hey spudhawk, I have some numbers I need crunched.

Seriously, I am expecting at least one more offensive scoring possesion per game this year be it TD or FG. We may even see some really high scoring games because I think OC GD will get the ball to receivers in space in a better fashion leading to more YAC and more big plays. I think GD will suck in the defense with short passing game and then go over the top with long scoring plays.

I think the oline will be above avg and the run game will be good enough.

Hawks 8-4.
 
BearcatHawkeye said:
How did you possibly come up with these stats other than straight out of your a$$ since Iowa has a new OC and we have no clue what he is going to do for Iowa? It's a nice effort by you but not worth much IMO.
Click to expand...

I have done this for several seasons now, but this season was a bit more challenging. I compared Texas stats from 2001 -2010 to Iowa's stats from the same time period, looked at each opponents last two years defensively paying special attention to their performance (if available) against Iowa, and then made my projections based off of a couple of excel files.
 
BearcatHawkeye said:
How did you possibly come up with these stats other than straight out of your a$$ since Iowa has a new OC and we have no clue what he is going to do for Iowa? It's a nice effort by you but not worth much IMO.
Click to expand...

Just wait, I'm sure Spud did his homework and it will probably end up being real close to what he predicted.
 
Spud do you think that many runningbacks will make it on the field? They might end up with more receiving yards than rushing yards. Cant wait to find out!
 
I like most of it. I feel like hill and bullock will lead the team in carries. Think their skill sets compliment each other well. I also think that they will put up numbers a little lower but similar to wegher and robinson. I think they are lower because of 2 reasons 1) JVB will pass more and 2) we will use johnson, rogers, garmon a little and that will lower their yards.
 
By observation last year, Bullock has decent enough hands that when Davis says they may do more passes to the Rb, Bullock may be that guy that will get some of those passes. Spud had him with 22. So that might be dead on.

Good Stuff Spud, now you really have our excitement for football going!
 
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