JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Let’s begin with the BCS. The league has gotten two teams into the BCS more than 75% of the time (10 out of 13 years). It’s going to come down to the wire this year, however. If Michigan or Nebraska were in the position Michigan State finds itself in, then it would look a lot better. However, Michigan State does not have the bowl cachet of those two teams. I think Michigan will win its last two games and get to 10-2. Will that be enough to be in the final BCS Top 14?
I believe Wisconsin will win the Legends and Michigan State will win the Leaders. I believe Wisconsin will get revenge on the Spartans, winning the first ever Big Ten title game.
That said, Michigan is 18th in this week’s BCS poll, with Wisconsin 17th, Nebraska 16th and Michigan State 15th. If the Wolverines run the table, they’d at least have a shot to move ahead of two of those teams. Or Nebraska could be the team that wins out, and the same would apply.
To simplify, if the Nebraska-Michigan winner wins out, I think they’ll find their way inside the Top 14, which is where you need to be for at large BCS consideration if you are a member of a BCS conference.
Here is how I project the rest of the Big Ten season for the teams who will be bowl eligible only:
LEGENDS
Michigan State 7-1 (10-3)
Michigan 6-2 (10-2)
Nebraska 5-3 (9-3)
Iowa 3-5 (6-6)
Northwestern 3-5 (6-6)
LEADERS
Wisconsin 6-2 (11-2)
Penn State 5-3 (8-4)
Purdue 5-3 (7-5)
Ohio State 4-4 (7-5)
Illinois 3-5 (7-5)
That’s ten Big Ten teams that gain bowl eligibility. The Big Ten is tied in with eight bowl games, so something has to give.
Here are where I feel the BCS bids will go:
SEC: 2
Big 12: 2
Pac 12: 1
ACC: 1
Big East: 1
non-AQ: 1
Total that up to get you eight bids. Give the Big Ten it’s guaranteed bid and you get to nine. So who gets the final bid? Not a non-AQ. Not an ACC team. Not a Big East Team. The SEC and Big 12 already has two. The Pac 12? Oregon beat Stanford Saturday night and the Cardinal will likely finish 11-1. Will that be good enough for a final ranking inside the BCS Top Four? If not, would the Fiesta Bowl take them? For now, I will say no on each. I am not trying to play Big Ten homer here, but a 10-2 Michigan or Nebraska is more attractive to the Fiesta Bowl, in my opinion. However, this is going to ebb and flow the next two weeks.
ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin
BCS: Michigan
CAPITAL ONE: Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are within one game of Michigan State in the win column, so the Cap One can take them.
OUTBACK: Michigan State
INSIGHT: Ohio State
***GATOR*** This is where things get very, very interesting. Normally, Penn State would have been off the board to the Insight, but this is not a normal year. Does the Gator Bowl want to invite Penn State this year? How excited will the Nittany Lion fan base be to go to a bowl game at the conclusion of this season which has been a true nightmare off the field, plus losing their last three games?
That’s a very tough call for the Gator and they can choose any Big Ten team in this spot, even a team with a 6-6 record. As long as there is another Big Ten bowl partner available, the Gator (or Texas & Ticket City) can take a six win team over a seven or eight win team.
That’s not going to happen in most years, but this is not ‘most years’. The teams available here are Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa and Northwestern. Of these teams, Iowa and Penn State have the best bowl traveling resumes. It’s not impossible to suggest that the Gator Bowl chooses Iowa here, unless I am totally misreading the Big Ten’s bowl selection procedures. However, let’s slot Penn State here for this week and see how the Iowa-Purdue game turns out. If Iowa beats Purdue and gets to seven wins and if the Big Ten places two teams in the BCS, I think the Hawkeyes will go to the Gator Bowl.
TEXAS: Iowa
TICKET CITY: Purdue
LITTLE CAESAR’S: Illinois
AT LARGE POOL: Northwestern
I dislike making ‘soft’ predictions like the Gator Bowl pick, but the ‘two-up’ scenario needs another week to flesh out and we need to see how the Iowa-Purdue game turns out.
I believe Wisconsin will win the Legends and Michigan State will win the Leaders. I believe Wisconsin will get revenge on the Spartans, winning the first ever Big Ten title game.
That said, Michigan is 18th in this week’s BCS poll, with Wisconsin 17th, Nebraska 16th and Michigan State 15th. If the Wolverines run the table, they’d at least have a shot to move ahead of two of those teams. Or Nebraska could be the team that wins out, and the same would apply.
To simplify, if the Nebraska-Michigan winner wins out, I think they’ll find their way inside the Top 14, which is where you need to be for at large BCS consideration if you are a member of a BCS conference.
Here is how I project the rest of the Big Ten season for the teams who will be bowl eligible only:
LEGENDS
Michigan State 7-1 (10-3)
Michigan 6-2 (10-2)
Nebraska 5-3 (9-3)
Iowa 3-5 (6-6)
Northwestern 3-5 (6-6)
LEADERS
Wisconsin 6-2 (11-2)
Penn State 5-3 (8-4)
Purdue 5-3 (7-5)
Ohio State 4-4 (7-5)
Illinois 3-5 (7-5)
That’s ten Big Ten teams that gain bowl eligibility. The Big Ten is tied in with eight bowl games, so something has to give.
Here are where I feel the BCS bids will go:
SEC: 2
Big 12: 2
Pac 12: 1
ACC: 1
Big East: 1
non-AQ: 1
Total that up to get you eight bids. Give the Big Ten it’s guaranteed bid and you get to nine. So who gets the final bid? Not a non-AQ. Not an ACC team. Not a Big East Team. The SEC and Big 12 already has two. The Pac 12? Oregon beat Stanford Saturday night and the Cardinal will likely finish 11-1. Will that be good enough for a final ranking inside the BCS Top Four? If not, would the Fiesta Bowl take them? For now, I will say no on each. I am not trying to play Big Ten homer here, but a 10-2 Michigan or Nebraska is more attractive to the Fiesta Bowl, in my opinion. However, this is going to ebb and flow the next two weeks.
ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin
BCS: Michigan
CAPITAL ONE: Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are within one game of Michigan State in the win column, so the Cap One can take them.
OUTBACK: Michigan State
INSIGHT: Ohio State
***GATOR*** This is where things get very, very interesting. Normally, Penn State would have been off the board to the Insight, but this is not a normal year. Does the Gator Bowl want to invite Penn State this year? How excited will the Nittany Lion fan base be to go to a bowl game at the conclusion of this season which has been a true nightmare off the field, plus losing their last three games?
That’s a very tough call for the Gator and they can choose any Big Ten team in this spot, even a team with a 6-6 record. As long as there is another Big Ten bowl partner available, the Gator (or Texas & Ticket City) can take a six win team over a seven or eight win team.
That’s not going to happen in most years, but this is not ‘most years’. The teams available here are Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa and Northwestern. Of these teams, Iowa and Penn State have the best bowl traveling resumes. It’s not impossible to suggest that the Gator Bowl chooses Iowa here, unless I am totally misreading the Big Ten’s bowl selection procedures. However, let’s slot Penn State here for this week and see how the Iowa-Purdue game turns out. If Iowa beats Purdue and gets to seven wins and if the Big Ten places two teams in the BCS, I think the Hawkeyes will go to the Gator Bowl.
TEXAS: Iowa
TICKET CITY: Purdue
LITTLE CAESAR’S: Illinois
AT LARGE POOL: Northwestern
I dislike making ‘soft’ predictions like the Gator Bowl pick, but the ‘two-up’ scenario needs another week to flesh out and we need to see how the Iowa-Purdue game turns out.
