Iowa is 18-30 in games decided by 4 points or less

[homes]

During the Ferentz era. That's a 43% winning percentage. From 2010-2014, it's dropped to 7-14, a 33% winning percentage. There have been some particularly frustrating ones along the way. 2005 - losing to NW 28-27. In 2009 - losing to OSU 27-24. In 2010 - losing to Wisconsin 31-30, to NW 21-17 and to OSU 20-17. And, the 5 times the Hawks have lost to ISU by 4 or less.

To be fair, there have been some good ones, too. 2000 - beating PSU 26-23 in OT. 2003 - beating Michigan 30-27. 2007 - Beating ranked Illinois 10-6. 2009- beating MSU 15-13. 2013 - Beating Michigan 24-21. But, overall, as the record reflects, there have been too many disappointments.

Each year is different, obviously, but you can draw your own conclusions as to whether Iowa has played well enough to be in this many ball games, or they have underperformed and not won games they should have put away.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

For a coaching staff that bases their entire scheme on close games, this is really difficult to take. Just imagine if the 2009 team didn't get those bounces (UNI, IU, etc)

The other stat that shows we are trending the wrong way, when was the last time we beat a ranked team? When was the last time we were ranked?

I don't see how you can state KF is turning things around with those numbers. At least with Fran, we'd peak inside the top 25, beat some ranked teams.....and then collapse....but each year we got better and better.

Not so much with football.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

How many of those 14 Losses since 2010 was Iowa leading only to have victory snatched from us? That to me is going to be the saddest # IMO.. KF lacks the aggressiveness to put games a way, he prefers to grind out victories and all that does is allow teams to hang around.

 

[hawkfan340]

If we assume that these games are coin-flips*, we should have expected to win 24 of those games and there is only about a 5% chance that would get 18 wins or fewer by random luck. Just some mathematical food for thought.


* Not sure this assumption is valid however.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

How many of those games was Iowa leading only to have victory snatched from us? KF lacks the aggressiveness to put games a way, he prefers to grind out victories and all that does is allow teams to hang around.

So much for the idea of keeping it close to give yourself a better chance to win. Not to mention the choke that seems to happen to KFz's sideline when a big ingame decision is needed.

Can we get on to the next coach already... does the house have to burn all the way to the ground, first?

 

[ArvadaHawk]

Isn't 18 wins out of 48 total games a .375% (18 wins divided by 48 total games)?

 

[hawkfan340]

Isn't 18 wins out of 48 total games a .375% (18 wins divided by 48 total games)?

Yes.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

For a coaching staff that bases their entire scheme on close games, this is really difficult to take. Just imagine if the 2009 team didn't get those bounces (UNI, IU, etc)

KF would no longer be the coach at Iowa. Those bounces got him the ridiculous contract

 

[Hawknick]

One unmentioned factor that I have noticed is that starting in 2005 Iowa started to get mostly terrible calls. The quality or impartiality of the referees has decreased dramatically in the past decade. This did not seem to be as much of a problem in the early 2000s. With all else being equal several of these games would have had a different result and Iowa's percentage of close wins would be higher like it was about 12-13 years ago when the officiating was generally better.

 

[kirby]

KF would no longer be the coach at Iowa. Those bounces got him the ridiculous contract

It's better to be a Ferentz than good. Now KF thinks he can set up Brain as his successor. Nice. Entitlement.

 

[homes]

Isn't 18 wins out of 48 total games a .375% (18 wins divided by 48 total games)?

You are correct, sir. I hate math.

 

[Sirhouseman]

I am pretty sure I'm gonna start using this phrase. That is funny stuff.

"I'd rather be Ferentz than good."

 

[homes]

How many of those 14 Losses since 2010 was Iowa leading only to have victory snatched from us? That to me is going to be the saddest # IMO.. KF lacks the aggressiveness to put games a way, he prefers to grind out victories and all that does is allow teams to hang around.

Glad you asked. At halftime, Iowa was leading in 6 of those 14, and tied in 2 others. At the end of the 3rd Quarter, Iowa was leading in 5 of those 14, and tied in 1.

In the 7 wins (which include Ball State last year and NIU in 2013), they were down at half in 6 of them, and at the end of the 3rd Quarter, they were down in all 7 of them. So, they have shown the capacity to come back. Maybe it's because we remember the losses more acutely, but it's still too many close games that end up on the wrong end.

