Iowa is 2-15 against AP top 25 teams since 2017

S

SwirlinLingerie

Well-Known Member
Someone should check my work, but I believe Iowa is 2-15 against teams that ended up in the AP final top 25 rankings for that season going back to the 2017 season.

Again, that's based on the final poll of the year (after the bowls), which is a decent measure of how good the opponents actually were. That's a winning percentage of 0.118.

Please note that figure includes 3 losses from this season (Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State) if the season was to end today and the most recent AP poll is used for 2022. The only wins in that period over final top 25 teams are Ohio State (2017) and Minnesota (2019).

Interestingly, of those 15 losses, only three are to Ohio State (1) and Michigan (3). And only one of them is to a non conference team (Kentucky).

I think this explains some of the fatigue for fans. Kirk has built a team in recent years that minimizes mistakes and is unlikely to lose a game to a flawed or inferior opponent, but has rarely been able to get over the hump against what feels like an equal or better team. Perhaps the offense has been too limited to give the team a chance in those games, and/or the game plan has been too conservative against equally talented teams.

It's worth pointing out that Iowa was already eliminated from the West race for the only two top 25 wins in that period - and those were arguably the most aggressive game plans that we've seen offensively in the Brian Ferentz as OC years.

Also interesting - zero wins against division rivals Wisconsin and Northwestern during their "good years" in which they ended up ranked.

If someone comes up with a different record let me know and I'll fix this.
 
Thank you for a lot of work. In my opinion, we aren't, haven't been and never will be a National football power so long as the Ferentz family rules Iowa City. We have come close in the glory days of Evy and Hayden, but what we have now is politically correct mediocrity. Good god nepotism!! It's an embarisment.
 
Really cherry picking data. Final polls don’t take into account injuries that change how well teams play. A more honest look would note your data as well as the 6 or so wins you dismiss.
 
I have previously posted similar info regarding last years record.
In the 2021 regular season, Iowa did not play a team which finished in the final Top 25, losing to two teams (WI & PU) not in the final 25.
When Iowa did play final Top 25 teams in post season, we lost both games (MI & KY).
My feeling has been the '20 Covid season and the '21 season of favorable scheduling have masked an underlying fundamental decline in the the program which has become evident this year.
 
hagarwood said:
Really cherry picking data. Final polls don’t take into account injuries that change how well teams play. A more honest look would note your data as well as the 6 or so wins you dismiss.
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So you would count the '21 Indiana game as a Top 25 win because they were ranked in Top 25 when we played them in Week One?
They finished 2-10 for the season, 0-9 in B10.
 
hagarwood said:
Really cherry picking data. Final polls don’t take into account injuries that change how well teams play. A more honest look would note your data as well as the 6 or so wins you dismiss.
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Not sure you understand the term cherry picking. Evaluating a team based on their entire season (as opposed to one game, or a snapshot of any point in the year) is pretty much the opposite of cherry picking. It's the most comprehensive sample you can get.

The final poll is more representatiave of a team's performance than any poll all year. How many times have we seen a team (ISU 2021) ranked way too high to begin the year. DId Iowa really beat a Top 10 team on the road last year? No. Did we really beat a Top 20 team in the opener (Indiana was ranked 17th). Hell no, they ended up 2-10.

Yes, injuries play a part, but that's true for every team. Physical wear and tear is part of the game, just like how a player or team develops through the season. You play with the guys you have. Your record at the end of the season is who you really are.
 
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Give me a minute. I can probably find a way to show that Iowa is and has been the worst team in Power 5.
 
suisu said:
Thank you for a lot of work. In my opinion, we aren't, haven't been and never will be a National football power so long as the Ferentz family rules Iowa City. We have come close in the glory days of Evy and Hayden, but what we have now is politically correct mediocrity. Good god nepotism!! It's an embarisment.
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We are a "hard bottom line" business. Our 2 major sports programs. Still very Tough players and waay cool Fans. Power and $$$ speak or "yell long and quite Loud... Go Hawks! Saturday is next huh?
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
Someone should check my work, but I believe Iowa is 2-15 against teams that ended up in the AP final top 25 rankings for that season going back to the 2017 season.

Again, that's based on the final poll of the year (after the bowls), which is a decent measure of how good the opponents actually were. That's a winning percentage of 0.118.

Please note that figure includes 3 losses from this season (Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State) if the season was to end today and the most recent AP poll is used for 2022. The only wins in that period over final top 25 teams are Ohio State (2017) and Minnesota (2019).

Interestingly, of those 15 losses, only three are to Ohio State (1) and Michigan (3). And only one of them is to a non conference team (Kentucky).

I think this explains some of the fatigue for fans. Kirk has built a team in recent years that minimizes mistakes and is unlikely to lose a game to a flawed or inferior opponent, but has rarely been able to get over the hump against what feels like an equal or better team. Perhaps the offense has been too limited to give the team a chance in those games, and/or the game plan has been too conservative against equally talented teams.

It's worth pointing out that Iowa was already eliminated from the West race for the only two top 25 wins in that period - and those were arguably the most aggressive game plans that we've seen offensively in the Brian Ferentz as OC years.

Also interesting - zero wins against division rivals Wisconsin and Northwestern during their "good years" in which they ended up ranked.

If someone comes up with a different record let me know and I'll fix this.
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hagarwood said:
Really cherry picking data. Final polls don’t take into account injuries that change how well teams play. A more honest look would note your data as well as the 6 or so wins you dismiss.
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You're both wrong because polls are complete bullshit.

