Iowa +10.5 @ Nebraska

If I was a betting man, I'd take Iowa at +10.5 every day of the week and twice on Sunday. This is going to be a hard fought physical game that I see Nebraska winning by 4 to 7 points. No way it's a double digit beatdown either way
 
Since Iowa in the last 5 years has hardly had any double digit losses I would say this is a great bet. But the pride element can work both ways in this game. NFL bettors say when a team is embarrassed one week take them the next week taking or giving points. Nebby was embarrassed and they are back home so you could expect them to cover. But this is also a whole new rivalry game, the hawks have played well after the MSU 2nd qtr meltdown, so I would also take the hawks. I think the hawks play a "clean" game on offense and tackle well like against Michigan and play good gap defense and win this game straight up.
 
My head says that's high, but since this has been bizarro-year, I'll "Castanza" it and say Nebraska covers. 31-20
 
Hlas makes a great point below. 10.5 pts. seems like a lot to me.


Iowa’s last win as a double-digit underdog: 2000 | TheGazette

You see, the Hawkeyes have been double-digit dogs a mere three times (well, now four) since the end of the 2000 season. They were 13-point dogs at Michigan in 2004 and lost by 13. They were 12-point dogs at Michigan in 2006 and lost by 14. They were 16-point dogs at Ohio State in 2009 and lost by 3 in overtime.
 
Considering how the Hawks contained Denard Robinson, I would think the biggest threat offensively might be mitigated.

This will come down to offensive production. I don't see Iowa scoring more than 24 points in Lincoln. Feels like 28/31-21/24. Either way, I like that bet.

Too bad gambling is for the birds.
 
Not sure how much it matters but the true line is 9.5 opened 9 or 9.5. I figured Iowa would be more than a td dog.
 
surprised, considering Nebraska isn't very good. Their name gives them at least 10 spots in the polls. If it were at Kinnick, I'd almost be willing to guarantee a win.....on the road it'll be close, closer than 10.5 at least.
 
This is the first time this group of kids has played at Nebraska. This could be an intimidating experience and it is unknown how they will react to this stage. Not to mention, the game is on a Friday after Thanksgiving, which is very different from what they are used to. I don't want anywhere near this action.
 
Our Wins in true road games & the opponents season ending record:

2011:
Purdue 5-6 (season not finished)

2010:
Michigan 7-6
Indiana 5-7

2009:
ISU 7-6
PSU 11-2
Wisconsin 10-3

2008:
Indiana 3-9
Minnesota 7-6

2007:
Northwestern: 6-6

2006:
Syracuse 4-8
Illinois 2-10

2005:
Purdue 5-6
Wisconsin 10-3

2004:
PSU 4-7
Illinois 3-8
Minnesota 7-5

2003:
ISU 2-10
Wisconsin 7-6

2002:
Miami (OH) 7-5
PSU 9-4
Indiana 3-9
Michigan 10-3
Minnesota 8-5

Opponents Avg Record in wins on the Road since 2002:
Avg wins: 6.17
Avg losses: 6.08

Last road win against a team that finished a year with a winning record was Michigan last year.

Last time we won on the road vs a team that had 8+ wins to Finish a year was PSU & Wisconsin in 2009. Prior to that was Nov 12, 2005 vs Wisconsin.

Outside of 2009, we have only had 5 wins versus teams that finish with winning records while playing on the road, 1 of which that finished with a win total greater than 8; ('05 Wisconsin).

Wired thing is, the 2005 season greatly resembles this season. And we ended that season with 2 wins- and an Outback Bowl! Could History be repeating itself?

EDIT: We are 4-7 in last 11 road games!
 
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I think nebby covers. Away game...Vandy does not handle away well. Very mobile QB is not good for the Hawks and Norms scheme. I was forced to be in Lincoln and nebbyland a lot while working. That has to be the windiest State in the midwest which will hurt our passing offense.
 
We already have the template to beat Nebraska. Use the same scheme we used against Michigan. Michigan and Nebraska are virtually the same style of team.
 
archiehawk said:
I think nebby covers. Away game...Vandy does not handle away well. Very mobile QB is not good for the Hawks and Norms scheme. I was forced to be in Lincoln and nebbyland a lot while working. That has to be the windiest State in the midwest which will hurt our passing offense.
Click to expand...


Yeah after all Mich's Robinson had his way with us.......oh wait no he didn't...Mobile QB's who can't throw for crap are not that hard to stop for Iowa.....and Martinez is worst throwing QB in B1G.
 
As Jeckyl and Hyde as Iowa is, I can't even imagine betting on Iowa. They could go to Nebraska and play a tough game or they could just as easily roll over like they did against Minnesota. Flip a coin to see which Hawkeye team shows up.
 
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