Fran could win zero Big Ten games this year and next and we aren't making another coaching change. CAARHawk, I appreciate your research on coaching turnarounds, but what your statistics miss is that the vast majority of those coaches are on a much shorter leash than McCaffery is. Unlike those coaches, he will get time, for the simple fact that no school wants to have five basketball coaches in 15 years. If you fire Fran at any point in the next three seasons here is what prospective coaching candidates will see: Successful coach with no NCAA problems fired, successful coach run out of town, coach fired before a full four-year recruiting cycle, coach fired before a full four-year recruiting cycle. Do you really think Bob Huggins, Rick Majerus, or any similar coaches are going to walk through that door? What kind of money would it take to get guys like that into such a horrible situation, and where is that money going to come from? How many big-name coaches were lined up up after Lick was fired, even though it was obviously the right decision from a basketball perspective? All those coaches could see was a bad program that didn't even give a coach an opportunity to go through a full recruiting cycle.
The NIT in year 2 and NCAA in year 3 talk was always irrelevant. Fran is going to be evaluated on years 4, 5, and 6. If he doesn't commit some sort of major NCAA violation or get in legal trouble, I fully expect to see him complete his contract regardless of on-court results (that is, unless he wants to leave).
As to your point about panic recruiting, it seems to me that Fran was avoiding panic by pulling offers on marginal guys like Glover and not going all-out after Washpun. Now he's getting savaged for it... I'd still rather take the shot for a potential program-changing guy rather than just bringing in warm bodies. This one was a miss, but if any coach who can hit 70% of those guys is going to be a success. We'll see how it develops. Maybe it will be this year, maybe the year after, maybe the class of 2014. But Fran will get multiple opportunities to bring in better players-- as he should.