Iowa Statistical Analysis Through Seven Games

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Here are some Iowa basketball statistics of note through seven games of Big Ten play. The rankings and stats are from Big Ten conference games only, unless otherwise noted.

FREE THROWS: Iowa has attempted 160 free throws in seven games, far and away the most in the league. Indiana is next with 131. Purdue has attempted 127 in six games, which still puts Iowa's 22.8 attempts per game at the top of the league. The downside here is that Iowa is only making 66.9% of their free throws. 70% should be the low end percentage a team should make. If Iowa were at that number, it would equate to five more total points scored in Big Ten play, so Iowa's record is about what it should be given how they have played and how close the games have been where they lost. Yes, they lost by three at home against Purdue, but hit 21 of 29 free throws in that game, nearly 73%. Iowa has made 107 free throws while their opponents have attempted 112.

TREY ATTEMPTS: Iowa's opponents have hoisted 149 three-point shots against the Hawks, which is the highest mark in the league. Penn State is next with 144 against. Teams are making just 28.2% of their threes against Iowa and 40.3% of their three's against Penn State. I really can't say with certainty that Iowa is getting more hands in faces or contesting more of these shots than anyone else. Maybe it's a tempo thing; Iowa forces teams to play faster on defense and perhaps that is taking the legs out of their opponents which will have an effect on your shooting. I guess it could be pure chance or coincidence that teams are shooting the three poorly against Iowa, but the more games Iowa plays with similar results, that is less likely to be the case.

On the flip side, Iowa is dead last in the Big Ten in three-pointers made per game with 3.7. The next lowest number is Minnesota at 5.3. That is an enormous gap, but Iowa is not yet a team with numerous long distance shooters. It's encouraging to see Zach McCabe come alive from range and his three attempts looked so pure against Purdue. Aaron White has this in his game and will refine it. Josh Oglesby is primarily a long-distance threat but needs to add more to his game to keep teams honest. Mike Gesell will add another three-point presence next year, but the Hawks will lose Matt Gatens. I continue to like the fact that Iowa realizes their weakness here and sticks to their strength; if you are going to be poor from the three-point arc you need to get to the free throw line.

BLOCKS: Iowa is not a 'big team' per se, so it is surprising to see the Hawks 4th in the league in blocks per game. While they are not overly tall, they have some long defenders and I expect Iowa to improve on this statistic in the coming years. In fact, over the next two seasons, I think Iowa could be #1 in this stat. Aaron White and Devyn Marble present unique defensive matchups with their length, and they are second and third on the team in blocks this season. I believe Melsahn Basabe will return to a style of play next year that was more similar to his freshman year. I think the weight gain experiment didn't go well for him and he is more effective carrying less mass. He leads Iowa in blocks on the season as a whole, but White leads Iowa in blocks in Big Ten play and is currently 7th in the league. Bring in 7-footer Adam Woodbury next season, along with more minutes for Gabe Olaseni and more beef in Kyle Meyer and the Hawks should be a factor in this area for years to come.

OFFENSIVE GLASS: I find it a bit odd that Penn State leads the Big Ten in offensive rebounds per game and Iowa is 3rd. Ohio State is second, which you would expect with their size, but Iowa and Penn State are not overly big teams. However, Iowa is 6th in offensive rebounding percentage. That is arrived at taking your offensive rebounds and dividing by the number of defensive rebounds your opponents haul in. This balances out the possibility that you are getting a lot of offensive rebounds, but that your opponent is also taking a higher number of shot attempts. Penn State drops to third in this category with Michigan State first and Ohio State second, which is exactly what you would expect to see.

SCHEDULE: Michigan finds themselves 5-2 in Big Ten play, which is good for first place. Their two losses have come on the road against Indiana and Iowa. They are the only team in the league to have had five home games thus far, out of seven total. The payback is coming as they have just four home games remaining to go along with seven road games. Nebraska, Penn State and Wisconsin have played four home games, with the rest of the league having just three home games to date.

Below is a list of Iowa plays and their statistical ranking in the Big Ten for the stated category:

SCORING: Matt Gatens (21), Devyn Marble (23) and Aaron White (25)
REBOUNDING: Gatens (12)
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING: McCabe (8)
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING: Gatens (12)
FG %: White (10) and McCabe (13)
ASSISTS: Bryce Cartwright (6) and Marble (14)
FT%: Gatens (13) Matt has missed five three throws so far. He missed seven in 18 B1G games last year
STEALS: Gatens (7)
BLOCKS: White (7) an Basabe (15)
ASSIST to TURNOVER: Cartwright (7)

IOWA ONLY BIG TEN STATS

Zach McCabe has been playing some solid basketball during the Big Ten season. There have been times where he has flashed early only to be saddled with foul trouble, but it has been obvious that he is taking his game to a new level. He is presently 4th on the team in scoring with an average of 9.6 points per game along with 4.1 rebounds per game just just 24 minutes per game. As we look ahead to next year, you'd hope he can stretch his minutes to around 30 per game if he can learn to stay out of foul trouble. If he can do that, you are looking at a 12/6 player. McCabe leads Iowa with 25 fouls in seven games, with Aaron White nearest to him with 14.

Aaron White is Iowa's third leading scorer (10.6) and second leading rebounder (4.6) and has played about as well as you could have hoped for. After watching him play in one Prime Time League game this summer, I wrote the following in June:

Here is the word that kept coming into my mind as I watched him play: nuisance. He is a nuisance and a pest…if you are the opponent. Why? Because he rarely stops moving, even in summer league…He was continually in motion, mostly without the ball. When he got the ball, no matter where he was, his first instinct was to pivot and face the basket...When I watched his videos this winter and spring, I kept thinking ‘poor man’s Robbie Hummel’, mostly because he doesn’t have the outside shooting prowess Hummel showed at that age. However, Hummel is real good without the basketball, even a decent screener for someone that is such a good shooter.

