Iowa Football Preview, Prediction: Hawkeyes, Rutgers Kick Off B1G Season
- Thread starter RobHowe
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To your point on trends:
You mention Iowa as 1-4 in the last 5 conference games, and 2-5 in the last 7 games overall. This is what I found for last year's spreads (different sites will of course have different numbers):
So we see that 1-4 in there (covered Illinois, failed to cover Neb, NW, Purdue, and PSU). But overall, I see them covering 3 of the last 4 (failed against Neb, but covered Ill, Miss St, and Miami), or 3 of last 7, or 6 of the last 10, depending on how we want to parse it.
I think an important point is that Iowa has been REALLY good at covering as a favorite (like, around the best in the nation since 2015, including last year), but they have been not so good at beating the spread as a dog. Look at the spreads of a TD or more last year (7 of them overall). They were 5-2 ATS (didn't cover vs. Neb, lost to NW).
Does that change your opinion at all?
RobHowe
Administrator
To your point on trends:
You mention Iowa as 1-4 in the last 5 conference games, and 2-5 in the last 7 games overall. This is what I found for last year's spreads (different sites will of course have different numbers):
So we see that 1-4 in there (covered Illinois, failed to cover Neb, NW, Purdue, and PSU). But overall, I see them covering 3 of the last 4 (failed against Neb, but covered Ill, Miss St, and Miami), or 3 of last 7, or 6 of the last 10, depending on how we want to parse it.
I think an important point is that Iowa has been REALLY good at covering as a favorite (like, around the best in the nation since 2015, including last year), but they have been not so good at beating the spread as a dog. Look at the spreads of a TD or more last year (7 of them overall). They were 5-2 ATS (didn't cover vs. Neb, lost to NW).
Does that change your opinion at all?
Found those trends here:
LINK
Fryowa
Administrator
Epenesa is going to see a steady diet of triple teams and pitches to the left side.
No different than than the avoidance Desmond King saw his senior year.
Chickenlounge
Well-Known Member
Was the plan itself really that bad though? We had a TD, a FG, a TO on downs, a punt, and the end of half.
The FG came from the 3 yd line after a good drive.
The punt was right after the missed DPI and BF's unsportsmanlike conduct (which someone on twitter mentioned got the refs looking for DPI more in the 2nd half anyways).
The TO on downs was from 4th and 3 at Miami's 36 and had been a good drive, and should have drawn DPI as well.
The end of half was going to be a serious effort, until Beyer jumped on the first play.
Again, what stalled us early was mistakes and a wee bit of refereeing. If we can come out cleaner, I expect a much better first half.
DBAHawkFan
Well-Known Member
The issue was, and always has been, that KF/BF (and before with KOK....forget GDGD) value balance despite what is happening on the field.
We could have kept rushing the ball in the first half and there was nothing Miami could do about it. I'm more in favor of imposing your will on someone, make them prove they can stop it, and then adjust. Or if you get such a lead that you can afford to start working in different offense packages/plays.
I get that early on in games the team may be going off 10-15 play script, and if so you can throw that out. But the run game was working and we went away from it. BF keeps bringing up the Patriots, but there's no way Bill B goes away from the run game. Neither would Hayden
We could have kept rushing the ball in the first half and there was nothing Miami could do about it. I'm more in favor of imposing your will on someone, make them prove they can stop it, and then adjust. Or if you get such a lead that you can afford to start working in different offense packages/plays.
I get that early on in games the team may be going off 10-15 play script, and if so you can throw that out. But the run game was working and we went away from it. BF keeps bringing up the Patriots, but there's no way Bill B goes away from the run game. Neither would Hayden
I think you will like this article over the last super bowl:
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/02/...ost-super-bowl-conversation-with-eric-stoner/
In particular:
Stoner: I agree. This game comes down to a really bad performance by Sean McVay — it was bad planning, bad game management, and McVay didn’t stick to his own offense.
If Bill gives you something — in this case, the jet sweep — he is daring you to run it 10 times in a row until he stops it. Bill knows you won’t try it because offensive coordinators and good quarterback are often impatient.
Waldman: The Seahawks knew Peyton Manning would be too impatient to nickel-and-dime his way downfield in its Super Bowl matchup. They gave Julius Thomas to Manning early, betting that physical play against Thomas would lead to mistakes and Manning would begin forcing the ball downfield.
It’s exactly what happened and the Seahawks stifled and blew-out one of the most prolific offenses in football history.
I bet Mike Shanahan would have run his stuff 10 times in a row. Marty Schottenheimer would have, too. Of course, that was a different era where overthinking for style points wasn’t as prevalent in football.
Stoner: It all started with the “I bet the Bills won’t use Thurman Thomas enough to win.” They want to make it look pretty.
Waldman: People-pleasing behavior is a killer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If Bill gives you something — in this case, the jet sweep — he is daring you to run it 10 times in a row until he stops it. Bill knows you won’t try it because offensive coordinators and good quarterback are often impatient.
Waldman: The Seahawks knew Peyton Manning would be too impatient to nickel-and-dime his way downfield in its Super Bowl matchup. They gave Julius Thomas to Manning early, betting that physical play against Thomas would lead to mistakes and Manning would begin forcing the ball downfield.
It’s exactly what happened and the Seahawks stifled and blew-out one of the most prolific offenses in football history.
I bet Mike Shanahan would have run his stuff 10 times in a row. Marty Schottenheimer would have, too. Of course, that was a different era where overthinking for style points wasn’t as prevalent in football.
Stoner: It all started with the “I bet the Bills won’t use Thurman Thomas enough to win.” They want to make it look pretty.
Waldman: People-pleasing behavior is a killer.
Now I don't think KF is often accused of going for style points or being overly concerned with people-pleasing behavior, but he might have an ideal he aims for, and he might too rigidly maintain that aim even if something else is optimal in a given situation. Belichek likes balance, but we know he will throw 50 times and run 15 if he thinks that gives him the best chance. We have not seen that flexibility out of KF.
But early season, I say work it all out, we can save imposing our will for Nebrasksa.
Knight78
Well-Known Member
I was at that game. My brother, who was in the Hawkeye Marching Band, got tickets for me and the wife. It really was two games in one.
RobHowe
Administrator
