Iowa's B1G Bracket Possibilities (updated 10:30pm March 3rd)

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
I have put together several scenarios for Iowa's Big Ten Tournament seeding based on their win at Indiana on Tuesday night and an assumption of them beating Northwestern on Saturday. Tomorrow night's Michigan State v Purdue game has big implications for Iowa's seed, as do this weekend's games between Michigan State at Indiana and Illinois at Purdue. Here is what I came up with, including full brackets:

http://hawkeyenation.com/b…/iowas-b1g-tourney-seed-scenarios
 
The one option I don't want to have to look at, but did anyway was what if Iowa lost to jNW? They could still get a 4 seed with MSU beating Purdue and losing to Indiana, and Purdue losing to Ill. and OSU losing to Wisconsin:

1. Wisconsin (16 - 2)
2. Maryland (14 - 4)
3. Michigan State (11 - 7) Defeated Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State based on round-robin record.
4. Iowa (11 - 7) With Purdue, defeated Ohio State and lost to Michigan State based on round-robin record. Defeated Purdue based on record against #2 teams.
5. Purdue (11 - 7) With Iowa, defeated Ohio State and lost to Michigan State based on round-robin record. Lost to Iowa based on record against #2 teams.
6. Ohio State (11 - 7) Lost to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue based on round-robin record.
7. Indiana (10 - 8) Defeated Illinois based on head-to-head record.
8. Illinois (10 - 8) Lost to Indiana based on head-to-head record.
9. Michigan (8 - 10)
10. Northwestern (7 - 11) Defeated Minnesota based on head-to-head record.
11. Minnesota (7 - 11) Lost to Northwestern based on head-to-head record.
12. Nebraska (5 - 13)
13. Penn State (3 - 15)
14. Rutgers (2 - 16)




bracket_image.php
 
If OSU wins out and MSU beats Purdue and loses to Indiana, we would be the 3 seed even if Purdue beats Illinois. If MSU and OSU win tomorow, then iowa and indiana win early saturday, we would have 2 chances at the 3 seed. Purdue losing or OSU beating Wisconsin.
 
What is the most simple scenario we should be hoping plays out to get the 4th seed? Still not 100% sure who to be pulling for or rooting against....seems that one day we want team x to lose and then 3 days later we want them to win. too much thinking involved.
 
A double bye would be huge not only because you get an extra day of rest but you practically miss any chance of a "bad loss" that might hurt the resume....like losing to NW last year in the BTT.

I say grab your double bye, take it to Izzo on Friday and roll the dice against the Badgers on Saturday.
 
Playmaker said:
What is the most simple scenario we should be hoping plays out to get the 4th seed? Still not 100% sure who to be pulling for or rooting against....seems that one day we want team x to lose and then 3 days later we want them to win. too much thinking involved.
Click to expand...

Simplest is Purdue beating MSU. This locks us in at a 4 seed if we beat Northwestern.....Some other are wanting MSU to beat Purdue and then lost to Indiana, as then Iowa would move to a 3 seed if they beat jNW.
 
mopkins said:
A double bye would be huge not only because you get an extra day of rest but you practically miss any chance of a "bad loss" that might hurt the resume....like losing to NW last year in the BTT.

I say grab your double bye, take it to Izzo on Friday and roll the dice against the Badgers on Saturday.
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Yep, that's the main reason I would like the double bye, most likely gives us nothing but good games for our RPI in our tournament.
 
Right now OSU is our friend. If they win out we are guaranteed a double bye with a win against Northwestern.
 
We lose any tie-breakers with Michigan State and Purdue. I'd say the 5 seed is where we'll end up. I expect Michigan State to win out and I expect Purdue to win at home vs. Illinois. I also expect Ohio State to lose at home vs. Wisconsin but it doesn't matter since we have the tie-breaker there. So in the end, we have a 3-way tie with Michigan State and Purdue. Michigan State ends up with the 3-seed (2wins between the 3 teams). Purdue gets the 4 (based on tie-breakers (beat iowa)) and then we end up with the 5. Totally fine with this as I think we can get Purdue. I thought we had them even without Aaron White. Didn't think we played particularly well the first time. Then we'd get the rematch with Wisconsin. Can't wait.
 
We're off the bubble. Now all we have to worry about is our seed in the BTT and the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue needs an RPI bump...and has the 2 opponents to get it. They get MSU on the road and then Illinois at home to end the season. Win both and they are off the bubble IMO. Purdue has won 8 of their last 10. Their losses were by 4 at Minnesota and by 5 at Ohio State. MSU and Illinois will have their hands full.

