hawkeyegrant
Well-Known Member
I know there's another thread, but I posted a blog a couple days ago and thought I'd share. I also think the other thread overlooked several points.
It is still not outside the realm of possibility for Iowa to get into the National Championship game, so I thought I would logically lay out my thoughts on how it might happen. If you’re one of those people who thinks it’s jinxing the Hawks, or that we should ‘take it one game at a time’ then please stop reading. I don’t play for Iowa, so I can take it a season at a time if I wish. My thoughts will have no outcome on the future games, I promise. I want to write about this now because if we lose again, I won’t be able to write about it then, will I?
So here are some random thoughts and wishes for Iowa fans to look at over the next several weeks. First, here’s the poll:
1. Oklahoma
2. Oregon
3. Boise State
4. Auburn
5. TCU
6. LSU
7. Michigan State
8. Alabama
9. Utah
10. Ohio State
11. Missouri
12. Stanford
13. Wisconsin
14. Oklahoma State
15. Iowa
2 Slots and 13 spots in the way. At number 15 to start the BCS, Iowa would be the first team outside the top 12 in the initial BCS to play for the title, so it’s a long shot. But we don’t necessarily need 13 teams in front of us to lose to get into the game. Some of these teams will be passed simply because we will have bigger wins if we win out, and a lot of teams lack the schedule we will play.
So win out. First and foremost, we obviously have to win out for any chance. We could still lose one game and make the Rose Bowl, but for the sake of this argument we have to win out. Doing so also eliminates all other Big Ten teams from contention. Cross ‘em off.
TCU, Boise, and Utah are irrelevant. See my first point. I know they would argue otherwise, but sorry folks, you are not getting into the title game over a one-loss Iowa team that goes 8-0 in the Big Ten. Not gonna happen. Don’t care who you played in week one, two, or three. They may look good now, but they will get passed by teams getting quality wins down the stretch. We will only see one of these teams in the title game if there is only one BCS school with one loss and every other relevant team has two losses.
The SEC will continue to eat itself. I don’t really get how people continue to watch these games and insist that this is the best conference in college football. Kentucky could win the East, for crying out loud. LSU is going to lose, probably twice with road games at Auburn and Arkansas, and still a date with Alabama. Auburn is going to lose, hopefully twice but once for sure; I think they’ll beat LSU but then drop a road game to either Ole Miss or Alabama. The wild card is whether anyone will get to Alabama again, because a one-loss Alabama team gets in over a one-loss Iowa team whether I like it or not.
Oregon will not run the table. They are really the only Pac 10 team with a shot at the title game (Sorry Stanford, but you can’t lose by 21 and still make it. Also sorry to Arizona, but you’re going to lose again). The Ducks still have the following in front of them: at USC, at Cal, home against Arizona, and at Oregon State. Call me crazy, but there are two losses in there.
Oklahoma won’t either. Since Nebraska decided to not show up against Texas in Lincoln, OU is the only Big 12 team with a shot. Iowa’s strength of schedule will win out against a one-loss Nebraska team. OU still plays at Mizzou, at A&M, and at Oklahoma State. Tack on the title game against either Nebraska or Mizzou again, and you’ve got at least one loss if not two. They won’t lose at home, but they’ll screw it up somewhere. The problem is that a one-loss OU team could look better than Iowa to Coaches and Harris voters.
So here’s the updated list:
1. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
15. Iowa
That leaves Iowa and the two real threats: Oklahoma and Alabama. My fear is that all three teams with one loss would leave Iowa out in the cold; definitely with Alabama and highly likely with Oklahoma. Keep in mind that they both play conference championship games, so we could benefit by sitting back and watching them lose. Alabama didn’t exactly look like world-beaters against Ole Miss, and OU has struggled mightily against the likes of Utah State and Air Force. The point here is that the National Championship game is possible. Iowa needs a lot of help, but not as much as it first seems when you really break it down. So Hawk fans, cheer hard for Missouri this Saturday night, and pray that Alabama can stub their toe one more time. Now let’s not go and do something stupid, like losing to Wisconsin, that could end this argument way too soon. Go Hawks!
