I see a lot of hawkeye colored shades coloring peoples perspectives.
I agree that if Iowa wins out the have a shot (with a lot of help) for the NC game.
If they have 1 loss, and don't get the B10 auto bid; there is still a very good chance they make the BCS. But to think it a LOCK is making a lot of assumptions.
to get an at-large selection a team must have a final BCS ranking of 14, it's conceivable that Iowa could fall below this...
1.If Iowa loses the human polls are going to punish us. They are doing everything already to rationalize our success, if we slip they can justify all their UNI, Ark St. criticism.
2. the computers are what is propping up our rating now as we are #1 based mostly off our SOS. That will likely slip as we have 3 'dogs' coming up
Indiana is around a #80 team
NW is in the 70s
Minnesota is in the 50s
we are also helped by Arizona's high rating, they have Cal, ASU, Oregon and USC left; 3 of the 4 are on the road- odds are they drop
also ISU actually not hurting us now- when has anyone won betting them odds?
3. I count 16 other teams right now with 0 or 1 loss. Obviously that number will be pared down but there are only going to be 3 at-large spots left. There will be other undefeated/ 1 loss teams that have good fan bases who travel and have name brand recognition.
A 1 loss Alabama or Florida team would definitely be selected
A 2 loss Alabama/ Florida or LSU team very possibly could be selected
A Texas loss to Okie St. keeping them out of B12 title game/ or there loss in a title game would be a possible selection
I still think a 2 loss USC/ Notre Dame team would be a coin flip with a 1 loss Iowa team.
An undefeated Boise St. team, who missed out on auto bid because it went to TCU could also be a selection over Iowa, especially if Oregon continues to roll
IOWA IS NOT A LOCK FOR A BCS GAME