Iowa's 2012 Defense not as Bad as you thought???

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
When I look at college defensive statistics, the first two places I look are a team's scoring and rushing defensive rankings.

Iowa's rushing defense ranked 63rd in the nation last year giving up 162.08 yards, which was the most rushing yards allowed by an Iowa defense since 2000's 194.3 (Iowa gave up 156 in 2011). * Surprisingly, Iowa's scoring defense ranked 33rd in the nation allowing just 22.92 points per game.

That might be the single most important statistic in the game of football, along with what your offense is scoring. *So as challenging as last year's 4-8 season was to watch and is to remember, this could be the one thing that shines through as Iowa fans hope this year's defense is better than last year's crew.

I believe it can be but the one area that will tell that tale is rushing the passer.

My friend Kirk Haaland has a website called encyclonepedia.com. *He is a statistical enthusiast like me, with the difference being he knows how to crunch the numbers and I just know how to look at them. *Most of his commentary comes from an Iowa State angle but the data is there for us to cut up for our own Hawkeye purposes.

In his latest article on rushing totals and rushing defense, Kirk takes a new twist on old data and looks at rushing totals when removing sacks. *This means removing sacks allowed by the offense and reducing the rushing attempts from rushing totals where a sack and sack yardage was counted against a team and doing a similar exercise for the defense.

This, from his item:

"With sacks removed the Cyclones gave up 4.65 yards per carry which would chime in at 52nd*best in the NCAA.* That 21 spots jumped in the rankings for yard per carry defense when sacks are taken out is the 4th*largest in the country. Meaning the Cyclone defense was hurt the 4th*most by including sacks in the rushing yardage, statistically.*Coincidentally, the leader in that category on defense was Iowa. Their rush defense jumped from 62nd*best to 30th*best when you remove the sack data."

When you click on his link and scroll to the team ranking area, he has it sorted by biggest increases for the rush defenses and you see that Iowa jumped up 32 spots. *This makes sense as Iowa was 115th in all of college football in sacking the quarterback last year with just 13 sacks. *Here are the programs who had fewer sacks than Iowa:

Florida Atlantic
Kansas
New Mexico State
Eastern Michigan
Boston College
Texas State
Massachusetts

Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker was asked about the pass rush this past week at a press conference:

"I think there’s some guys that have some knack to get there. Carl Davis, Cooper as an inside guy can help you. I think Dominic outside can hit you on the edge. We might have to create some situations a little bit more to help them out, maybe add some guys to the rush a little bit to help them out. It’s hard to get there when you have five guys blocking four. We all understand that. My biggest thing is try not to give up big plays. I think the game is still about scoring and not giving up points. That’s the most important thing. I think for the last two years, we were 24, last year we were 23. That’s my main concern, is points, I think."

There is that pesky reminder; rushing stats and sack stats and the like really wash out in the end if your defense is doing a good job of keeping points off the board. When you are giving up just 23 per game in this day and age of football, you are on the right side of good as Iowa's scoring defense ranking will bear out. But lack of pressure on the quarterback was a problem last year, everyone knows it including Parker and it will be interesting to see what Iowa does to address it.

On the flip side, you need to score points and Iowa was one of the worst in the nation at doing that at 19.33 per game which was 111th out of 120 and 113 out of 124. Iowa was 100th in the nation in yards per carry at 3.65 with sacks included in the numbers. *When you take out sacks, Iowa's yards per carry jumps to 4.27 yards per carry, which is actually 101st in the nation in yards per carry less the sacks. *Either way you slice Iowa's rushing totals, the Hawkeyes struggled mightily in 2012 and a part of that is due to injuries along the line. *Part of that was due to Iowa's installation of a new system and my belief that it was probably too much of a hybrid of what Kirk Ferentz wanted to see incorporated into Greg Davis' system and my hope for this year is that Davis is allowed to do things his way so we can at least see if it works. *This isn't to let Davis off the hook; if Iowa doesn't throw the ball downfield more often this year, the running game will have no chance as the box will be too compressed.

If Iowa can avoid the injury bug on the offensive line and in the backfield, I believe they can put together a solid rushing attack. They have several and different options in the backfield, too. I just have a hard time believing that Iowa's offense could be as bad as it was last year, so they have nowhere to go but up.

On defense, I think the line is going to be more productive than last year's crew. I think Iowa will put more pressure on the quarterback and I think they are going to begin taking steps towards their destiny, which is much more positive in 2014 along the line. Darian Cooper, Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat will be the veterans on the inside this year and freshmen Jaleel Johnson and Faith Ekakitie will get a chance to play, too. Dominic Alvis and Drew Ott would seem to be your likely starting defensive ends. The defense is going to be better as a whole, too.

