Iowa averages a 1.77 seed

So who does everyone think will be the four number 1 seeds. There's nothing scientific about this and there are no right or wrong answers. It's all opinion. I'm going with the following in no particular order.

Kansas
Villanova
Iowa
North Carolina

I think Kansas (Oklahoma), Iowa (Michigan State) and North Carolina (Virginia) could lose their seeds to the teams I have listed if the replacement team wins the conference tournament. Xavier most likely has to beat Villanova twice to knock them out of a number 1...which could happen but is unlikely IMO.
 
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The crazy thing is, there are only about 8 options left.

I saw Jerry Palm said they don't like to put the best 2 seed in the same bracket as the best 1 seed. That would suck if Kansas gets the overall 1 seed and gets put in the Midwest. Then iowa ends up the best 2 seed. What a lame way to get screwed out of Chicago.
 
I don't see both Oklahoma and Kansas getting 1 seeds. Its hard for 2 teams from the same conference to both get 1's since they both play in the same conference tournament.

Plus, history. Here are the 1 seeds and their conferences from the last 6 years. I'm too lazy to go further back, but there hasn't been two teams from the same conference get 1-seeds in at least 6 years. So its very rare.

2015's 1 seeds: Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big East
2014's 1 seeds: ACC, Pac 12, SEC, MVC
2013's 1 seeds: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Gonzaga (?)
2012's 1 seeds: SEC, Big Ten, Big East, ACC
2011's 1 seeds: Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, ACC
2010's 1 seeds: SEC, Big East, Big 12, ACC
 
I didn't put Oklahoma in there because of their schedule down the stretch. I personally think they should be a 1 seed but I don't think they will be.

Oklahoma - @ Texas Tech, @ West Virginia, Oklahoma State, @ Texas, Baylor, @ TCU and Big 12 Tournament

They have 3 tough road games and their conference tournament. If they only lose 1 more game I think they are a lock. But they seem to have hit the wall and peaked too early and can't win if Buddy Hield has a bad game. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.
 
mopkins said:
I don't see both Oklahoma and Kansas getting 1 seeds. Its hard for 2 teams from the same conference to both get 1's since they both play in the same conference tournament.

Plus, history. Here are the 1 seeds and their conferences from the last 6 years. I'm too lazy to go further back, but there hasn't been two teams from the same conference get 1-seeds in at least 6 years. So its very rare.

2015's 1 seeds: Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big East
2014's 1 seeds: ACC, Pac 12, SEC, MVC
2013's 1 seeds: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Gonzaga (?)
2012's 1 seeds: SEC, Big Ten, Big East, ACC
2011's 1 seeds: Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, ACC
2010's 1 seeds: SEC, Big East, Big 12, ACC
Click to expand...

I agree. That's why I didn't have Oklahoma in there since Kansas is playing well right now and has an easier schedule IMO.

Side Note - Only the ACC has gotten a 1 seed each of the past 6 years...just an observation.
 
I've got my eyes on UNC as well - they seem pretty 1/2 fringe right now and haven't been playing real well. Plus it looks like they have some difficult games remaining and could easily drop a couple. UVA may be a team to watch out of the ACC, stealing a 1 seed late.

I still think the Big Ten has a good shot at grabbing a 1 seed, either MD/Iowa.

I'm overstating the obvious, but it'll all come down to who gets hot (or stays hot) down the stretch. Still plenty of time for some shuffling.

Agreed that OU & KU likely don't both get a 1 seed.
 
More than anything I just want Iowa to get placed in Des Moines. I think right now that has about an 85% chance of happening. That was math I just invented on the spot BTW, but its very likely Iowa winds up in Des Moines
 
I think Michigan State has a way better chance at a 1 seed than Maryland. If Michigan State wins the Big 10 Tournament they will have won 13 out of 14 with the only loss being at Purdue in OT...barring an upset loss down the stretch. Their bad loss (Nebraska) was long enough ago that people will forget about it and/or it will be forgiven. And they are a "Name Brand."

If Maryland loses at Purdue and at Indiana they will have lost 2 of their last 3 regular season games and 3 of their last 6 going back to the home loss to Wisconsin. Closing the season at 3-3 will offset winning the Big 10 Tournament and put them on the 2 line. And I don't think they can win the Big 10 Tournament. I honestly think Maryland will end up a 3 seed and possibly even a 4 seed.

I think Iowa has a 96% chance of playing in Des Moines. I used a system similar to Mopkins to come up with this percentage.

Edit - Kenpom currently has Michigan State 3rd, Iowa 5th and Maryland 14th. Real Time RPI has Maryland 6th, Iowa 10th and Michigan State 18th. Average the two and Iowa is 7/8. Maryland is 10. Michigan State is 10/11.
 
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