Its not based just upon what they did this year, but what they have coming back, schedule, and direction.
The West is wide open given coaching changes and returning players. Iowa's crossover schedule is much easier as we rotate off OSU and Mich. Its a pretty safe bet that the defense will be salty again. We bought a QB who has already won big games in this conference. We return our starting RB and our OL has nowhere to go but up. Our TE room looks solid again and maybe with a QB who can deal our WR room will improve. We return our All-Australian punter and a good FG kicker.
Its not outlandish to believe we can win 10 games next season based upon the schedule changes alone. I don't see this as a stretch at all.
Look at the schedule and if you were Vegas and had to put odds on all games now, we are probably a push at ISU and Wisky, a dog at PSU and should be favored in every other game. It won't be that clean, but at this stage all you can do is model and predict.