Iowa 18 point favorite
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deanvogs
Well-Known Member
I am usually very, very wary in this game. I hate betting the line, and got burned so many times on it that I have stopped doing so years ago. That said, this is the year to put money on Iowa and lay the 18.
I say this because Lanning is a TO machine and isn't accurate. In 7 career starts he has completed 57% of his passes, and has 6 career INT's in 7 games. Not only that but Lanning has some fumble issues and lost one vs UNI. Mike Warren also has fumble issues as well and lost 1 vs UNI.
One game does not a season make, but I didn't see anything from ISU that made me think they could hang with Iowa. If they would have been disciplined, but lost a hard fought game, I would be nervous. As it was the team showed a shocking level of poor discipline, bad decisions, complete coaching lapses (who tried to ice a kicking attempting a FG from the 2 yd line?? LOL). I don't think those types of issues can be fixed in a week. Take all of those issue and add on top the glaring lack of talent on that team, and it leads to a 21 point loss I believe.
I say this because Lanning is a TO machine and isn't accurate. In 7 career starts he has completed 57% of his passes, and has 6 career INT's in 7 games. Not only that but Lanning has some fumble issues and lost one vs UNI. Mike Warren also has fumble issues as well and lost 1 vs UNI.
One game does not a season make, but I didn't see anything from ISU that made me think they could hang with Iowa. If they would have been disciplined, but lost a hard fought game, I would be nervous. As it was the team showed a shocking level of poor discipline, bad decisions, complete coaching lapses (who tried to ice a kicking attempting a FG from the 2 yd line?? LOL). I don't think those types of issues can be fixed in a week. Take all of those issue and add on top the glaring lack of talent on that team, and it leads to a 21 point loss I believe.
SpecialKHawk
Well-Known Member
LOL really,,,,, you probably said these same things and then 2014 happened. Fools gold.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Nope. As I said, I am alway very very wary of this game. The only time I remember ever being confident is in 2009 and 2010.
WinOneThisCentury
Well-Known Member
I too approach this game every year with caution. That being said Iowa has clear advantages in the trenches...which is a major positive in a game like this. I know that has been the case, especially in 2014, but the difference this year is that we have a healthy CJ Beathard starting at QB. He's lost two games as a starter, (MSU and Stanford), there is no way in hell Ronald McDonald gets added to that group.
HAWKEY3
Well-Known Member
In 2009 and 2010 the confidence, for me, came from believing Stanzi would win the game. I have that same confidence in Beathard.
docholihawk
Well-Known Member
cyfans will be cyfans. Even after the loss to ISU's other big brother they still talk.
With one or maybe two exceptions this is the worst team we will play for the rest of the season. Give me the Cyclones. Why? Because nothing ever makes sense.
My dad (Iowa fan) went to their game yesterday and he says that they left that game expecting to lose to us. Obviously our game changed that a bit but still. He says their line play is awful so I think that will be key. I honestly thought we played decently except for our line and QB. Their poor line play should allow us to do a bit better. If our offense can actually do anything that should help the defense too. As much as it shouldn't be the case I thought they played well but by the end they were gassed.
With one or maybe two exceptions this is the worst team we will play for the rest of the season. Give me the Cyclones. Why? Because nothing ever makes sense.
My dad (Iowa fan) went to their game yesterday and he says that they left that game expecting to lose to us. Obviously our game changed that a bit but still. He says their line play is awful so I think that will be key. I honestly thought we played decently except for our line and QB. Their poor line play should allow us to do a bit better. If our offense can actually do anything that should help the defense too. As much as it shouldn't be the case I thought they played well but by the end they were gassed.
INTIMIDATORHawk
Well-Known Member
Iowa won last year in Ames. The Cyclones are the same or worse than last year, and Iowa (offensively) is better. Beathard is the type of leader that ISU lacks. Game is at Kinnick. Iowa wins.
HawkeyeWalker
Well-Known Member
I have this strange feeling we will see a similar vanilla base defense from Iowa again. At least to start the game. Little to no blitzing, stunts, zone, or mixed coverage (except maybe rolling a safety to Lazard).
