Iowa & B1G Bowl Projections

[bud2380]

No chance the Big10 gets two in this year:

Pac12 has both Stanford and Oregon which are big money, big audience programs.

Nobody would confuse Stanford with a big money, big audience program. They have like a 50,000 seat stadium and sent a small crowd to the Orange Bowl last year in the best season in the program's history. If a bowl wants seats in the chairs, they will stay away from Stanford. I would be shocked to see an 11-1 Stanford get the nod over a 10-2 Michigan or Nebraska.

 

[ibahawkeye]

Common sense tells me they lose both. Nagging feeling in the back of my head tells me they somehow win one, or maybe it's a tumor.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaTO8_KNcuo]It's not a Toomah! - YouTube[/ame]

 

[SirJamaLot]

Purdue has given up some monster games on the ground. Ball from Wisky averaged over 11 YPC against them and ran for over 200 yards. That said Iowa proved they can loose despite a monster game from Coker. I think we beat Purdue handily and have a shot at taking out Nebby to end the year.

Duff

my heart tells me to believe you my head says no way, everybody rips the coaches but what about the players?? we are way too inconsistent to win at Purdue plus they are playing for their first bowl in a long time, they beat us and Indy and they are bowl elgible, actually i think we are running into a buzzsaw and might get hammered, hopefully these seniors will want to go to a nice bowl, but with everything on the line last sat, we were as flat as a pancake, 6-6 this yr hope im wrong!!!

 

[SirJamaLot]

Let’s begin with the BCS. The league has gotten two teams into the BCS more than 75% of the time (10 out of 13 years). It’s going to come down to the wire this year, however. If Michigan or Nebraska were in the position Michigan State finds itself in, then it would look a lot better. However, Michigan State does not have the bowl cachet of those two teams. I think Michigan will win its last two games and get to 10-2. Will that be enough to be in the final BCS Top 14?

I believe Wisconsin will win the Legends and Michigan State will win the Leaders. I believe Wisconsin will get revenge on the Spartans, winning the first ever Big Ten title game.

That said, Michigan is 18th in this week’s BCS poll, with Wisconsin 17th, Nebraska 16th and Michigan State 15th. If the Wolverines run the table, they’d at least have a shot to move ahead of two of those teams. Or Nebraska could be the team that wins out, and the same would apply.

To simplify, if the Nebraska-Michigan winner wins out, I think they’ll find their way inside the Top 14, which is where you need to be for at large BCS consideration if you are a member of a BCS conference.

Here is how I project the rest of the Big Ten season for the teams who will be bowl eligible only:

LEGENDS
Michigan State 7-1 (10-3)
Michigan 6-2 (10-2)
Nebraska 5-3 (9-3)
Iowa 3-5 (6-6)
Northwestern 3-5 (6-6)

LEADERS
Wisconsin 6-2 (11-2)
Penn State 5-3 (8-4)
Purdue 5-3 (7-5)
Ohio State 4-4 (7-5)
Illinois 3-5 (7-5)

That’s ten Big Ten teams that gain bowl eligibility. The Big Ten is tied in with eight bowl games, so something has to give.

Here are where I feel the BCS bids will go:

SEC: 2
Big 12: 2
Pac 12: 1
ACC: 1
Big East: 1
non-AQ: 1

Total that up to get you eight bids. Give the Big Ten it’s guaranteed bid and you get to nine. So who gets the final bid? Not a non-AQ. Not an ACC team. Not a Big East Team. The SEC and Big 12 already has two. The Pac 12? Oregon beat Stanford Saturday night and the Cardinal will likely finish 11-1. Will that be good enough for a final ranking inside the BCS Top Four? If not, would the Fiesta Bowl take them? For now, I will say no on each. I am not trying to play Big Ten homer here, but a 10-2 Michigan or Nebraska is more attractive to the Fiesta Bowl, in my opinion. However, this is going to ebb and flow the next two weeks.

ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin
BCS: Michigan
CAPITAL ONE: Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are within one game of Michigan State in the win column, so the Cap One can take them.
OUTBACK: Michigan State
INSIGHT: Ohio State

***GATOR*** This is where things get very, very interesting. Normally, Penn State would have been off the board to the Insight, but this is not a normal year. Does the Gator Bowl want to invite Penn State this year? How excited will the Nittany Lion fan base be to go to a bowl game at the conclusion of this season which has been a true nightmare off the field, plus losing their last three games?

