Iowa was a few plays away from being 9-3 Last season...seriously

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
The 2012 Iowa football season will not likely be remembered for much other than the team went 4-8 and missed bowl eligibility for the first time since 2000. However, that team was a few plays away from being 9-3. They were also a few plays way from being 2-10.


Iowa v NIU: Iowa won this game 18-17 on a late touchdown by Damon Bullock. It was a gutsy call on third and and long, handing the ball off to Bullock on 3rd and 9 and he scampered in for the 23 yard score. Iowa was down 17-12 at that point, which was under three minutes to play in the game. That was one of their four wins which could have easily been a loss.


Iowa State at Iowa: Iowa lost this game 9-6. It was the first time they lost a game where their opponent scored less than 10 points in a long, long, long time. Like going back to 1980 when they lost 5-3 against Arizona. It was a brutal game offensively as neither team's defense turned out to be all that great. This is a game Iowa could have won.


Central Michigan at Iowa: One of the worst losses of the Ferentz era, Iowa allowed CMU to score nine points in the last 45 seconds, including the recovery of an onside kick late to set up a game winning 47-yard field goal. Iowa should have won this game, but certainly didn't deserve to.


Iowa at Michigan State: The Hawkeyes won 19-16 in 2OT. The only offense that looked as bad as Iowa's from the Big Ten last year might have been Michigan State's, however the Spartans had a really good defense to go along with it. That fact made this is a pretty solid win for Iowa, but it obviously could have gone the other way, too.


Iowa at Indiana: Iowa lost 24-21 after leading 14-0 midway through the first quarter as well as taking the lead in the fourth quarter of the game.


Purdue at Iowa: The Boilermakers hit a 46-yard field goal as time expired to beat Iowa 27-24. With just over 25 seconds remaining and the game tied at 21, Iowa completed a one-yard pass to Zach Derby on 4th down. The problem was it was a 4th and 3 situation (I am almost laughing at that right now, remembering how many passing attempts short of the first down marker we saw last year). Purdue took over on downs with just :21 seconds to play and the ball at their own 34...which of course was enough time to see one-legged Robert Marve run for 17 yards on first down, call timeout with :10 seconds to play, then complete a 20 yard pass, call timeout with :03 seconds to play, and kick the game winner.


Iowa at Nebraska: Having been burned by an aggressive 4th and 1 decision the week before, Kirk Ferentz opted to punt the ball on 4th and 13 at the Nebraska 30 yard with just under four minutes to play in the 4th quarter and Iowa leading 7-3...because yeah, there weren't any plays designed to gain more than 13 yards last year. OK, I am being facetious, but then again they completed their first 20+ yard pass to CJF in this, the final game of the season and he only had two such targets all year. Iowa lost this game 13-7. Oh by the way; Iowa's punt sailed into the endzone for a touchback for a net gain of 11 yards of field position.


That's a total of seven games decided by six points or less. Iowa was 2-5 in those games. Had they gone 7-0 in those games, they would have finished the season with a record of 9-3. If they would have gone 4-3 in those games, they would have been 6-6 and in a bowl game getting 15 more practices in December. In either of those instances, the outlook heading into this season would be a bit different. Had Iowa gone 9-3, the outlook would a lot different.


But they went 4-8 last year with the worst offense of the Ferentz era and one of the most painful Iowa offenses to watch of any season in my lifetime of watching the Hawkeyes, which dates back to 1981.


While that is not a positive thing to recall, I still circle back around to this notion I shared at the end of last year...the Hawkeyes could have won every one of those losses I listed above while having the worst offense of the last 30 years of Iowa football and a defense that simply will not be remembered.


Should we be more optimistic heading into this year? Perhaps, but then again that schedule might have been the most manageable for Iowa in the last 30 years, too. This year's slate is much tougher but it gets Charmin soft again in 2014.


This one will definitely come down to whether or not your glass is half full or half empty. I am a lifelong card carrying member of the half full club, but even I am struggling to buy what this collection of numbers can point to. In the end, as Kirk Ferentz would say (and has), this team got what it deserved.


What say you?
 
Meh, I don't really like playing the what if game in regards to wins and losses.

The 2012 Hawks were a 4-8 football team and that's how they will be remembered.

Winning more games last year wouldn't have done anything to my optimism righht now. I'm always optimistic, probably too much so, this time of year.
 
You can play this game each year really. At the end of the day, you are what your record says you are. I think what it also shows is just how fine of line it is. When KF talks about execution (for both coaches and players) that is because 2-4 plays will decide close games. 2009 we made all the plays, huge plays, and the record reflected that. Since then we haven't been making those plays....
 
The 2012 team was a young inexperienced team and they got pushed around on the field. This year they are larger and more experienced. Iowa will shock a team or two that takes them for granted. Iowa may only win six games this year, but they will be much more competitive.
 
You can play this game each year really. At the end of the day, you are what your record says you are. I think what it also shows is just how fine of line it is. When KF talks about execution (for both coaches and players) that is because 2-4 plays will decide close games. 2009 we made all the plays, huge plays, and the record reflected that. Since then we haven't been making those plays....

