IowaLawWasRight
Well-Known Member
After a seemingly endless summer, football season is finally in sight. The off-season has led to much discussion but very little concrete information from the coaching staff as to how good the 2018 squad will be. IowaLaw's pre-season observations are as follows:
1. Attrition Is Going To Sting More Than We Think - while it's fun to read media reports about how many true freshmen are climbing the ranks and are poised to make the two deeps, especially on defense, I think it's important to remember Ferentz's mantra every time he's questioned about why his recruiting classes consistently finish in the bottom half/third of the Big 10 (Rivals ranked this year's true freshmen class 8th in the Big 10)..."we are a developmental program." We've been hearing that for 20 years under Kirk. Shockingly, this year's two deeps have just 8 seniors on it (and one of them is a walkon transfer and one is a 2nd team fullback).
Take a look at the 20 recruits who committed to Iowa's 59th ranked 2014 recruiting class, this year's "Doyalized" seniors, and you won't recognize half of them because they aren't on the team. When you look at position groups, we have two freshmen backup QBs, not because they are great, but because 2 older QBs have left. We have three soph RBs competing to start because two older guys left the program. Six DBs have left with eligibility left, including my boy Brandon Snyder, so it's no wonder true freshmen DBs are getting buzz before they are ready. Unless the freshmen are 5 star can't miss prospects, having a bunch of freshmen from the 8th best recruiting class in the conference get reps does not bode well for a developmental program.
2. WR Recruiting Remains Subpar - In 2016, CJ had to endure perhaps the worst WR squad in Power 5 history, led by a grey shirt from a Dakota named Vandy. In 2017, the staff "randyed around" in WR recruiting again and were led by a white, small-town walk-on named Easley. In 2018, the only new face to improve our weak link position group and crack the 2 deeps is another white, small town walk-on, this time named Groenewig. Apparently Groenewig beat out all 85 scholarship recruits to win the starting punt returner spot. What does that say about the talent level on this team? Attrition and recruiting misses are painful for a developmental team (for example, Jerminic Smith, Emanual Ogwu, and Adrian Falconer were all part of the 2015 WR class and should all be pushing for playing time).
Maybe Brandon Smith will live up to the hype he received last year, despite hauling in just 3 catches all year for an average of 3 yards. True freshmen Tyrone Tracy and Nico Rigaini are getting good reviews. Perhaps one will jump in and be a difference maker. My guess is they are a few years away from significant playing time, and this team is a few years away from having WRs who would start on any other Big 10 squad. That's on the coaches poor recruiting and retention.
3. DL Is Stacked - When was the last time we had a guy as good as Epenesa as a second teamer on the DL? There were years in the past where a guy liike Epenesa would have been the DL's top player and play every down. That shows that this DL is both talented and deep, which means more run stuffing and more sacks (we had 28 last year and I expect more like 38 this year). Nelson, Lattimore, Nelson, A.J., Hesse, Reiff, and Brinks are as tall, rangy, and athletic of a group as we've had on the DL. They lack the weight that most DLs have, but they will be a force that dominates lesser opponents this year.
4. Stanley Is Solid, But Highly Overrated - I have been reading everywhere that Stanley is a "lock" to leave Iowa after his junior season as an NFL first round pick. Why? First off, how many Iowa QBs in history have left early, let alone been 1st round draft picks? None in my lifetime. Next, Stanley was a mediocre QB on a mediocre team last year, as the coaches/media did think enough of him to vote him 1st team, 2nd team, 3rd team, or even honorable mention All Big 10. Where did this super star hype come from? If Stanley is going to be an NFL caliber leader, he needs to lose the pumpkin pie kindergarten buzz hair cut, and take command of this team. I don't know how relatable a 21 year old college junior at a Big 10 school is to his teammates when he admits that in 3 years on campus, he's never once been out in downtown Iowa City, not even for dinner.
On the plus side, Stanley threw for 26 TDs last year, which is a huge number at Iowa. However, only a hand full of those throws were to WRs down the field. Nate's stats were bolstered by a once a decade RB who took passed caught in the back field to the house, and two dominant TEs who caused tremendous mismatches. Being tall and having an arm are great, but Stanley has yet to prove he can connect on deep balls or call an audible that isn't "run to the left," and his short range 55% completion percentage put him near the bottom of Big 10 in accuracy. My gut tells me Nate will have a solid year (perhaps honorable mention all conference), win us some games, and be back for his senior year.
5. Soft Schedules Make Good Coaches Look Great. The Hawks could go 10-2 this year and not beat a ranked or even decent opponent all year. The two ranked opponents have to come to Kinnick, where anything can happen. The Big 10 West is in the bottom 1/5 of Power 5 divisions, which will give a slightly above average Hawkeye team a chance to shine. I have heard a lot of 7-5 predictions thus far, but you don't have to be a homer to think that the Hawks can win 9 games this year, due to the schedule. For that reason, I'm predicting 9-3, with a loss to Nebraska at the end of the season. Kirk's agent will be sure to leverage the schedule for another raise, circa 2015.