So, you take those 5 they were leading at the end of the 3rd Quarter and turn them into wins, and their record in those games would be 12-9. The season record in those years would be (instead of) -

2010 - 9-4 (8-5)
2011 - 8-5 (7-6)
2012 - 4-8 (4-8)
2013 - 9-4 (8-5)
2014 - 9-4 (7-6)

Would the fans feel better about Ferentz now if those games had turned out the other way?

I need to add, "It's a thin line between love and hate" - The Persuaders.

 

[RocknRollface]

If we assume that these games are coin-flips*, we should have expected to win 24 of those games and there is only about a 5% chance that would get 18 wins or fewer by random luck. Just some mathematical food for thought.


* Not sure this assumption is valid however.

It would be interesting to see what the spread was in each game.

Prior to 2010 Iowa atleast used to play favored opponents close.

Iowa hasn't faced but a handful of good opponents since 2010 which makes their record that much worse.

Id guess that post 2010 Iowa was probably favored in around %60+ of those 4pt games. Which would make them not a coin flip and even more improbable to lose that many.

I just cannot figure out what makes some people think Ferentz is a good coach.

 

[PCHawk]

Another question is how many close wins came where we were up 10 or 11 with a couple minutes left and gave up the meaningless touchdown at the end. It counts as a close win but really it wasn't.

Those games seem to happen a lot where we give up the late touchdown, up 2 scores, hoping to hold on to the win. It bit us twice that i can think of where they got an onside kick and scored again.

 

[RocknRollface]

Another question is how many close wins came where we were up 10 or 11 with a couple minutes left and gave up the meaningless touchdown at the end. It counts as a close win but really it wasn't.

Those games seem to happen a lot where we give up the late touchdown, up 2 scores, hoping to hold on to the win. It bit us twice that i can think of where they got an onside kick and scored again.

Nw 2005, Minnesota a couple times I think. Some directional michigan a couple years ago. It's happened more than twice and it's been close to a loss a few others.

 

[iowalaw]

Have no fear...this issue has been resolved. We now have a running game coordinator who got a handsome raise. Losing close games is a thing of the past.

 

[Hawknick]

Cool, I know that the changes in the coaching staff will help. I also hope that the quality of officiating improves dramatically.

 

[homes]

Another question is how many close wins came where we were up 10 or 11 with a couple minutes left and gave up the meaningless touchdown at the end. It counts as a close win but really it wasn't.

Those games seem to happen a lot where we give up the late touchdown, up 2 scores, hoping to hold on to the win. It bit us twice that i can think of where they got an onside kick and scored again.

Another good question. A quick review reflects that maybe in just 1 of the 18 "close wins" did Iowa have a big lead and give up a meaningless score to make it closer than it looked - Arkansas State in 2009. The Hawks were ahead 24-7 at the end of the 3rd Quarter and won 24-21. In other words, these games were almost always close. Those 18 wins are:

2000 - Penn State 26-23 (OT)
2002 - Purdue 31-28
2003 - Michigan 30-27
2004 - Penn State 6-4, Purdue 23-21, Minnesota 29-27
2007 - Illinois 10-6
2009 - UNI 17-16, Ark. State 24-21, Michigan 30-28, MSU 15-13
2010 - Missouri 27-24
2011 - Pitt 31-27
2012 - NIU 18-17, MSU 19-16
2013 - Michigan 24-21
2014 - Ball State 17-13, Pitt 24-20

 

[PCHawk]

Another good question. A quick review reflects that maybe in just 1 of the 18 "close wins" did Iowa have a big lead and give up a meaningless score to make it closer than it looked - Arkansas State in 2009. The Hawks were ahead 24-7 at the end of the 3rd Quarter and won 24-21. In other words, these games were almost always close. Those 18 wins are:

2000 - Penn State 26-23 (OT)
2002 - Purdue 31-28
2003 - Michigan 30-27
2004 - Penn State 6-4, Purdue 23-21, Minnesota 29-27
2007 - Illinois 10-6
2009 - UNI 17-16, Ark. State 24-21, Michigan 30-28, MSU 15-13
2010 - Missouri 27-24
2011 - Pitt 31-27
2012 - NIU 18-17, MSU 19-16
2013 - Michigan 24-21
2014 - Ball State 17-13, Pitt 24-20