Iowa favored by 14 points over Nebraska
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HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
It surprising that Adrian Martinez is still a Nebraska Husker. At the end of last years game, I commented that Scott Frost set up a quarterback competition by the way he benched Adrian. After his freshman year Adrian Martinez looked to be the answer to Nebraska's quarterback issues. Now a year later and Luke McCaffery is the starter, Adrian is on the bench and Nebraska is coming off a beat down by lowly basement dweller Illinois. Scott Frost gave credit to Illinois while acknowledging that his coaches and players all failed. Last week Nebraska looked like a team that is mailing it in. They are not buying Scott Frost's game.
Iowa is coming off a 41-21 victory over Penn State. While it was a 20 point victory, the game was closer than the ending score. Having said that Iowa was in control of the game from the first quarter on. Iowa's offensive and defensive lines controlled the game for the most part leading to miscues by Penn State. Petra's looked more settled in the pocket. Less happy fight. His throws were crisp. Of course he is helped by excellent wide receivers and a running game. So the challenge for Nebraska will be to stop a team that is solid on all phases of the game. Nebraska hasn't shown dominance in any phase of their game.
On to what we can expect tomorrow. Nebraska will be ready to play tomorrow. Whether or not that lasts beyond the first quarter depends on how the first quarter goes for them. Iowa can score multiple ways. Nebraska has to get their offensive and defensive lines fixed in a 4 days of practice. Iowa plays like they have for the last 3 weeks and this game is over by half time. Let them hang around and Iowa has to pull it off in the 4th quarter. Nebraska doesn't have the players or the plan to hang with Iowa. Iowa can beat Iowa, Nebraska can't.
Iowa 52-17
Iowa is coming off a 41-21 victory over Penn State. While it was a 20 point victory, the game was closer than the ending score. Having said that Iowa was in control of the game from the first quarter on. Iowa's offensive and defensive lines controlled the game for the most part leading to miscues by Penn State. Petra's looked more settled in the pocket. Less happy fight. His throws were crisp. Of course he is helped by excellent wide receivers and a running game. So the challenge for Nebraska will be to stop a team that is solid on all phases of the game. Nebraska hasn't shown dominance in any phase of their game.
On to what we can expect tomorrow. Nebraska will be ready to play tomorrow. Whether or not that lasts beyond the first quarter depends on how the first quarter goes for them. Iowa can score multiple ways. Nebraska has to get their offensive and defensive lines fixed in a 4 days of practice. Iowa plays like they have for the last 3 weeks and this game is over by half time. Let them hang around and Iowa has to pull it off in the 4th quarter. Nebraska doesn't have the players or the plan to hang with Iowa. Iowa can beat Iowa, Nebraska can't.
Iowa 52-17
bphawkeye
Well-Known Member
How much did you lose? You obviously don't know Kirk!You are probably joking, in which case sorry to be obtuse with what is to follow. But this is why Vegas stays undefeated. People get ideas in their head of what "always" happens, and those ideas are so hard to change no matter how much evidence piles up.
Under the current iteration of the coaching staff (i.e. since the start of the 2017 season), Iowa has the 10th best record nationally ATS in games they are favored. Among just P5 teams, they are 4th best.
College Football Team ATS Trends - As Favorite
Free college football team ats trends and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks as favorite results.www.teamrankings.com
Over that same stretch, they have the 2nd best margin ATS as favorites (+8.2), trailing only Bowling Green at +10.6 (BG has only been favored in 5 games over that span, to Iowa's 30 games).
And we have just won consecutive games by 42 (favored by 5.5), 28 (favored by 3), and 20 (favored by 1). Not a lot of "letting them hang around" going on there.
You know what Iowa hasn't been goog at sine 2017? Beating the spread as an underdog (bottom 20 in the country). They are roughly middle of the pack (technically slightly below middle) at winning outright as an underdog.
So in your mind, a single data point that says one thing trumps 3.5 years worth of data that says the opposite?
I don't bet, but if I had been going with the data the past couple years, and you had been going with your gut knowledge of how Ferentz coaches, I would be well ahead, today notwithstanding.
