Iowa's possible road to the National Championship

R

Rawkhawk73

Banned
I took the top 16 teams in the BCS and laid out each of their schedules and W and L'd each of their remaining games. I then attempted to guesstimate where they may end up after each week within the BCS standings. One of the things I did was after a team had a loss, I stopped projecting them because I think we're late enough in the season that a loss is pretty much going to drop you out of the picture for the most part (with a few exceptions). Before I get into what I think has to happen, a few tidbits:

1. No other team has more Top 16 teams left on their schedule than Iowa (3). In fact, three teams (Oregon, Boise, Stanford) have no Top 16 teams left.

2. There is essentially a 3 team playoff in the SEC over the next 6 weeks as Auburn, LSU and Alabama all still play each other with each team playing one at home and one away. If the games fall right (meaning none of the teams sweep) I think they can essentially eliminate each other.

3. Missouri is a wildcard right now. The next 2 weeks, they play the 2 Top 16 teams left on their schedule in succession. If they happen to win those 2, then look out because the rest of their schedule is a cakewalk.

4. TCU and Utah are interesting. TCU has to go to Utah, but the rest of their schedule is easy. However, Utah still has a few tests in going to Air Force and to Notre Dame. We definitely want Utah to beat TCU and then lose one or both of Air Force and/or Notre Dame.

5. Boise has nothing left and should be ashamed to even call that a schedule. Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada. However, based on what I think needs to happen to get Iowa in the National Championship, I think they still end up #1 in the BCS just based on attrition of other teams.

Here's what I think needs to happen week by week (obviously with Iowa winning out):

10/23/10
Oklahoma loses at Missouri
LSU loses at Auburn
Nebraska loses at Oklahoma State

I don't think this is completely out of the question as all three are road games for my predicted loser and all three are against top 16 teams.

10/30/10
Missouri loses at Nebraska

This is the only game where there seems to be a chance at an upset. All of the other games are fairly easy for the rest of the Top 16. Oregon does play USC, but with as bad as USC is on defense, the Ducks may put up 70 points.

11/6/10
TCU loses at Utah
Alabama loses at LSU
Stanford loses to Arizona

11/13/10
Utah loses at Notre Dame
Okie State loses at Texas

11/20/10
Other than Iowa-OSU, there doesn't appear to be any other games that look promising for upsets.

11/27/10
Oregon loses to Arizona
Auburn loses at Alabama
LSU loses at Arkansas

Oregon is a huge key to all of this over the next 6 weeks I think. Since they have no Top 16 teams left, they have the greatest chance of running the table. I know Boise does too, but since I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that they aren't losing, then it has to come from somewhere else. So if Oregon gets by Arizona, then they need to lose at Oregon State the following week.



Based on the above games and assuming Iowa wins out, I think they would finish the regular season as #2 in the BCS behind Boise State. The big question is what happens based on the conference championship games. Based on the game results above, Oklahoma would have a rematch with Missouri and Auburn would face probably South Carolina (but who knows as the East is terrible). Either way, the one remaining question is whether under this scenario a one-loss Auburn or Oklahoma (assuming they both would win) would jump a one-loss Iowa team that finished 8-0 in the Big 10. In the end, I'd just like to get to that point with Iowa at #2 and let the chips fall and see what happens.
 
So you're saying there's a chance. :D


Thanks for the breakdown. I tried to do that and look at the schedules of all the teams ahead of Iowa but ADD kicked in and I lost interest. While this is obviously a LLOOOONNNNGGGG shot, its not exactly 1 in a million.
 
False. I admire your optimism, but you forget that 2/3 of the BCS is human polls...and in case you haven't seen how voters vote lately...its utterly retarded. Beauty contests and allegiances over real life performances. Alabama could probably finish with 3 losses and still make the Sugar Bowl because pollsters are that stupid. Even if Iowa wins out IMO the best we can hope for is BCS at large (with the Rose Bowl's stupid non-AQ rule thing)
 
beaverdaleguy said:
False. I admire your optimism, but you forget that 2/3 of the BCS is human polls...and in case you haven't seen how voters vote lately...its utterly retarded. Beauty contests and allegiances over real life performances. Alabama could probably finish with 3 losses and still make the Sugar Bowl because pollsters are that stupid. Even if Iowa wins out IMO the best we can hope for is BCS at large (with the Rose Bowl's stupid non-AQ rule thing)
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If we win out we will not have to hope for an At large. As the Big Ten Champion we will be guaranteed a BCS game.
 
The only thing I disagree on is Missouri/Oklahoma. OU is probably the only team out there that could absorb a loss right now and still make the NC game. Mizzu needs to lose to OU, win out and then beat OU in the B12 Title Game. At that point the NC game can not grab OU because they didn't win their conference, and really who wants Missouri playing for the NC.

