Iowa's Offense Last year: Killing itself on 1st down

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
This is an interesting read

Four Yard Minimum |

It's from an ISU fan that I know who is doing some custom statistical analysis.

For this, he took each down, and some down and distances, and calculated the percentage of time an offense gained 4 or more yards in that situation..then ranked teams on it.

On 1st and 10+, Iowa ranked 95th out of 124 schools in the percentage of times they gained more than four yards in that instance.

I've written and said for years that Iowa has to be one of the worst third and long teams in the nation, and that if Iowa is empty on first down, you may as well cue the punt team. That was too much, but Iowa was 8th in the B1G related to gaining four or more yards when the situation was 2nd and 10 or more.

On 3rd and 1-3 yards to go, Iowa was 111th in the sport in getting 4 or more yards. Surprisingly, Wisconsin ranked behind them and was 121st.

Nor surprisingly, Iowa ranked 116th in the nation in yards per play last year at 4.79 and only Illinois was worse from the Big Ten.

On the flip side, Iowa's defense was 112th in the nation on 1st and 10+ in allowing four or more yards, worst in the Big Ten.

There may be other things there in those numbers that you see, but it's just another reminder of how dismal Iowa's offense was last year.
 
Good night! Those are some atrocious numbers. With this thread and the weather we've been having, makes me wanna go back to hibernation until bb. :(
 
1hawkeye1 said:
Good night! Those are some atrocious numbers. With this thread and the weather we've been having, makes me wanna go back to hibernation until bb. :(
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I hear what you're saying. But I've got to believe those numbers were as bad or worse in 2007. Then 2008 happened. Then 2009 happened.

Now, I'm not saying we have a Shonn Greene sitting on the roster. But what I am saying is that I think the 3 headed monster of Weisman, Bullock and Canzeri can produce about the same yardage (1,800+) as Greene did by himself....especially if the offensive line stays healthy. Having that kind of production from the running game with be the QBs best friend, whomever it ends up being. I honestly think we'll be fine on offense. In years where we've had a good/great offensive line, our offense has done extremely well. Next year, my biggest fear is on the defensive side of the ball. Unless James Morris suddenly unleashes his inner Pat Angerer or one of the interior DL unleashes his inner Mitch King, I think it's going to be a long year on the defensive side of the ball.
 
SpiderRico said:
I hear what you're saying. But I've got to believe those numbers were as bad or worse in 2007. Then 2008 happened. Then 2009 happened.

Now, I'm not saying we have a Shonn Greene sitting on the roster. But what I am saying is that I think the 3 headed monster of Weisman, Bullock and Canzeri can produce about the same yardage (1,800+) as Greene did by himself....especially if the offensive line stays healthy. Having that kind of production from the running game with be the QBs best friend, whomever it ends up being. I honestly think we'll be fine on offense. In years where we've had a good/great offensive line, our offense has done extremely well. Next year, my biggest fear is on the defensive side of the ball. Unless James Morris suddenly unleashes his inner Pat Angerer or one of the interior DL unleashes his inner Mitch King, I think it's going to be a long year on the defensive side of the ball.
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I'm no football guru, but I guess it all starts in the trenches. A good offensive line and a solid running game will certainly help on first down. Of course, if you can't throw the ball any better than Iowa did in 2012, then it's going to be hard to run the ball when your opponent's defense has no fear of loading the box. Gotta be able to throw the ball a little bit and stretch the field IMO, then it should get a whole lot easier to run the ball if your opponent has defend more than 5-10 yards down field.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
I'm no football guru, but I guess it all starts in the trenches. A good offensive line and a solid running game will certainly help on first down. Of course, if you can't throw the ball any better than Iowa did in 2012, then it's going to be hard to run the ball when your opponent's defense has no fear of loading the box. Gotta be able to throw the ball a little bit and stretch the field IMO, then it should get a whole lot easier to run the ball if your opponent has defend more than 5-10 yards down field.
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Agree. Also an O that can move the ball is a D's best friend. If we can not stretch it a bit, we are going to have to play the smash and gash game and just plain pound other d's. This will look really good at first, but I wonder if we are deep enough to play that game for an entire season.
 
I can tell you this. If Greg Davis' offensive scheme continues to throw the ball 15 yards laterally for a 1 yard gain... the natives will get restless pretty damn fast. And I'll be helping to light the torches.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
I can tell you this. If Greg Davis' offensive scheme continues to throw the ball 15 yards laterally for a 1 yard gain... the natives will get restless pretty damn fast. And I'll be helping to light the torches.
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I've never participated in the booing at Kinnick Stadium, but if we see a lot of this again in 2013, I might reconsider.
 
Did Jon really need to go to an actuary to come up with this statistical analysis? couldn't his eyeballs just tell him that.:)
 
I want to believe that the passing offense is going to take a magical leap forward...I really do.

Just don't see it happening.
 
this is not surprising at all. validates my intuitive sense and rationalizes my frustration. There you have it the anatomy of a 4-8 team. A bit of innovation might have helped but it would not have made a huge difference.
 
bighawkeyedaddy said:
Um, doesn't that statistical analysis show that Iowa was actually ranked worse at 3rd and short than on first and ten?
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LOL! no surprise.

The hawks stunk on 1st down but made up for it by stinking worse on 3rd down. It was hapless offense last year. Wish I could have accepted that on September 1st and sat back and watched it happen.
 
Hope the Oline plays lights out all game every game because if they don't it'll be a tough year. I don't see this team making big plays in the passing game so they'll have to methodically put drives together by running the ball and converting the all so important 3rd downs. Having a game breaker at WR would be huge if one of them could be that guy. (and the qb get them the ball) It also seemed like the precious few times they'd get in the red zone it ended up in fg attempts. That has to be an improved stat also. Otherwise expect more of the same next yr and success will lie on if the running game can be Wisconsin like dominant.
 
Hawkfnntn said:
Hope the Oline plays lights out all game every game because if they don't it'll be a tough year. I don't see this team making big plays in the passing game so they'll have to methodically put drives together by running the ball and converting the all so important 3rd downs. Having a game breaker at WR would be huge if one of them could be that guy. (and the qb get them the ball) It also seemed like the precious few times they'd get in the red zone it ended up in fg attempts. That has to be an improved stat also. Otherwise expect more of the same next yr and success will lie on if the running game can be Wisconsin like dominant.
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I reiterate, if Iowa has receivers who do not lead the Big in dropped passes, they may well play better than .500 in conference.
 
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