Assumptions made by most:
1. Cartwright was the most important player on this year's team. Now that he is injured we're just kind of brushing it off like it is no big deal. Marble playing well is fantastic; missing your 2nd or 3rd best player and only true point guard still is a huge blow.
2. We would be "fine" at the center position. Some posters have hit on this, but I don't think we enough vigor. While Cole was average at best, we have dropped at this position in a huge, huge way. It almost reminds me of when Woolridge graduated and Deano was coming in as a freshmen. Man people didn't think it would be that big of a drop off, but it WAS. Cole is not Woolridge, but the dropoff is just as sharp. Brommer's lack of any kind of recognition defensively, balance offennsively, and understanding of spacing on both ends of the court is maddening. We are now starting a 6'7" center who played small forward last year!!!! McCabe has done an admirable job, but he is outmanned and outgunned.
3. Basabe would be a stud. This is the one I would put on the coaches the most. To their credit, however, they have helped him to come out of his shell, and I think by the end othe year his funk will be forgotten. Once he eliminates the bunny hop from his offensive arsonal he will almost be there. The face up game as returned, the rip through is back, and most importantly the rebounding is back. When it is all said and done I think Basabe's numbers will show slight improvement from year 1 to 2. Just not the leaps we were all hoping for from him.
With all that being written, there have been surprises. The defense has been definitely suspect in spots. Against UNI, Coach Fran had an excellent defensive game plan and they did a solid job executing it. Again ISU? The other team's best playing crossing overs not once but twice to slam dunks is pretty hard to swallow.
It also has been disappointing in spots to see us get into our early (last season) habit of "quick shooting" when the the going has gotten tough. Fran eliminated this habit as the season went on last year. I was hoping it was would be gone from this team, but it is easy to forget we are still very young.
On the plus side, I think you see last year's team on the court the past 2 games. The UNI game was a solid performance with team work, ball movement and an executed defensive game plan. The ISU game was typical of a team outmanned in spots, but also typical of the fight we enjoyed watching last year in a team that only finished with 10 wins.
The real intrigue will come if Cartwright regains form. With a week off, hopefully the hamstring can be healed. It would seem difficult to not start Marble at this point. If the team can use Cartwright to begin the offense, but still use Marble as a hybrid inside/outside shooting guard, we have a chance to move forward some offensively.
Even with Marble and Cartwright manning the backcourt, however, there is no easy solution to the gaping hole we have in the middle. The middle for our team is a drain both offensively and defensively and there is nothing the coaches can do about it.
The interesting think to think about it next year, and trying not to make the same mistakes as far as expectations are concerned. Gessel and Clemmons definitely are intriguing at the 1 positions, but it is hard to see them as upgrades over Cartwright/Marble as freshmen. Maybe we'll get lucky and Gessel will have a lot of Aaron Craft in him, but those types of players are few and far between. As mentioned, Dean Oliver came to Iowa with a lot of hype and fanfare. He became a great Hawkeye, but his freshmen year was no walk in the part (of course he get bonus points fo playing with Ricky Davis). If Iowa can pull off a "wash" at the starting 1 position, it would be a success.
Marble and probably May would be handling the wing duties. A downgrade in shooting with this tandom (compared to the current May/Gatens duo), but obviously Marble/May could be superior to Gaten/May. Marble seems to be going to that "Jake Kelly" place where you can just see the improvement every game. He is now becoming electric in the open court and Pippenesque on the defensive side of the ball. I remember think how unathletic he was as a freshmen. Now that is all disappeared. I can't recal which game (against one of the "bum" teams) him just throwing down a vicious, Eric Mayesque level slam dunk. That wasn't there as a frosh. If the stroke from the outside continues to develop (it hasn't made me cringe the last few games), we have a real player. While it may be easy to dismiss May as not being a starter next year, he will be a senior and will be asked to take leadership. Additionally, we can hope he builds off of the las two game; he has done good things against both ISU and UNI.
The power forward spot will be Basabe for Basabe. If Basabe can average 13 and 7 this year, which I think he still can, I would expect another small uptick next year to 14 and 8. He has holes in the game both physically and mentally that would seem to forestall in huge jump. He is a nice player, however. I loved what I heard from Fran about getting Mel back to blocking shots. Mel's length, quickness, and mid-range make him a difficult player to defend.
The center position is the most intriguing. It is assumed probably rightfully so that Woodbury will step into the starting spot. Expectations should be tempered, however. I could envision 5 point and 4 or 5 boards per game for the big man. However, at 7'1" and with a sense of the game (a strength for him--he isn't some marvelous athlete, but he knows how to play more than most 7 footers), it is hard for me to think we will not improve considerably at the 5 spot. We just seem so small. Those chubbys for UNI just pushed around and swallowed us up on drop steps. Guards penetrate on us with impunity right now; our only defensive threat being a McCabe charge. The combination of Woodbury's length (and I bet he takes charges ala Jared Reiner), plus Basabe (listen to Fran and start going for those blocks!) could make Iowa much better defensively.
The biggest upgrade would seem to come from the bench. The bench would be adding McCabe (moved from the starting lineup), plus would be much older with Josh, Aaron, Gabe more ready to play. I could see McCabe still playing essentially a backup 5 (Gabe is rough, rough); Josh and Aaron with a year in the weight room could make mini jumps, especially from a decision making/defensive point of view. Then you have the 3 remaining freshmen. Hopefully we don't have to rely on them as much as we have Josh and to a lesser extent Aaron this year. Clemmons will have to earn that back up PG spot (Marble is too good to sit much unless this is a quick mirage); Ingram will have to battle past Josh, Marble, and May; Meyer will have to battle Gabe and Woodbury. ISU destroyed us on the bench tonight; hopefully next year we can make strides in this area.
Whew. Well, I never post so probably nobody will make it this far in the post, but I'm actually excited about some of the glimpses I've seen the last few games. With tempered expectation I'm looking forward to Drake.