Other than that your post looks great. However it's a long, long road for the Hawks!
 
beaverdaleguy said:
False. I admire your optimism, but you forget that 2/3 of the BCS is human polls...and in case you haven't seen how voters vote lately...its utterly retarded. Beauty contests and allegiances over real life performances. Alabama could probably finish with 3 losses and still make the Sugar Bowl because pollsters are that stupid. Even if Iowa wins out IMO the best we can hope for is BCS at large (with the Rose Bowl's stupid non-AQ rule thing)
Click to expand...

If Iowa wins out they go to the Rose Bowl automatically, the only way the Rose Bowl's non AQ rule comes into play is if the Big Ten or PAC 10 champ is in the NC instead of the Rose Bowl.
 
hawkeyescott said:
If Iowa wins out they go to the Rose Bowl automatically, the only way the Rose Bowl's non AQ rule comes into play is if the Big Ten or PAC 10 champ is in the NC instead of the Rose Bowl.
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But you are assuming they take the Big Ten Champ vs Boise over the Pac whatever Champ vs Boise..why not take Pac 10?
 
beaverdaleguy said:
False. I admire your optimism, but you forget that 2/3 of the BCS is human polls...and in case you haven't seen how voters vote lately...its utterly retarded. Beauty contests and allegiances over real life performances. Alabama could probably finish with 3 losses and still make the Sugar Bowl because pollsters are that stupid. Even if Iowa wins out IMO the best we can hope for is BCS at large (with the Rose Bowl's stupid non-AQ rule thing)
Click to expand...

I don't necessarily disagree with the spirit of your post, but you're a little over the top.

There is no way that an Alabama team with 2 losses and who doesn't even make the SEC Championship is going to be ranked ahead of an Iowa team that swept the Big 10 at 8-0 and beat 5 ranked teams in the process.

Like I said, the real question to me is whether or not a 1 loss Oklahoma team (whose 1 loss happened at game 6 instead of game 3) that wins the Big 12 Championship game would make it over a 1 loss Iowa team. I think we'd be 3 or 4 spots higher than them in the computer polls based on their schedule compared to ours. However, the question becomes, what is the point separation in the Coaches and Harris poll if they are ranked higher in those two? Remember, BSC points don't come from your outright ranking, but in the "point" totals. So Oklahoma could be #2 and we could be #3 in the Coaches and Harris, but if the point separation is close enough that our computer strength made that up, we'd still go ahead of them.

I just like the fact that we're still in the conversation. And don't discount Herbstreit continuing to lobby for us. It keeps us in the spotlight nationally and a lot of people respect Herbstreit's opinion.

We'll see what happens.
 
hwkwyld said:
The only thing I disagree on is Missouri/Oklahoma. OU is probably the only team out there that could absorb a loss right now and still make the NC game. Mizzu needs to lose to OU, win out and then beat OU in the B12 Title Game. At that point the NC game can not grab OU because they didn't win their conference, and really who wants Missouri playing for the NC.

Other than that your post looks great. However it's a long, long road for the Hawks!
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OU is #1 because of the computers. They're #3 and #4 in the human polls. A loss will take them way out, especially if Mizzou doesn't win the North. Remember how hard we fell in the computers after losing to Northwestern last year? The same will happen to OU.
 
hawkeyescott said:
If Iowa wins out they go to the Rose Bowl automatically, the only way the Rose Bowl's non AQ rule comes into play is if the Big Ten or PAC 10 champ is in the NC instead of the Rose Bowl.
Click to expand...

That's not true. If a non AQ is in the Top 8, then the Rose Bowl is obligated to take it unless that non AQ is in the National Championship Game. In other words, if Boise makes it to the NC and TCU is in the Top 8, they don't have to take TCU. But if Boise doesn't make the NC, then the Rose Bowl must select a non AQ if there is one in the Top 8.

Edit: I re-read the rules and was wrong. The Rose Bowl has to lose a team to the NCG for the non AQ rule to kick in.
 
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beaverdaleguy said:
But you are assuming they take the Big Ten Champ vs Boise over the Pac whatever Champ vs Boise..why not take Pac 10?
Click to expand...

If the Pac-10 champ (presumably Oregon) goes to the NCG, the Boise takes their spot in the Rose Bowl to play us (if we win the BT and don't go to the NCG). If neither the Pac-10 champ or BT champ make the NCG, then Boise doesn't play in the Rose Bowl. They are just an automatic replacement pick.
 
Rawkhawk73 said:
I don't necessarily disagree with the spirit of your post, but you're a little over the top.

There is no way that an Alabama team with 2 losses and who doesn't even make the SEC Championship is going to be ranked ahead of an Iowa team that swept the Big 10 at 8-0 and beat 5 ranked teams in the process.

