Imlivingthedream
Well-Known Member
Kirks a good coach. Hes not Hayden. I will hang my hat on having knowledge of what Iowa football was like prior to each of their arrivals.
Iowa Offense: Statistical Look Since 2001
- Thread starter JonDMiller
- Start date
Kirks a good coach. Hes not Hayden. I will hang my hat on having knowledge of what Iowa football was like prior to each of their arrivals.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Paging HomerHawkeye, paging HomerHawkeye. Please enlighten Jon on the dangers of using time series statistics without a valid control for outrageous R-squared when the variables in the analysis are subject to potentially exogenous events such as the Kennedy assassination and the oil crisis in the '70's that could have skewed our winning percentage.
tdia
Well-Known Member
28 wins in the last three seasons, 3 strait big bowl wins, things seem to be rolling in the right direction. I wonder about some play calls myself but would like to see KOK stay. I worry to much about effect recruiting might take if change in oc in the off season. I hate how much every Iowa game is a nail biter, but none of this would be talked about if we reached double digit wins again this year.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Right, he is not Hayden.
I find it fascinating, and encouraging, that Iowa has won at a nearly identical level using decade spans as a measuring stick, with two coaches who are different in their aversion or acceptance of risk.
But when you boil things down a bit, I think you'd find their teams were built upon very, very similar foundations. It's just that one of them was more likely to call a fake punt than the other.
HawkPhreek
Well-Known Member
IMO this why Iowa people suffer from "Just Iowa " syndrome. Great so you think Kirk is the best coach Iowa has ever had. Could be right. Why not be the best coach in the nation? Why should Iowa not want to best coach in the nation? You people don't think Kirk can improve? Ask him I would bet he would tell you he can Improve. As far as Iowa offense as been "above average" its suppose to be. That is just meeting the standard and not exactly excelling. Kirk is stubborn no doubt, but if you don't think things will change next year then your mistaken. He will adjust.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I guess I take a look at the inherent obstacles that have to be overcome at Iowa in order to succeed at this level over a 10 year run, and feel pretty good about it. Winning at Iowa is not the same as winning at Florida, Texas, Ohio State, USC, Alabama, etc. It's a lot harder.
When schools like Michigan, Nebraska and Tennessee (to name just three recent examples) show they are one bad coaching hire away from mediocrity or worse, given the tradition they have to sell that is far stronger than what Iowa has to sell, I am pretty pleased about things.
You can wish and want for more all you want, and I certainly would love to see it. But to suggest what we have experienced the last decade is anything other than excellent, considering all things and all things not being equal, I think that mentality doubles back in on itself and sets people up for unfair expectations, on the average.
That does not mean that the 2010 season can be whitewashed away and that it wasn't disappointing; it was.
northendzone1
Well-Known Member
Jon, this rational approach simply cannot be comprehended by a lot of the message board crew or the tavern hawks.
There are far too many Iowa fans that simply can't wrap their heads around the concept that the grass isn't always greener...
There are far too many Iowa fans that simply can't wrap their heads around the concept that the grass isn't always greener...
HawkPhreek
Well-Known Member
I agree with what your saying here. Its not the same to win at those schools, but somewhere along the line coaches made these programs too. Iowa's run has been great it shows in recruiting we are getting commits and looks from kids years ago would have laughed.
I don't like comparing Iowa to Iowa I think times are different and the goal is to be great now. Not better than a 1980's team. Using data like this imo skews what Kirk and Hayden have done. They both are/were great coaches I think data should be vs other programs from the same era. Not putting them up vs each other.
Lastly, Kirk is a great coach, but needs to do better than this year. I think he would agree with this. He deserves to be criticized for this years results. Kirk is slow to change, but has that right recipe for success. Remember when he use to not play true freshman. Throwing up past data doesn't mean this year was ok.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
michigan won its first title in 1901..USC in the late 20's...sport invented in 1889
HawkPhreek
Well-Known Member
michigan won its first title in 1901..USC in the late 20's...sport invented in 1889
LOL,..good point the momentum is still rolling.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
After the NU game, I blasted this staff hard. Too hard. I had called 8-4 going into the season because I thought the personnel losses we had were huge and ones that we were not capable of overcoming. We should have been all over that fake punt against Wisconsin and we should have taken the wind in the 4th quarter of the NU game. Other than those things, given injuries at LB and RG, I don't think we had that bad of a year and I thought the coaching was adequate. The other teams have 11 guys on the field working their tails off, too, and some days the other team is just gonna have your number. Iowa often is the beneficiary of having other teams' numbers, but this year that didn't work out. The key in 2010 was that young guys got a chance at LB and the OL looks like it's set for next year. That OL is shaping up to be mighty salty next year and we will be back under the radar, where we generally play our best football.
