Iowa 3.5 point underdog to PSU

patmyne said:
Spread is now Iowa +4 as the HEAVY early action coming in on Penn St. while it's being bet 50/50.
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I'm a little nervous about this, as squares usually don't bet until Saturday morning. So the money is most likely coming from some smarter folks.
 
Those who think of this as "easy money" probably felt the same way about the game in Ames this year.
 
heres Iowa's second road game statistics:

date.............home............away............SU....line....ATS.......O/U
10/16/2010 MICH......28.....IOWA......38...W.......3½...W......53½...O
09/26/2009 PENNST...10.....IOWA......21...W.....-9½....W.....40½...U
10/04/2008 MICHST....16....IOWA......13....L......-6......W.....48½...U
09/22/2007 WISCSN....17....IOWA.....13.....L.....-7½....W......44.....U
09/23/2006 ILLINO........7....IOWA.....24....W.....20½....L......45.....U
09/24/2005 OHIOST.....31....IOWA......6.....L......-9.......L.....42½...U
09/25/2004 MICH........30.....IOWA.....17....L......-14.....W....39½...O
09/27/2003 MICHST.....20.....IOWA.....10....L......7½.....L.....45½...U
09/28/2002 PENNST.....35.....IOWA.....42....W.....-8......W.....55.....O
 
patmyne said:
Spread is now Iowa +4 as the HEAVY early action coming in on Penn St. while it's being bet 50/50.
Click to expand...

predicted this line movement in the other thread about this games point spread: (post 2)

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/34588-entertainment-purposes-only-psu-1-5-2-5-a.html

wow, certainly penn state being 0-4 ATS doesn't help the spread for Iowa backers.... this line will probably move in PSU's favor. I think the east coast bettors will pound PSU.

below is Penn state as a favorite at home of 6 or less. they are 1-4 ATS and 1-4 SU.*

11/07/2009 PENNST 7 OHIOST 24 -4½ L 41 U
10/01/2005 PENNST 44 MINN 14 -1 W 52½ O
11/06/2004 PENNST 7 NWESTN 14 -5½ L 42 U
10/23/2004 PENNST 4 IOWA 6 -3 L 41½ U
10/04/2003 PENNST 23 WISCSN 30 -1 L 46½ O

- in there last 20 games overall as a favorite of 6 or less they are:

10-10 SU & 7-11-2 ATS.
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from a handicappers view, this doesn't look good at all for Iowa. Public % has been all over Iowa all week, yet the spread keeps climbing. I bought in when it came out at 2.5 thinking it would go down. I hope on wrong- I mean I REALLY hope I'm wrong, but by the Vegas numbers it looks like a big win for Penn St. and the house. FWIW I also jumped on Indiana when it came out at +16.5, its down to 14 now. Good luck today! GO HAWKS!
 
hawklock00 said:
from a handicappers view, this doesn't look good at all for Iowa. Public % has been all over Iowa all week, yet the spread keeps climbing. I bought in when it came out at 2.5 thinking it would go down. I hope on wrong- I mean I REALLY hope I'm wrong, but by the Vegas numbers it looks like a big win for Penn St. and the house. FWIW I also jumped on Indiana when it came out at +16.5, its down to 14 now. Good luck today! GO HAWKS!
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The movement of the line will not impact the outcome of the game, so don't get worried about the line.
 
Wow that spread is crazy. Iowa owns Penn State and it's not like playing at Happy Valley will bother you guys.
 
the line opened sunday evening at 7pm Iowa +1.5. within 6 minutes the line moved to +2 and 2 minutes later to 2.5. Monday morning it jumped to 3, 3.5 then to 4 and topping off at 4.5 last night- holding steady ever since. what makes it odd is that consistently throughout the week the majority of $$$ was being placed on Iowa, and still is. Which would make you think the line would go down not up. So my point is, for some reason vegas really seems to like Penn State a lot. they started the line low, saw the heavy action jumping on iowa, and have consistently raised it "against the grain" trying to draw more $$$ on Iowa. Im not a professional or win every game, but there are certain patterns I see that I tend to do well on. I hope I am wrong on this one. Go Hawks!
 
hawklock00 said:
the line opened sunday evening at 7pm Iowa +1.5. within 6 minutes the line moved to +2 and 2 minutes later to 2.5. Monday morning it jumped to 3, 3.5 then to 4 and topping off at 4.5 last night- holding steady ever since. what makes it odd is that consistently throughout the week the majority of $$$ was being placed on Iowa, and still is. Which would make you think the line would go down not up. So my point is, for some reason vegas really seems to like Penn State a lot. they started the line low, saw the heavy action jumping on iowa, and have consistently raised it "against the grain" trying to draw more $$$ on Iowa. Im not a professional or win every game, but there are certain patterns I see that I tend to do well on. I hope I am wrong on this one. Go Hawks!
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There is no way 70% of the money is on Iowa. The 70% is the percentage of bets, not money which is on Iowa. The money has obviously been coming in on Penn St which is reflected by the movement of the line. If you have a link to any site which shows the money, and not the bets on each side, I would love to see it. If you think the money is on Iowa, you have no idea how the gaming industry works.
 
you are correct, i was trying to hurry and think of an easy explanation so I can get outta here and go watch ball. %of wagers not actual dollars wagers. sorry for being vague, I realize there is a substantial difference. Good Luck
 
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