I think you should look back at the what-if game because it shows a level of potential.

^^ this is a good view. With all the 3 star recruits and lack of huge play makers Iowa has a fine line to walk.

Coaching and scheming at a high level are needed to win and getting the players in the best situation to win and having them perform is of utmost importance.

There has been something lacking overall in the last few years BUT this what-if shows the potential is there.
 
Most of the players are back so they will learn from their experience. Cmu was a fluke anyways that rule needs to change. There is no way that a team should benefit from their own penalty.
 
What say I? That the fact that we "almost beat" Central Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, and ISU does not make me feel any better about last season or where this program is. A good team would not have been in position to lose those games in the first place. Iowa wasn't good enough to put those teams away, and many of the same problems we've seen year after year reared their ugly heads in those games and cost Iowa those games. Iowa simply was not a good team, and losing those games was no accident. You are what your record says you are - and that goes for 2004 and 2009 where you saw 10+ win teams winning close games. That knife cuts both ways. At the end of the day, it comes down to wins and losses.
 
Not much of a reader, are ya?

It's called selective reading. He read what he wanted to read, and was looking for a reason to call Jon out as a homer when in reality he was being pretty straightforward.

I agree with Dean's post. Most people who witnessed last season realize they weren't very far off from winning more games or losing more games. Which is exactly why Ferentz constantly mentions execution. The margin for error at Iowa regarding wins and losses has always been very thin. The Hawkeyes aren't in a situation where they can stock elite recruits, run a fancy offense, and blow people out of the water. That's just not going to happen. It's a developmental program that heavily depends on doing what they do better than anyone else to the point that it can't be stopped because the players execute their assignments so well. That's why execution is so important because the opponent usually knows what's coming at them.

With that said, the coaches can still break some tendencies and mix things up a little. They have to figure out a way to put defenses back on their toes. This has not been a strong suit of KF to put it mildly.
 
"This one will definitely come down to whether or not your glass is half full or half empty. I am a lifelong card carrying member of the half full club, but even I am struggling to buy what this collection of numbers can point to...."

This about sums up my feeling on the Hawkeye football team perfectly. I have always had hope, even in the most dire circumstances.

Playing the Hurricanes to open the season? Hawks have a chance...

Going into the Shoe with a freshman QB? Hawks have a chance...

Down 14 with 2 minutes to play? Hawks have a chance...

This season, pessimism has set in and I do not like it one bit. I will still SAY that Hawks have a chance to start out 5-0, but I don't believe it in my heart nearly as much as I have in years past. Scratch that, decades past.
 
With the schedule last season, I feel that if we had the same talent as 2012, but the coaching staff from 5 years ago, they would have easily been 9-3. I am optimistic that this year will have guys step up, but I have extreme doubts in the guys that are leading the offense and defense. I think that GD will be the fall of KF. I guess we will see this year if it was Vandy or GD.
 
With that said, the coaches can still break some tendencies and mix things up a little. They have to figure out a way to put defenses back on their toes. This has not been a strong suit of KF to put it mildly.

^^ this is important. Iowa needs to start out-scheming other teams at least more than they have in the past under KF.

If other teams have wide open offenses that can score 40 points a game and if Iowa can hold them to 30 points then the hawk offense needs to scheme up to score more, and at least move the ball to give the defense some rest and some field position.

I agree that Iowa's KF offense can be pretty un-imaginative when compared to hayden and bill snyder.

You would think when Iowa has a super strong defense KF would take more chances on offense but that is not always the case which really shows his conservative nature. I sure hope GDavis shows some ability to get people in open space and finds a QB who can run the show.
 
Sweet! Its a good thing we play the exact same teams this year with no changes to players or coaches and the games will unfold in the exact same manner EXCEPT for the few key plays mentioned here which we shall adjust to and claim victory.

Gonna be a good year boys and girls!
 
It's a pretty sad state of affairs when the "games we could have won" list includes ISU, Indiana, Purdue and Central Michigan and that the program has fallen so far bince the introduction of Greg Davis as OC that Northwestern wasn't even in the list of "games we could have won." I mean, at least we used to be competitive with Northwestern.
 
After having a winter to think about Iowa's offense, It was a mixture of oil and water in the coaching staff.The receivers coach and the O.C. had totally different ideas of what the receivers should be. Changes were made here and elsewhere to rectify these problems. One can only hope it was for the better.
 
interesting read. I had almost forgotten about all those close losses. really makes me mad all over again. you could say we were really 5-7 plays away from being 9-3 and visa versa.

i honestly want to know what went thru GD head when calling a 1 yd out pass on 4and3? idiot.
 
interesting read. I had almost forgotten about all those close losses. really makes me mad all over again. you could say we were really 5-7 plays away from being 9-3 and visa versa.

i honestly want to know what went thru GD head when calling a 1 yd out pass on 4and3? idiot.

It was the deepest pass he had in the playbook.
 
Its true you are what your record say you are. Which tells me we were a team that didnt execute in close games. That is fixable. We really dont know what GD called when we ran a one yard route when we needed three. There were a lot of problems on that team. Its wasnt all GD and it wasnt all JV. Wait and see
 

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