Iowa v Wisconsin Prediction Thread

Iowa 21-3 at half with 3 TE sets

Iowa loses 31-24 after after switching to 3Wr sets in the 2nd half
 
So...we've come a long way as a team and as fans. Seems like 2 weeks ago, we were saying that this Saturday is "rake the yard day" and now seems like nobdy it talking in those terms. People are prepared to sit down and watch win or lose.
 
1st half Weisman runs for 300 yds, Rudock is 1 for 1, a screen to Powell for a 60 yd TD, Iowa leads 38-0 at the half. Second half, offense spreads out with 5 WR, Weisman carries once for a loss of 2 and is benched for the rest of the game, Rudock completes 4 passes for a total of 9 yards, we get 0 first downs, conservative prevent defense consistently gives up easy 20 yd gains by Wisconsin, Iowa wins 44-41 in OT when JR finally has a tight end to throw to.

Massive exaggeration aside: the Big Ten's third best scoring defense matches up with its fourth best scoring offense, meanwhile the Big Ten's second best scoring defense dominates its 11th best scoring offense. It's looking like 27-13 in favor of that red team.
 
I think this game will come down to if the defense can make a big stop on third down late in the game, and if the offense can sustain drives in the second half.

Hawks - 24
Wisconsin - 21
 
I wanted to see how closely Wisky matches up against Sparty. So I went to this site and ran a comparison.

MyTeamsBetter - College Football Team Comparison




Michigan State
Spartans


VS

Wisconsin
Badgers


(7-1, 4-0 Big Ten)


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Key StatsAll StatsOffenseDefenseSpecial Teams
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All OpponentsCommon OpponentsHome vs AwayAway vs HomeHome vs HomeAway vs AwayNeutral vs Neutral
(5-2, 3-1 Big Ten)


Compare SchedulesMichigan StateWisconsin
Stat (Avg Per Game)AverageFBS Rank
AverageFBS Rank
Winner
Scoring Margin+17.6316+24.007Wisc
Total Offense377.3889513.5712Wisc
Total Defense215.631285.007MSU
Turnover Margin+0.7520+0.2947MSU
Time of Possession34:48233:358MSU
Total Offensive Plays73.754868.7183MSU
Total Defensive Plays60.75664.7115MSU
Yards Per Play5.081007.506Wisc
Opponent Yards Per Play3.5314.266MSU
Pass Yards Per Att5.881128.3426Wisc
Pass Completion Pct58.10%7963.20%40Wisc
Passing TDs1.63601.8648Wisc
Opponent Pass Yards Per Att4.6915.9111MSU
Opponent Pass Completion Pct46.40%455.10%28MSU
Opponent Pass TDs1.00120.867Wisc
Rush Yards Per Att4.57516.951Wisc
Rush TDs1.50813.434Wisc
Opponent Rush Yards Per Att2.0812.804MSU
Opponent Rush TDs0.5051.0027MSU
Total First Downs22.135722.4351Wisc
Third Down Conv Pct48.40%2647.70%29MSU
Opponent Third Down Conv Pct27.50%330.40%9MSU
Penalty Yards65.1311145.5747Wisc
Kick Off Return Yards Per Att17.3712025.8613Wisc
Opponent Kick Off Return Yards Per Att20.625320.7356MSU
Punt Return Yards Per Att8.88527.0079MSU
Opponent Punt Return Yards Per Att8.52716.8647Wisc
Punting Yards Per Att43.072540.3983MSU
Field Goal Pct76.70%5055.00%104MSU
Opponent Win Pct (SOS)44.78%9348.39%73Wisc
Number of StatsStats WonFBS Avg Rank
Stats WonFBS Avg Rank
*Winner (Confidence)
2916431331Wisc (51.78%)
 
So...we've come a long way as a team and as fans. Seems like 2 weeks ago, we were saying that this Saturday is "rake the yard day" and now seems like nobdy it talking in those terms. People are prepared to sit down and watch win or lose.

Actually, I am raking tomorrow. I have to get it done, so I'll watch on tape. As to a prediction: Iowa is next to last in the Bigten in scoring and we average around 17 PPG in league play. I think we hit that with a late score. Wisconsin, on the other hand has a very good offense with multiple playmakers. Thae last time we played a team like that, they didn't punt. I think they get 31 and we hit our average.
 
I don't like this match up at all. I don't think we'll stop them. It will be another game where they hold onto the ball and get first down after first down. We lose 30-14.
 
We hang tight through the middle of the 3rd quarter, but then things start to get away as our defense tires. Wisconsin plunges in for a late rushing TD to put the nail in our coffin. Wisconsin 31 - Iowa 17.
 
I'm going 24-28 and am not sure which team actually comes out on top. I think Mr. Gordon is going to meet Mr. King frequently but any coaching staff w/ a pulse has got to take advantage of our safeties. Figure Air Aberderis when the ground game isn't as productive as the Badgers are used to.

There is no margin for error by the Hawkeyes. They have to get in Stave's face often. I do see the Hawks getting burned on the run out of play action on 3rd downs more than once. They have got to be ready to bring the run blitz.

I do see ball control in the Hawk's favor. I expect UW to score quickly when they have the ball about 70% of the time but this will keep their D on the field and we will see them wear down late. A turnover late by the Badgers may be the ticket to a Hawkeye victory.

The big IF is will the O actually show up in the 2nd half? Will a tired Badger D be unable to stop a power running attack if it shows up late w/ the game on the line?
 
I think Rudock takes care of business with the pass and the run.....he will light up their secondary and we win it going away.....short passes that turn into long plays.........Hell, you gotta dream big, eh?? 27-17 Hawks...
 
Iowa has won 6 of the last 9 vs. Wisconsin. Iowa fans like to think that any disparity like that in our opponents favor will surely continue, so I guess it means Iowa will continue to hold the upper hand against Wisky.

Iowa 27
Wisky 23

Should be 7 of 9. They were beaten before THE FAKE PUNT that shocked the Hawkeye World.....

:rolleyes:
 
i really think there are probably only two ways this goes down. iowa hangs on long enough to pull the upset, or wisky wins easily. i'm hoping for the former, but not going to hold my breath.

Wisconsin 31 - Iowa 13

unless something drastic changes (meaning some type of Iowa offense shows up for the 2nd half) i'm guessing the iowa D just is worn out by the 4th quarter. would really like to see the Hawks stick it to Gordon, but i'm thinking he'll probably have a big day on the outside. sure hope not.


well, unfortunately i was pretty damn close. nailed the bolded part too.
 

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