That’s a very tough call for the Gator and they can choose any Big Ten team in this spot, even a team with a 6-6 record. As long as there is another Big Ten bowl partner available, the Gator (or Texas & Ticket City) can take a six win team over a seven or eight win team.

That’s not going to happen in most years, but this is not ‘most years’. The teams available here are Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa and Northwestern. Of these teams, Iowa and Penn State have the best bowl traveling resumes. It’s not impossible to suggest that the Gator Bowl chooses Iowa here, unless I am totally misreading the Big Ten’s bowl selection procedures. However, let’s slot Penn State here for this week and see how the Iowa-Purdue game turns out. If Iowa beats Purdue and gets to seven wins and if the Big Ten places two teams in the BCS, I think the Hawkeyes will go to the Gator Bowl.

TEXAS: Iowa
TICKET CITY: Purdue
LITTLE CAESAR’S: Illinois
AT LARGE POOL: Northwestern

I dislike making ‘soft’ predictions like the Gator Bowl pick, but the ‘two-up’ scenario needs another week to flesh out and we need to see how the Iowa-Purdue game turns out.

Another factor to consider is TV ratings, teams with great tradition and tv followings (ND< MICH< Usc) ect, are always considered first to increase the ratings,

 

[NeilDiamond]

If the Big Ten gets 2 into the BCS then I think the ceiling is the Insight Bowl, otherwise Gator Bowl.

Call me crazy or a bad fan, but unless its BCS, Cap 1 or Outback, I have a very hard time getting excited about any of these bowls. The extra practices are a much needed bonus, but as far as the game itself, meh.

 

[Cyclones17]

There is absolutely no way Kansas State gets a BCS bid over Oklahoma or a Big Ten school.

KState currently is ranked higher than any Big 10 team in the BCS standings and plays @ Texas who has no RB's and than against ISU. They win both games and they will definitely get in over a Big 10 team

 

[SirJamaLot]

Call me crazy or a bad fan, but unless its BCS, Cap 1 or Outback, I have a very hard time getting excited about any of these bowls. The extra practices are a much needed bonus, but as far as the game itself, meh.

careful what you wish for, we did a lot of complaining about 2nd round losses in the NCaa under Mr. Davis and then found out life could get much worse, a bad bowl is still better than no bowl, ask the Kansas Jayhawks how much fun they have had lately following football, or maybe Tennessee

 

[NeilDiamond]

KState currently is ranked higher than any Big 10 team in the BCS standings and plays @ Texas who has no RB's and than against ISU. They win both games and they will definitely get in over a Big 10 team

I will also repeat Mr. Kelly. Thre is no way in hell KSU would get in before a qualified B10 team. Not saying KSU isn't worthy, but they have about 4 fans and nobody wants to watch them on TV. I cannot name one player on that team.

 

[silvanthalas]

careful what you wish for,

Apparently it would be impossible for 'life' to become better if Ferentz moved on.

 

[racerhawk]

Purdue has given up some monster games on the ground. Ball from Wisky averaged over 11 YPC against them and ran for over 200 yards. That said Iowa proved they can loose despite a monster game from Coker. I think we beat Purdue handily and have a shot at taking out Nebby to end the year.

If you're right, I'll be thrilled and happy. I don't think you're right.

 

[NeilDiamond]

Apparently it would be impossible for 'life' to become better if Ferentz moved on.

Agreed. People need to stop with the Tom Davis drama. However, a coaching change will never happen b/c Iowa could not afford the buyout. Thus, all the talk about getting rid of KF is for naught.

 

[Cyclones17]

I will also repeat Mr. Kelly. Thre is no way in hell KSU would get in before a qualified B10 team. Not saying KSU isn't worthy, but they have about 4 fans and nobody wants to watch them on TV. I cannot name one player on that team.

So you really think a 3 loss team in the Big 10 would get in over a 2 loss team in Kansas State that would be ranked roughly 10 spots higher in the BCS? Sorry but you are incorrect.

It doesn't matter as Oklahoma will get in over KState unless they bomb out and therefore KState doesn't have a shot.

Also, if Okie State loses than there is a good chance the SEC has THREE schools in the BCS.

LSU vs Bama in title game which allows the SEC to have another team be in the BCS. A 2 loss Arkansas team would get in over any Big 10 school

 

[SteveGarvey]

Say Iowa does win out...what is the most likely bowl scenario? In other words, what is our bowl ceiling?

Personally, I wouldn't spend a lot of time with this scenario. If there's a <1% chance of it happening I'm not wasting energy on it.