MNHawkeyeFreak
Well-Known Member
You must think I don't anticipate questions like yours.
Iowa 1952-1960, entire Evy span: .6506
Iowa 2001-2010: .6746
Pick a span...any span
The 40's? Seriously? .3908
Jon = Rainman
Imlivingthedream
Well-Known Member
creeksider
Well-Known Member
Jon, your stats don't reflect the fact that the Iowa offense consistently underperforms against lesser teams. Consider Wisky and PSU, both which run similar systems. Against Minny, NW and Indiana, the Badgers averaged 64+ points. PSU, with a walk on QB w/ no experience averaged 36 points against those three teams. Iowa, with a senior QB, etc. - averaged less than 20 points.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I am not saying the offense is a world beater, but the three teams cited, Indy, NW and MN, Adam Robinson didn't play in two of those games and most everyone in the chat I held for the NW game was saying that Robinson didn't look right. He was Stanzi's physical and mental blanket of pass protection, and I think it got into Rick's head a bit. Combine that with Iowa starting its fourth string right guard in all three of those games, all of these things happening the game after the MSU explosion, I think those injuries were the tipping point.
Because before the last four games, Iowa was averaging 51% third down conversion and 34.1/ppg...through 8 games...two-thirds of a season. Typically by that point in Ferentz era football, you are who you are.
The video clip Jon posted brought back memories to my initial reaction when Ferentz hired O'Keefe: How in the world do you go from being a coach at the Allegheny type level of football to becoming an offensive coordinator at a major BCS school? That's one heck of a promotion! He went from coaching games at stadiums where there aren't any stands on one side of the field to calling games at Kinnick, The Big House and The Horse Shoe!
silvanthalas
Well-Known Member
Huh. Can't imagine that has anything to do with the coaching he receives from the QB coach...
An average to poor offensive football team with a flash of above average brilliance every few years.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
The 8.4 wins per season have been nice, no doubt. I'm not discounting what we've accomplished the past decade. But would we have done even better if we had an offense that was more consistently effective instead of just playing to "stay out of the way"? That's why I think one of the earlier posters mentioned that the offense is "holding us back". With the exception of 2002, our best offenses have only sniffed the Top-25.
If the defense can consistently be Top-10 nationally, then why does the offense have so much trouble finishing better than middle of the pack? I would even be glad to see us around Top-25 most years. I'm not asking our offense to be world beaters, just effective.
While 8.4 wins may be "good enough", I personally believe we would be able to do even better if our offense was putting more points on the board. 2002 for example, is an example of what I believe we could be if we had a more consistent offense.
Our offense reminds me sometimes of baseball where you squander good pitching because your team can't hit, and you lose 2-1. If you could have scratched out 4 or 5 runs you win. You don't have to score 10.
Is it too much to ask for the offense to take some burden off the defense?
If the defense can consistently be Top-10 nationally, then why does the offense have so much trouble finishing better than middle of the pack? I would even be glad to see us around Top-25 most years. I'm not asking our offense to be world beaters, just effective.
While 8.4 wins may be "good enough", I personally believe we would be able to do even better if our offense was putting more points on the board. 2002 for example, is an example of what I believe we could be if we had a more consistent offense.
Our offense reminds me sometimes of baseball where you squander good pitching because your team can't hit, and you lose 2-1. If you could have scratched out 4 or 5 runs you win. You don't have to score 10.
Is it too much to ask for the offense to take some burden off the defense?
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PawkHawk1
Well-Known Member
This is EXACTLY my thoughts. Excellent post.
PeoriaHWKI
Well-Known Member
I don't htink KOK is that bad at his style and I like it. i think the play calling at cetain times in the game are questionable and don't help the defense. I also think he does a poor job of QB development.