MSU really needs to get a split in their last 2...host Purdue then at Indiana. They probably won't slip to bubble status because of their name, coach, politics, etc. But Izzo knows they have to right the ship. They lost their last 2...home to Minnesota in OT and on the road at Wisconsin. They host Purdue and then go on the road to Indiana. It's possible MSU could end the season on a 4 game losing streak. Tonight's game should be very entertaining.

Indiana has lost 3 out of 4 including 2 home games...Purdue and Iowa. They are on the bubble and have to beat MSU in their season finale. Lose again at home for the 3rd time in 5 games and they will need a BTT run to make the NCAA Tournament.

Illinois ends their season at Purdue in desperate need of a good road win and RPI bump. This will be another hard fought game.

Bottom line...Iowa took care of business and is watching games hoping for a double bye. They're in the NCAA Tournament. The 4 teams listed above are really going to go at it over these last 5 days of the regular season. I'm just going sit back, relax and watch the fireworks.
 
PCHawk said:
If OSU wins out and MSU beats Purdue and loses to Indiana, we would be the 3 seed even if Purdue beats Illinois. If MSU and OSU win tomorow, then iowa and indiana win early saturday, we would have 2 chances at the 3 seed. Purdue losing or OSU beating Wisconsin.
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I noticed this scenario too, what's nice about this is OSU/Wisconsin don't play till Sunday. So after Iowa/NW and MSU/Indy if we got both those we could sit back and watch 2 games at different times where we could possibly get the 3.
 
I noticed a 3rd scenario where we could also get the 3 seed. If Purdue beats MSU tonight we'd still have a long shot of the 3 seed. Which we'd need OSU win @PSU tonight. Then we'd need Illinois beat Purdue Saturday and OSU to win at Wisconsin, but it wouldn't matter what happened in the MSU/Indy game. A even bigger long shot, but since we basically clinch the double bye with Purdue win, maybe this is the scenario to root for.

Edit: sorry got that backwards we'd need Indiana to beat MSU and OSU to win at Wisconsin, but it wouldn't matter what happened in purdue/ILlinois game
 
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WhitUp said:
I noticed this scenario too, what's nice about this is OSU/Wisconsin don't play till Sunday. So after Iowa/NW and MSU/Indy if we got both those we could sit back and watch 2 games at different times where we could possibly get the 3.
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I really hope this happens. That will make those 2 games really fun to watch.
 
Ok I think I figured out the scenarios for impacts on tonights games for Iowa to get the 3 seed. 4 possible outcomes to tonights games.(feel free to double check these I think I'm right)

Ideal scenario
MSU and OSU both win tonight, then this weekend we'd need, Iowa Win AND MSU Loss @Indiana AND Purdue Loss VS illinois OR Ohio state win @Wisconsin

SCENARIO 2
MSU and PSU win tonight, then this weekend we'd need Iowa Win AND MSU Loss @Indiana AND Purdue Loss vs Illinois

Scenario 3
PURDUE AND OSU win tonight, then this weekend we'd need Iowa win AND PURDUE LOSS TO Illinois AND Ohio state wins @Wisconsin

Scenario 4
Purdue and PSU win tonight, then Iowa has no chance at 3 seed
 
WhitUp said:
Ok I think I figured out the scenarios for impacts on tonights games for Iowa to get the 3 seed. 4 possible outcomes to tonights games.(feel free to double check these I think I'm right)

Ideal scenario
MSU and OSU both win tonight, then this weekend we'd need, Iowa Win AND MSU Loss @Indiana AND Purdue Loss VS illinois OR Ohio state win @Wisconsin

SCENARIO 2
MSU and PSU win tonight, then this weekend we'd need Iowa Win AND MSU Loss @Indiana AND Purdue Loss vs Illinois

Scenario 3
PURDUE AND OSU win tonight, then this weekend we'd need Iowa win AND PURDUE LOSS TO Illinois AND Ohio state wins @Wisconsin

Scenario 4
Purdue and PSU win tonight, then Iowa has no chance at 3 seed
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That's what's so nice about the situation we put ourselves in. We litterally can't lose tonight.
 
PCHawk said:
That's what's so nice about the situation we put ourselves in. We litterally can't lose tonight.
Click to expand...

And by literally i mean figuratively because its obvious to everyone that we can't literally lose tonight since we don't play tonight.
 
PCHawk said:
That's what's so nice about the situation we put ourselves in. We litterally can't lose tonight.
Click to expand...

Purdue/MSU game is still almost a must win for MSU. We don't want to bank on Ohio state winning at Wisconsin
 
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