 

[hawkeye12345]

I will also repeat Mr. Kelly. Thre is no way in hell KSU would get in before a qualified B10 team. Not saying KSU isn't worthy, but they have about 4 fans and nobody wants to watch them on TV. I cannot name one player on that team.

Do you honestly think that most Big12 fans could name one player on any of the Big10 rosters? Hell, I would have a hard time thinking of many other than Denard Robinson for Michigan and Ball for Wisky. Get out of the bubble and breath a little.

 

[NeilDiamond]

So you really think a 3 loss team in the Big 10 would get in over a 2 loss team in Kansas State that would be ranked roughly 10 spots higher in the BCS? Sorry but you are incorrect.

If a B10 team is qualified for a BCS at large spot, they will get in ahead of KSU, no doubt about it. Its rediculous to argue otherwise. The 2 likely candidates would be Nebraska or Michigan. No bowl exec in their right mind is going to pass on those 2 in order to invite KSU. If you think so, I believe you should see a brain specialist.

 

[IowaBanker]

In correcting what a few people have said here in previous messages, I don't believe that a conference is allowed to send 3 teams to BCS bowl games.

Also, K-State is about as unattractive of a potential BCS bowl game at-large selection as you can find. They don't go unless they win the Big 12 Conference automatic bid.

The SEC will get two teams, no doubt about it. The Big 12 likely will get two teams (OSU and OU). The ACC gets one only. The Big East gets one only. Boise will get in as a non-AQ. That leaves the Big 10 and Pac 10, each with one qualifier, fighting for the 10th and final spot.

Assuming an MSU/Wisky Big 10 title game, then the Big 10's only real shot for a 2nd qualifier will be either Nebraska or Michigan, assuming that one of those teams wins out and finishes 10-2. If that happens, it will be very difficult for a BCS bowl game to turn down one of those schools in favor of a potential 1-loss Stanford team that doesn't travel well and doesn't excite much of the national TV audience.

 

[busabus114]

So you really think a 3 loss team in the Big 10 would get in over a 2 loss team in Kansas State that would be ranked roughly 10 spots higher in the BCS? Sorry but you are incorrect.

Does K State even have a fan base? They are never getting picked

 

[Clonehomer]

In correcting what a few people have said here in previous messages, I don't believe that a conference is allowed to send 3 teams to BCS bowl games.

Also, K-State is about as unattractive of a potential BCS bowl game at-large selection as you can find. They don't go unless they win the Big 12 Conference automatic bid.

The SEC will get two teams, no doubt about it. The Big 12 likely will get two teams (OSU and OU). The ACC gets one only. The Big East gets one only. Boise will get in as a non-AQ. That leaves the Big 10 and Pac 10, each with one qualifier, fighting for the 10th and final spot.

Assuming an MSU/Wisky Big 10 title game, then the Big 10's only real shot for a 2nd qualifier will be either Nebraska or Michigan, assuming that one of those teams wins out and finishes 10-2. If that happens, it will be very difficult for a BCS bowl game to turn down one of those schools in favor of a potential 1-loss Stanford team that doesn't travel well and doesn't excite much of the national TV audience.

If Georgia beats LSU, and Bama and LSU still finish 1 and 2 in the BCS the SEC can have three teams. Very unlikely boardering on impossible because voters will not allow a rematch.

Also, don't discount Houston. They are exciting and undefeated. And, as of now, I believe the highest Big10 team is #15, so they have work left to even qualify.

So you have Stanford with a lot of potential corporate cash. Houston could be intriguing for the Sugar or Fiesta bowls due to location. Or the Big 10 for tradition and TV sets.

I guess hawkeye fans can cheer for ISU the next three weeks to see if they can burst a bubble and take away the Big12's second spot.

 

[NeilDiamond]

Do you honestly think that most Big12 fans could name one player on any of the Big10 rosters? Hell, I would have a hard time thinking of many other than Denard Robinson for Michigan and Ball for Wisky. Get out of the bubble and breath a little.

Interesting comments from a man with 3K+ posts.

 

[TylerSash]

Call me crazy or a bad fan, but unless its BCS, Cap 1 or Outback, I have a very hard time getting excited about any of these bowls. The extra practices are a much needed bonus, but as far as the game itself, meh.

This.

The whole bowl system right now is just BLAH.

A 6-6 or 7-5 Iowa gets to play another mediocre 6-6 or 7-5 BCS conference team, or else the 3rd place team from conference USA, in some game that no one has ever heard of before sponsored by a car repair place.

BFD