It is still not outside the realm of possibility for Iowa to get into the National Championship game, so I thought I would logically lay out my thoughts on how it might happen. If you’re one of those people who thinks it’s jinxing the Hawks, or that we should ‘take it one game at a time’ then please stop reading. I don’t play for Iowa, so I can take it a season at a time if I wish. My thoughts will have no outcome on the future games, I promise. I want to write about this now because if we lose again, I won’t be able to write about it then, will I?
So here are some random thoughts and wishes for Iowa fans to look at over the next several weeks. First, here’s the poll:
1. Oklahoma
2. Oregon
3. Boise State
4. Auburn
5. TCU
6. LSU
7. Michigan State
8. Alabama
9. Utah
10. Ohio State
11. Missouri
12. Stanford
13. Wisconsin
14. Oklahoma State
15. Iowa
2 Slots and 13 spots in the way. At number 15 to start the BCS, Iowa would be the first team outside the top 12 in the initial BCS to play for the title, so it’s a long shot. But we don’t necessarily need 13 teams in front of us to lose to get into the game. Some of these teams will be passed simply because we will have bigger wins if we win out, and a lot of teams lack the schedule we will play.
So win out. First and foremost, we obviously have to win out for any chance. We could still lose one game and make the Rose Bowl, but for the sake of this argument we have to win out. Doing so also eliminates all other Big Ten teams from contention. Cross ‘em off.
TCU, Boise, and Utah are irrelevant. See my first point. I know they would argue otherwise, but sorry folks, you are not getting into the title game over a one-loss Iowa team that goes 8-0 in the Big Ten. Not gonna happen. Don’t care who you played in week one, two, or three. They may look good now, but they will get passed by teams getting quality wins down the stretch. We will only see one of these teams in the title game if there is only one BCS school with one loss and every other relevant team has two losses.
The SEC will continue to eat itself. I don’t really get how people continue to watch these games and insist that this is the best conference in college football. Kentucky could win the East, for crying out loud. LSU is going to lose, probably twice with road games at Auburn and Arkansas, and still a date with Alabama. Auburn is going to lose, hopefully twice but once for sure; I think they’ll beat LSU but then drop a road game to either Ole Miss or Alabama. The wild card is whether anyone will get to Alabama again, because a one-loss Alabama team gets in over a one-loss Iowa team whether I like it or not.
Oregon will not run the table. They are really the only Pac 10 team with a shot at the title game (Sorry Stanford, but you can’t lose by 21 and still make it. Also sorry to Arizona, but you’re going to lose again). The Ducks still have the following in front of them: at USC, at Cal, home against Arizona, and at Oregon State. Call me crazy, but there are two losses in there.
Oklahoma won’t either. Since Nebraska decided to not show up against Texas in Lincoln, OU is the only Big 12 team with a shot. Iowa’s strength of schedule will win out against a one-loss Nebraska team. OU still plays at Mizzou, at A&M, and at Oklahoma State. Tack on the title game against either Nebraska or Mizzou again, and you’ve got at least one loss if not two. They won’t lose at home, but they’ll screw it up somewhere. The problem is that a one-loss OU team could look better than Iowa to Coaches and Harris voters.
So here’s the updated list:
1. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
15. Iowa
That leaves Iowa and the two real threats: Oklahoma and Alabama. My fear is that all three teams with one loss would leave Iowa out in the cold; definitely with Alabama and highly likely with Oklahoma. Keep in mind that they both play conference championship games, so we could benefit by sitting back and watching them lose. Alabama didn’t exactly look like world-beaters against Ole Miss, and OU has struggled mightily against the likes of Utah State and Air Force. The point here is that the National Championship game is possible. Iowa needs a lot of help, but not as much as it first seems when you really break it down. So Hawk fans, cheer hard for Missouri this Saturday night, and pray that Alabama can stub their toe one more time. Now let’s not go and do something stupid, like losing to Wisconsin, that could end this argument way too soon. Go Hawks!
