If I'm Pollard I would be thinking this is an ideal time to make a switch. Let's assume they finally get lucky and get a good hire that shows signs of better things ahead. To catch the other in-state program in a down cycle is the best time to try to move the axis of power needle especially as it relates to garnering more attention from the in-state prospects.
I think you're making too much of this. Fandom and recruiting high school kids in this state is generational. I think it would take something like Iowa going under .500 4-5 straight years while ISU is 7+ wins for 4-5 straight years for this even to start to swing, and the odds of both of those things are extremly low.
Both schools are stuck with their coaches for a MINIMUM of 2 more years.
I think you're dead wrong here. ISU is adding about 7k seats going into next season and we had a 10% drop in season tickets going into this year. What if we have a 20% drop in season ticket sales going into next year? That is conceivable at the very least.
I'm sorry but you cannot hemmorage 30% of season ticket holders in 2 years while adding 7k seats, have another crap season, and then expect anybody to keep hanging on. If ISU fans vote with their dollars and it's another season like this one next year, it's over.
His buyout is 4.95 million and he's got a 300k retention bonus due on 2/1/15. We're talking about essentially about 400k between firing him this year or next year. If the program is going to lose more than that, possibly significantly mroe than that, the decision is clear in my mind. But we'll see.