1. Attrition Is Going To Sting More Than We Think - while it's fun to read media reports about how many true freshmen are climbing the ranks and are poised to make the two deeps, especially on defense, I think it's important to remember Ferentz's mantra every time he's questioned about why his recruiting classes consistently finish in the bottom half/third of the Big 10 (Rivals ranked this year's true freshmen class 8th in the Big 10)..."we are a developmental program." We've been hearing that for 20 years under Kirk. Shockingly, this year's two deeps have just 8 seniors on it (and one of them is a walkon transfer and one is a 2nd team fullback).
Take a look at the 20 recruits who committed to Iowa's 59th ranked 2014 recruiting class, this year's "Doyalized" seniors, and you won't recognize half of them because they aren't on the team. When you look at position groups, we have two freshmen backup QBs, not because they are great, but because 2 older QBs have left. We have three soph RBs competing to start because two older guys left the program. Six DBs have left with eligibility left, including my boy Brandon Snyder, so it's no wonder true freshmen DBs are getting buzz before they are ready. Unless the freshmen are 5 star can't miss prospects, having a bunch of freshmen from the 8th best recruiting class in the conference get reps does not bode well for a developmental program.
2. WR Recruiting Remains Subpar - In 2016, CJ had to endure perhaps the worst WR squad in Power 5 history, led by a grey shirt from a Dakota named Vandy. In 2017, the staff "randyed around" in WR recruiting again and were led by a white, small-town walk-on named Easley. In 2018, the only new face to improve our weak link position group and crack the 2 deeps is another white, small town walk-on, this time named Groenewig. Apparently Groenewig beat out all 85 scholarship recruits to win the starting punt returner spot. What does that say about the talent level on this team? Attrition and recruiting misses are painful for a developmental team (for example, Jerminic Smith, Emanual Ogwu, and Adrian Falconer were all part of the 2015 WR class and should all be pushing for playing time).
Maybe Brandon Smith will live up to the hype he received last year, despite hauling in just 3 catches all year for an average of 3 yards. True freshmen Tyrone Tracy and Nico Rigaini are getting good reviews. Perhaps one will jump in and be a difference maker. My guess is they are a few years away from significant playing time, and this team is a few years away from having WRs who would start on any other Big 10 squad. That's on the coaches poor recruiting and retention.
3. DL Is Stacked - When was the last time we had a guy as good as Epenesa as a second teamer on the DL? There were years in the past where a guy liike Epenesa would have been the DL's top player and play every down. That shows that this DL is both talented and deep, which means more run stuffing and more sacks (we had 28 last year and I expect more like 38 this year). Nelson, Lattimore, Nelson, A.J., Hesse, Reiff, and Brinks are as tall, rangy, and athletic of a group as we've had on the DL. They lack the weight that most DLs have, but they will be a force that dominates lesser opponents this year.
4. Stanley Is Solid, But Highly Overrated - I have been reading everywhere that Stanley is a "lock" to leave Iowa after his junior season as an NFL first round pick. Why? First off, how many Iowa QBs in history have left early, let alone been 1st round draft picks? None in my lifetime. Next, Stanley was a mediocre QB on a mediocre team last year, as the coaches/media did think enough of him to vote him 1st team, 2nd team, 3rd team, or even honorable mention All Big 10. Where did this super star hype come from? If Stanley is going to be an NFL caliber leader, he needs to lose the pumpkin pie kindergarten buzz hair cut, and take command of this team. I don't know how relatable a 21 year old college junior at a Big 10 school is to his teammates when he admits that in 3 years on campus, he's never once been out in downtown Iowa City, not even for dinner.
On the plus side, Stanley threw for 26 TDs last year, which is a huge number at Iowa. However, only a hand full of those throws were to WRs down the field. Nate's stats were bolstered by a once a decade RB who took passed caught in the back field to the house, and two dominant TEs who caused tremendous mismatches. Being tall and having an arm are great, but Stanley has yet to prove he can connect on deep balls or call an audible that isn't "run to the left," and his short range 55% completion percentage put him near the bottom of Big 10 in accuracy. My gut tells me Nate will have a solid year (perhaps honorable mention all conference), win us some games, and be back for his senior year.
5. Soft Schedules Make Good Coaches Look Great. The Hawks could go 10-2 this year and not beat a ranked or even decent opponent all year. The two ranked opponents have to come to Kinnick, where anything can happen. The Big 10 West is in the bottom 1/5 of Power 5 divisions, which will give a slightly above average Hawkeye team a chance to shine. I have heard a lot of 7-5 predictions thus far, but you don't have to be a homer to think that the Hawks can win 9 games this year, due to the schedule. For that reason, I'm predicting 9-3, with a loss to Nebraska at the end of the season. Kirk's agent will be sure to leverage the schedule for another raise, circa 2015.
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