The question that remains is if this improvement on both sides of the ball will be significant enough for Iowa to win at least six games and qualify for a bowl bid and the more practices that come with it.
 
JD -

I'm done with the hype on Iowa's scoring defense.

Sure it's great in the numbers, but how much of that is due to the slow tempo, ball control offense?

Bottom line is last years football team was one of the worst I've seen. Think on this for a second. How bad was the B1G last year? And how bad did we look against one of the worst years for talent in the league?

We all know that there is talent on campus right now, but the fact of the matter is that we've all heard too much about what great talent developers this staff is. I have my own reservations about that accolade.

If they can't develop that talent this year into a 6+ win season and a 9+ win season next year, than the final chapter on the KF tenure has been written and it will just be a matter of when they close the book.
 
JD -

I'm done with the hype on Iowa's scoring defense.

Sure it's great in the numbers, but how much of that is due to the slow tempo, ball control offense?

Bottom line is last years football team was one of the worst I've seen. Think on this for a second. How bad was the B1G last year? And how bad did we look against one of the worst years for talent in the league?

We all know that there is talent on campus right now, but the fact of the matter is that we've all heard too much about what great talent developers this staff is. I have my own reservations about that accolade.

If they can't develop that talent this year into a 6+ win season and a 9+ win season next year, than the final chapter on the KF tenure has been written and it will just be a matter of when they close the book.

At the end of the day, the still allowed just 23 points per game and the offense was horrible on third down conversions and scoring points itself...which put the defense on the field quite a bit. To me it still comes down to an offensive failure, which has been the common theme of the Ferentz era. That wasn't a ball control offense, unless controlling the ball for three plays then punting is what you meant ;)
 
Of course our defensive stats aren't as bad as they seemed. Our whole strategy is based on killing the clock which helps defensive stats and hurts offensive stats. This has been posted a million times on here so I'm surprised people that spend time on here still show stats to try to show how good our defense is. Or in this case how not so terrible it is.
 
No, but if you think Iowa's defense was good last year, than you're looking at too many statistics.

It wasn't better than we thought. In fact, it was probably worse.

But, we all heard Kirk talk about how there was plenty of talent on campus to compete. I've heard all the hyperbole on what great talent developers they are. No more BS, time to prove it.
 
Never mind I was beat to the punch. But our offense running 3 plays probably takes more time off the clock then most offenses running 6 plays. Also our defense keeps the ball in front of them allowing them to slowly move the ball down the field which also kills clock. I would really like to see a,points per possession stat because that is truly all that matters.
 
At the end of the day, the still allowed just 23 points per game and the offense was horrible on third down conversions and scoring points itself...which put the defense on the field quite a bit. To me it still comes down to an offensive failure, which has been the common theme of the Ferentz era. That wasn't a ball control offense, unless controlling the ball for three plays then punting is what you meant ;)

Jon, thanks for the post. Please allow me to destroy your argument.

The hawks played 9 BCS level opponents in 2012. Of those 9, 4 were good teams: Penn State, NW, Michigan and Nebraska. The hawks gave up an average of 30.25 points a game to those 4 teams. And I was being nice too. Nebraska was not very good last year, where they only gave up 13 points.

In summary:

a) the hawks played four good teams last year. (if you can say Nebraska was good)

b) gave up an average of 30.25 points per game to those four good teams.

c) Got completely blown out against Penn State (gave up 38 points) and against Michigan (gave up 42 points). They would have given up many more points if the opposing coaches weren't kind.

d) It's absolutely depressing to think how bad it would have been if they'd had to play the big ten's by far and away best team.

e) Your argument does hold some water if you are talking about when Iowa plays bad teams. Then yeah, the defense isn't that bad.

FreedComanche
 
For what is is worth Iowa had solid rankings in three categories that generally spell success- points per yard (T. 26 with S. Carolina), points per play (38), and red zone %/ TDs and FGs (T. 27 w/ N. Mexico @ 77.27%) but were not close to elite in any of those categories and those stats can be flawed by several factors. Football doesn't have a ton of great comparison stats like basketball's tempo free stuff, but the closest thing to me is Football outsider's FEI rankings which take into account your opponents, eliminates clock killing drives and possessions of games that are out of hand. Iowa ranked 63 in this category last season which is basically just past 50%. Only 6 teams had winning records that ranked below Iowa and they had two things in common- non BCS leagues and dynamic offenses- they were built to outscore opponents.