Do the same exercise with final Sagarin ratings or better yet Massey Composite, and you might have something.
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
Someone should check my work, but I believe Iowa is 2-15 against teams that ended up in the AP final top 25 rankings for that season going back to the 2017 season.

Again, that's based on the final poll of the year (after the bowls), which is a decent measure of how good the opponents actually were. That's a winning percentage of 0.118.

Please note that figure includes 3 losses from this season (Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State) if the season was to end today and the most recent AP poll is used for 2022. The only wins in that period over final top 25 teams are Ohio State (2017) and Minnesota (2019).

Interestingly, of those 15 losses, only three are to Ohio State (1) and Michigan (3). And only one of them is to a non conference team (Kentucky).

I think this explains some of the fatigue for fans. Kirk has built a team in recent years that minimizes mistakes and is unlikely to lose a game to a flawed or inferior opponent, but has rarely been able to get over the hump against what feels like an equal or better team. Perhaps the offense has been too limited to give the team a chance in those games, and/or the game plan has been too conservative against equally talented teams.

It's worth pointing out that Iowa was already eliminated from the West race for the only two top 25 wins in that period - and those were arguably the most aggressive game plans that we've seen offensively in the Brian Ferentz as OC years.

Also interesting - zero wins against division rivals Wisconsin and Northwestern during their "good years" in which they ended up ranked.

If someone comes up with a different record let me know and I'll fix this.
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Against teams that were ranked at the time, they are 8-11.

I don't think ranked at end of season is necessary superior, but it is an interesting data point to consider.

Worth keeping in mind...the fact that Iowa beat these ranked teams plays some role in them NOT being ranked at the end of the year. But I suppose that only applies to the borderline teams (#20-25), it would not apply to a top-10 team.
 
I get discounting the Indiana game and probably even the Iowa State game, neither team deserved their rankings but I still count PSU as a top 25 win even though they didn't finish in the top 25. Iowa contributed to them getting knocked out. There were other wins, Iowa was literally the reason why Wisconsin didn't finish in the top 25 in 2020 along with USC in 2019. I'm sure there are others where you can say a team didn't finish in the top 25 because they lost to Iowa.

I'm going to guess that there are not many teams that have good records against teams that finish in the top 25. Unless you're someone like Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State there are probably not many. Teams that finish in the top 25 don't have a lot of losses to begin with.

The current top 25 has a combined record of 155-25, last years final top 25 only had 54 losses combined. This means there are not very many teams beating them.

Edit - this is a 2 way street, there are teams that wind up ranked because they beat Iowa as well.
 
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Fryowa said:
You're both wrong because polls are complete bullshit.

Do the same exercise with final Sagarin ratings or better yet Massey Composite, and you might have something.
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ssckelley said:
I get discounting the Indiana game and probably even the Iowa State game, neither team deserved their rankings but I still count PSU as a top 25 win even though they didn't finish in the top 25. Iowa contributed to them getting knocked out. There were other wins, Iowa was literally the reason why Wisconsin didn't finish in the top 25 in 2020 along with USC in 2019. I'm sure there are others where you can say a team didn't finish in the top 25 because they lost to Iowa.

I'm going to guess that there are not many teams that have good records against teams that finish in the top 25. Unless you're someone like Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State there are probably not many. Teams that finish in the top 25 don't have a lot of losses to begin with.

The current top 25 has a combined record of 155-25, last years final top 25 only had 54 losses combined. This means there are not very many teams beating them.

Edit - this is a 2 way street, there are teams that wind up ranked because they beat Iowa as well.
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I'm saying it's only one measure to look at. And I'd say final polls are way less bullshit than early or mid-season polls. You should do the Saragin or Massey analysis. Would love to look at those results, too. Final AP polls were easy to grab for me.

I get the argument about an opponent not being ranked because Iowa beat them. But not sure how often that has applied for Iowa. Penn State was 7-6 last year. Ultimately they ended up being a pretty average team. In contrast, in the years in that stretch in which Penn State beat Iowa, Penn State was 11-2 (#8), 11-2 (#9) and 9-4 (#17).
 
First off what you are miscalculating, is when a ranked team loses at any point of the season they will automatically drop, if they lose 2 they wont even be ranked even if they are losing to ranked teams it doesnt matter, to me that doesnt make that a worthless win all of sudden....etc etc...so you are diminishing the win over a ranked opponent every time you use this formula. Its like saying Alabama only has 3 wins over a ranked opponent at the end of the year ...when in fact they have beaten 6 or 7 sec teams ranked at that given point in time over the course of the year.
 
I actually have no problems looking at the ending ranking/results at the end of the season. It shows who the teams really were that season. It's a better reflection than looking at the rankings at the beginning of the season.
 
I'm guessing Alabama's record over teams that ended up in the final AP poll in that stretch is like 33-5. And that includes SEC title games and playoff games. While Iowa's record is 2-15.
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
I'm saying it's only one measure to look at. And I'd say final polls are way less bullshit than early or mid-season polls. You should do the Saragin or Massey analysis. Would love to look at those results, too. Final AP polls were easy to grab for me.

I get the argument about an opponent not being ranked because Iowa beat them. But not sure how often that has applied for Iowa. Penn State was 7-6 last year. Ultimately they ended up being a pretty average team. In contrast, in the years in that stretch in which Penn State beat Iowa, Penn State was 11-2 (#8), 11-2 (#9) and 9-4 (#17).
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I do agree that rankings really don’t mean squat the first half of the season unless they’re math-based, and only a little bit then.
 
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