That’s what I see in White. I think he has a chance to be a real key contributor during his career. He can fill some minutes and needs next year (11-12), but I don’t think he will come into his own until late in his sophomore season or at the start of his junior season…he needs to add some bulk for the Big Ten game....One more name popped into my head when I watched his constant motion; Ryan Bowen. Bowen really blossomed his junior year after being mostly an afterthought his first two seasons…White is more talented than Bowen was entering his freshman year in college.


Some of my thoughts on White have translated to to the floor in the Big Ten, but one area I missed on was not believing White could be a big time contributor this year. He has been and coaches around the league have been raving about his play after nearly every Iowa game. He was fearless in the summer and he has been fearless in the league.

White and Marble could go down as two of the bigger recruiting success stories of the last 25 or so years of Iowa basketball. Teams were not beating down their doors to bring them on to campus, but Fran McCaffery saw something in White and has helped Marble develop his game. Both of these players have high ceilings while playing at unexpected levels so early in their careers.
 
McCabe reminds me a lot of Jess Settles, he is a guy always hustling and one of the few that knows how to take a charge. He is rarely out of position and seems to have a high basketball IQ.
 
I am surprised that you are buying into the weight gain story with Mel. I just don't buy that as the cause of his malaise this season. I thought the rest of the analysis was pretty good.
 
The statistics that make me happiest are the 3-point stats. First, because I got sick of the stand around and chuck up a 3 offense that Lickliter ran. I know we aren't making a ton of 3s, but we aren't shooting a ton either, mostly because Iowa is finding ways to get to the rim or finding open mid-range jumpers.

Defensively, I think the zone sets have really improved over the last few weeks, and by switching looks occasionally, Fran is making it tough for other teams to get in rhythm offensively. A lot of the 3-point attempts other teams are taking are not the result of movement or drive-and-kick, but instead from just passing the ball around the perimeter until late in the shot clock (much like the Lick-era Hawks). Those are the kind of shots Iowa wants to give up.
 
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Jon, do you have a membership to Synergysports or any other similiar stats/scouting websites? If so would love to see a breakdown on the percentage of zone vs man defensive sets we've ran in the B10.
 
In looking at games played in by Basabe last year, he did look considerably thinner.

I look for him to play well the rest of the year.....
 
i love the aggressive style of McCabe, White, and Marble. Sure, they make a good share of mistakes, but with time they'll learn to control that better. McCabe isn't afraid to "get his hands dirty" and we really need that. He'll get better at controlling that aggression, and will be an excellent 6th man for the next couple years (unless Mel doesn't return to form and McCabe steals his spot).
 
I think the reason you see Penn State and Iowa up at the top for offensive rebounds is because both teams get off a lot of shots on the offensive side of the court yet both teams are at the bottom of the B1G in terms of eFG%. A lot of missed shots for Iowa and Penn State turn into offensive rebounding chances. I think if you compared Offensive Rebounding %, you'd probably see a marked difference. But I don't have those stats to back that up at this moment.
 
I think the reason you see Penn State and Iowa up at the top for offensive rebounds is because both teams get off a lot of shots on the offensive side of the court yet both teams are at the bottom of the B1G in terms of eFG%. A lot of missed shots for Iowa and Penn State turn into offensive rebounding chances. I think if you compared Offensive Rebounding %, you'd probably see a marked difference. But I don't have those stats to back that up at this moment.

Quit wasting time posting and figure it out!
 
I am surprised that you are buying into the weight gain story with Mel. I just don't buy that as the cause of his malaise this season. I thought the rest of the analysis was pretty good.

So what is your theory on Mel?

I think it is a combo of things,including the weight gain.
Conditioning. Change in our frontcourt mix. Scouting.
Mel trying to expand his game.

As Fran's mantra for Mel has been....rebound,run the floor,putbacks...I think Mel got away from his strengths a bit.
Still,he did have a string of good games until the last week or so.

Now that Zach has put together a few good games, watch him draw more attention,which could free up Mel some more.
 
So what is your theory on Mel?

I think it is a combo of things,including the weight gain.
Conditioning. Change in our frontcourt mix. Scouting.
Mel trying to expand his game.

As Fran's mantra for Mel has been....rebound,run the floor,putbacks...I think Mel got away from his strengths a bit.
Still,he did have a string of good games until the last week or so.

Now that Zach has put together a few good games, watch him draw more attention,which could free up Mel some more.

I'm not sure I have seen a player care less in basketball games than Mel at the start of the season.
 
34 nailed it the staff and the world are lying to cover up what happened to Basabe.
just ask him knows the god given truth,
 
Come on double H. It isn't really a huge conspiracy, it is more of a simple cover story to shed negative publicity from a player that is struggling. For whatever reason, Mels heart and head don't seem to be in the game if he doesn't get positive results in the first couple of possessions. If you have a player that is having trouble keeping his motor running at a high level, do you really think calling him on it in public will make that better? I'm sure Fran is trying to work Mel through this, and I hope we see positive results soon.
 
McCabe reminds me a lot of Jess Settles, he is a guy always hustling and one of the few that knows how to take a charge. He is rarely out of position and seems to have a high basketball IQ.

I've thought the same thing. Settles was a far better player early in his career, but both players have/had the same types of skills: ability to bang a little bit down low, can shoot the 3 ball, and can present matchup problems on the perimeter with the ability to put the ball on the floor.
 
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