Agreed. Far better Iowa teams have gone into Ames against far worse ISU teams and not only didn't cover but lost. I wouldn't touch this game.
As a Hawk fan I disagree with this statement. In the games ISU has one since 1998 they either had the superior team or the talent level was essentially the same. Looking back at the series since ISU broke the streak in 98:
1998 (Iowa City) - Iowa won 3 games and flat out stunk
1999 (Ames) - Iowa won 1 game and was horrendous
2000 (Iowa City) - Iowa won 3 games and was pretty bad the first half of the season
2001 (Ames) - Iowa went 6-5 in regular season; played a decent ISU team that went either 6-5 or 7-4 in the regular season as well before losing to Alabama in a close/controversial ending with a missed field goal. ISU had the far superior QB; otherwise the talent was pretty much the same on both teams as evident by the 3 point difference in outcome
2002 (Iowa City) - the only true upset in the series since 1998; Iowa had far better talent.
2005 (Ames) - One of ISU's best defenses (if not the best under McCarney) against an overrated/underachieving Iowa team. ISU would have won another 2-3 more games that year had Hicks not gotten injured. This was a good ISU team that actually underachieved in terms of final wins.
2007 (Ames) - 6-6 Iowa team that had one of the worst offenses in the BCS and arguably the worst QB to play at the school in decades. Not an upset in my opinion; 2 bad teams playing bad football.
Of ISU's 7 wins since 1998, only 3 were against teams that went to a bowl, and of those 3 seasons ISU also went to a bowl. And of those 7 wins, I think only 1 was a true upset where Iowa had the clearly better talent (2002).
Ultimate point: the more talented team usually wins this game (except 2002).
All of this makes me feel better about the Hawks' chances this week. I think we will get good QB play, and from a position by position breakdown I think we have more talent and are much deeper. I think the program is in much better shape then 2007, and we are not going into this game with the arrogance of 2005 or facing a defense as underrated as ISU's 2005 squad.