I think KF/PP is gonna run base, straight up and see how it goes to start. I could be wrong.
I think even the base defense will look better with Jewell, Hesse hopefully full strength, and a week to work on mistakes.
Miami's QB was accurate with a strong arm....doesn't appear Lanning is yet. Jewell will help a lot with calling coverage and gaps. If we limit lazard I think we are in good shape. That said, the last 15 years have proved we shoupd not be overly confident, even with the better team on paper.
With this game, just win it and get better, and stay healthy.
I think KF/PP is gonna run base, straight up and see how it goes to start. I could be wrong.
I think even the base defense will look better with Jewell, Hesse hopefully full strength, and a week to work on mistakes.
Miami's QB was accurate with a strong arm....doesn't appear Lanning is yet. Jewell will help a lot with calling coverage and gaps. If we limit lazard I think we are in good shape. That said, the last 15 years have proved we shoupd not be overly confident, even with the better team on paper.
With this game, just win it and get better, and stay healthy.
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tweeterhawk
Well-Known Member
I hate this game and I hate these odds. Kirk-coached teams always seem to play down to Little Sister's level.
I'd love to see the team hang 35 on the Clowns in the first quarter like a Fry-coached team did against someone (Illinois, possibly) many years ago.
I'd love to see the team hang 35 on the Clowns in the first quarter like a Fry-coached team did against someone (Illinois, possibly) many years ago.
EstronHawk
Well-Known Member
I feel very confident about this one, kind of a 2010 beat down feeling that we laid on little brother.
Interesting article segment as put together by The Gazette today........
1. Irrelevant underdog
Something that seems to hold true most years these teams play: what’s expected going in rarely happens.
In the Ferentz era (he’s 8-9), the Hawkeyes have been favorites over the Cyclones 16 times (all in a row), including this year — the line on Monday was Iowa favored by 15 points. In the previous 17 matchups, the underdog (all Iowa State) has won the game outright seven times. Nine times, the favorite (all Iowa) has failed to cover the spread. Further, Iowa has been a double-digit favorite six times, and has only covered that spread once (a 35-7 win in 2010).
The game also does almost nothing to predict season success or failure. In Iowa State’s nine wins, the Cyclones had a winning record that season three times, and went .500 once. In the other five win years, Iowa State went a combined 21-40. Iowa had three losing seasons in which they also lost to Iowa State — 2012, 2000 and 1999, went to a bowl game in five seasons they lost and won the Big Ten once.
“You can see that no matter who’s favored in a game, it’s all about who shows up that week,” said ISU quarterback Joel Lanning on Monday. “Some teams didn’t show up or for whatever reason lost the game. Anything can happen in football. You’ve got to show up that day and execute.”
1. Irrelevant underdog
Something that seems to hold true most years these teams play: what’s expected going in rarely happens.
In the Ferentz era (he’s 8-9), the Hawkeyes have been favorites over the Cyclones 16 times (all in a row), including this year — the line on Monday was Iowa favored by 15 points. In the previous 17 matchups, the underdog (all Iowa State) has won the game outright seven times. Nine times, the favorite (all Iowa) has failed to cover the spread. Further, Iowa has been a double-digit favorite six times, and has only covered that spread once (a 35-7 win in 2010).
The game also does almost nothing to predict season success or failure. In Iowa State’s nine wins, the Cyclones had a winning record that season three times, and went .500 once. In the other five win years, Iowa State went a combined 21-40. Iowa had three losing seasons in which they also lost to Iowa State — 2012, 2000 and 1999, went to a bowl game in five seasons they lost and won the Big Ten once.
“You can see that no matter who’s favored in a game, it’s all about who shows up that week,” said ISU quarterback Joel Lanning on Monday. “Some teams didn’t show up or for whatever reason lost the game. Anything can happen in football. You’ve got to show up that day and execute.”
I'm with Mr. O. ISU will run back a punt or a kickoff for a TD, block one of our kicks or convert on a fake punt/onside kick, and Warren will probably rush for 204 yards. Will that be enough to beat us? You can count on the unexpected this Saturday night.