Iowa had similar ranks in the first three categories in the above paragraphs for most of Norm's tenure, but the FEI rankings were were 44 for 2011, 24 for 2010, 2 in 2009 ( the most loaded defense talent-wise likely ever for Iowa), and 6 in 2008 which had many of the same key players as the 2009 season.
 
Keep in mind a number of games we were down and other teams sat on the ball because they were confident we couldn't score. So the scoing stat is somewhat misleading.
 
The problem with the defense has always been hold the offense on first and second down and then allow a 10 yard pass on third down. Until this changes we will not be a good defense.
 
I just hope the offense is more dynamic. I don't want to see more 'delay of game' penalties during our hurry-up!!!!!!
 
Never mind I was beat to the punch. But our offense running 3 plays probably takes more time off the clock then most offenses running 6 plays. Also our defense keeps the ball in front of them allowing them to slowly move the ball down the field which also kills clock. I would really like to see a,points per possession stat because that is truly all that matters.

Agreed, Iowa's "PPG" stat is similar to looking at Iowa's defensive stats in hoops when Lick was our coach.. People always raved about how great Lick's teams were defensively because they only gave up X number of points per game, but that was largely due to a matter of pace. If you looked at the FG% allowed, Iowa was still at or near the bottom of the conference, IIRC. Iowa's PPG stat only looked good because the games were played at a pace to only score in the 50's or 60's.

The same thing needs to be taken into account with the football team's D - the "bend don't break" style of D doesn't allow big plays, and forces teams to dink and dunk their way down the field, which of course takes time off the clock, thus resulting in fewer possessions and less opportunities to score. If you adjust for pace of game, or like PC said, "points per possession", I would be curious to see where Iowa's defense ranked.
 
I just hope the offense is more dynamic. I don't want to see more 'delay of game' penalties during our hurry-up!!!!!!

That was a classic head-scratcher to be sure. And yes, I do agree with Jon that the offense is the #1 issue. Has been for many years. I just am not sure that the defense is half as good as it used to be, just strictly looking at PPG allowed.
 
One, you are mining the depths of statistics to rationalize anything about Iowa's season last year.

Two, eliminating sacks as a measure of the effective of a rush defense is misleading, because, if the other team knows you're not going to harass their quarterback, it opens up a lot of their offense.

Three, if you know your opponent can't score points, it takes the pressure off of you to score as many points to win.

Four, the only statistic that matter is 8 losses.
 
Hey guys,

I do keep a points per possession stat plus a bunch of other stuff that I don't think is readily available found here.

Football Stats |

The scoring pages have the points per possession numbers you're after.
 
JD -

I'm done with the hype on Iowa's scoring defense.

Sure it's great in the numbers, but how much of that is due to the slow tempo, ball control offense?

Bottom line is last years football team was one of the worst I've seen. Think on this for a second. How bad was the B1G last year? And how bad did we look against one of the worst years for talent in the league?

We all know that there is talent on campus right now, but the fact of the matter is that we've all heard too much about what great talent developers this staff is. I have my own reservations about that accolade.

If they can't develop that talent this year into a 6+ win season and a 9+ win season next year, than the final chapter on the KF tenure has been written and it will just be a matter of when they close the book.

9+ win seasons is a high goal...and will always be rare for the hawks...if our entire football history is any indicator. 7-8 is the barometer for good seasons. I agree with your last paragraph otherwise.
 
Offense was the reason for the crappy season last year. Defense was adequate to slightly above average...even with the inexperience.

Our offense didn't even necessarily need to score many more points last year they simply needed to extend drives longer and flip filed position...
 
The problem with the defense has always been hold the offense on first and second down and then allow a 10 yard pass on third down. Until this changes we will not be a good defense.

No one is arguing that Iowa was good in 2012, defense included. But to make a statement like "the problem with this defense has always been.....and then allow a 10-yard pass on third down" is just silly.

In 2008 Iowa was 5th in the country in scoring defense at 13 ppg.
In 2009 Iowa was 8th in the country at scoring defense at 15 ppg.
In 2007 Iowa was 12th in scoring defense at 18.8 ppg
In 2004 Iowa was 16th in scoring defense at 17.6 ppg
In 2005 Iowa was 20th in scoring defense at 20 ppg
In 2003 Iowa was 7th in scoring defense at 16.2 ppg
In 2010 Iowa was 7th in scoring defense at 17 ppg

Yes, Iowa's defensive point per game numbers have benefited from an offensive style that helps limit the number of plays run in a game, etc. But finishing in the top 20 in scoring defense is getting it done, period. That's 7 times in the last 10 seasons the defense has been very good.

Can Iowa's defense continue anything close to that performance without Norm Parker? That's a question yet to be answered.
 

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