Like I said, the real question to me is whether or not a 1 loss Oklahoma team (whose 1 loss happened at game 6 instead of game 3) that wins the Big 12 Championship game would make it over a 1 loss Iowa team. I think we'd be 3 or 4 spots higher than them in the computer polls based on their schedule compared to ours. However, the question becomes, what is the point separation in the Coaches and Harris poll if they are ranked higher in those two? Remember, BSC points don't come from your outright ranking, but in the "point" totals. So Oklahoma could be #2 and we could be #3 in the Coaches and Harris, but if the point separation is close enough that our computer strength made that up, we'd still go ahead of them.

I just like the fact that we're still in the conversation. And don't discount Herbstreit continuing to lobby for us. It keeps us in the spotlight nationally and a lot of people respect Herbstreit's opinion.

We'll see what happens.
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I was exhaturating (sp?). Obviously with 2 unbeatens still in the SEC West Bama is a long shot at the GeorgiaDome...let alone the NC game. My point is you have people all over the country still voting for Florida in the top 15 just because they are Florida. Use whatever example you want, it is hard to earn your way to the top if you aren't the flavor of the week.
 
Rawkhawk73 said:
That's not true. If a non AQ is in the Top 8, then the Rose Bowl is obligated to take it unless that non AQ is in the National Championship Game. In other words, if Boise makes it to the NC and TCU is in the Top 8, they don't have to take TCU. But if Boise doesn't make the NC, then the Rose Bowl must select a non AQ if there is one in the Top 8.
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Only if Oregon or Iowa (just projecting conference champs) is playing in the NCG. If neither makes it to the NCG, then Boise is either in the NCG, or is a replacement pick in a different BCS bowl. The Rose Bowl is just obligated to take them as a replacement pick (if they need a replacement pick).
 
tm3308 said:
Only if Oregon or Iowa (just projecting conference champs) is playing in the NCG. If neither makes it to the NCG, then Boise is either in the NCG, or is a replacement pick in a different BCS bowl. The Rose Bowl is just obligated to take them as a replacement pick (if they need a replacement pick).
Click to expand...

You're right, I edited my post.
 
Thanks for laying this all out. Good stuff.

The other complicating factor: obviously we want Oregon to lose. But if it's Arizona that beats them, and Arizona doesn't lose to anyone else (meaning they beat Stanford), that isn't exactly ideal, is it? I know we're ranked ahead of them, and I know stranger things have happened, but if a one-loss Iowa team went to the NCG ahead of a one-loss Arizona team, the BCS might finally explode. Which is fine by me.

Far-fetched, I know. But this has the feel of a crazy season to me. It's already been way more fun than the last couple of years.
 
Iowa will jump in the computer rankings, we know that. The human polls is where the work needs to be done. Iowa honestly needs to beat Wisconsin, MSU, and Ohio State by huge margins to get these lamers to change their votes. All things considering, I give Iowa a 1% chance of making the NC game. I'd be fine with a 11-1 regular season, Big Ten Title, and a trip to the Rose bowl.
 
we need Oregon to lose
Oklahoma to lose
winner of LSU/Auburn to lose
And also Alambama to lose again.

Of course Mizz and Oklahoma St. too

I wonder what would happen if all this happen except one thing.

and if the human rankings were

1. Alabama 11-1 or Oregon 12-0 or Auburn/LSU 12-0 or Oklahoma 12-0
2. Boise 12-0
3 Iowa 11-1
4. TCU 12-0

would Iowa be able to jump Boise with the Computers.

If Iowa was 3 in the two human polls and 2 in the computers, and boise was 2 in the Humans and 6 in the computers. Iowa would jump them in the BCS rankings I believe.

Right now boise is 7 in the computers and there schedule gets much worse.
 
olivecourt said:
Thanks for laying this all out. Good stuff.

The other complicating factor: obviously we want Oregon to lose. But if it's Arizona that beats them, and Arizona doesn't lose to anyone else (meaning they beat Stanford), that isn't exactly ideal, is it? I know we're ranked ahead of them, and I know stranger things have happened, but if a one-loss Iowa team went to the NCG ahead of a one-loss Arizona team, the BCS might finally explode. Which is fine by me.

Far-fetched, I know. But this has the feel of a crazy season to me. It's already been way more fun than the last couple of years.
Click to expand...

Don't forget, Arizona will be without Foles for the next 2-3 games. They play Washington, @ UCLA, and @ Stanford. Odds are, they lose at least one of those games without Foles. Stanford will win if Foles is not playing. UCLA has a good shot, and Washington's offense can be explosive. Preferrably, 'Zona loses to Washington or UCLA, then Foles comes back and beats Stanford (as the Cardinal is ahead of us, too) and Oregon. Those odds are long. Oregon State could also beat Stanford, and the Civil War is always crazy.
 
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