Interesting Article from Kenpom.com

[dmihalke]

https://kenpom.com/blog/mining-point-spread-data-home-court-advantage/

Hawkeyes are ranked #7 in Home Court Advantage according to "the market-based home-court values"

 

[ArvadaHawk]

huh.....

 

[hawkeyes87]

I'm not a bettor, but I don't see what the significance is.

They're #7, but only 1/2 point above #63...

 

[InGoodCo]

Does it compare it to how bad they are on the road? Cause Iowa didn't really stand much of a shot on it this previous season.

 

[BryceC]

That's what the comparison is - performance at home vs. on the road. Like you said Iowa was pretty bad on the road, so it creates a big gap, thus leading to a large home court effect.

 

[InGoodCo]

That's what the comparison is - performance at home vs. on the road. Like you said Iowa was pretty bad on the road, so it creates a big gap, thus leading to a large home court effect.

That was my assumption.

 

[hawkeyes87]

That's what the comparison is - performance at home vs. on the road.

Actually it's not about actual performance.

It's comparing the line / point spread of Team A's game at Team B to the line for B's game at A.

 

[PCHawk]

I assume it doesn't even look at results. Just an educated guess based on atmosphere.

 

[Chickenlounge]

Because Carver lulls the other team to sleep. Home court advantage.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

Actually it's not about actual performance.

It's comparing the line / point spread of Team A's game at Team B to the line for B's game at A.

Yeah, well we almost beat MSU and a few other great teams at home. There you go.

 

[hawkeyes87]

Did beat MSU at home!

It's covering the last 5 years.

 

[InGoodCo]

Did beat MSU at home!

It's covering the last 5 years.

well, that makes more sense.

 

[Ree4]

The only problem is that it uses subjective information (point spread) to try to make an objective conclusion (home court advantage) I think "perceived home court advantage" would be a better description. That r-squared value is atrocious at best, it's fair to say that the "market" HCA is not correlated with "kenpom" HCA at all.

I did take a class at the UI called Sports Economics (my last class needed for elective) and it was all about sports analytics and regression, so I find all of these studies interesting and this is a decent attempt at detecting perception. If he could somehow tie actual performance in rather than spread I would be interested to see that too. Thanks for linking it!

 

[tmess1989]

Semi related to the OP, I heard on a podcast last week that the athletic department is considering some game experience changes for Carver and Kinnick. One thing mentioned was moving the student section in Carver. Not sure if those would be this year or not. I think it was last weeks HawkCentral podcast. We did get a tigerhawk at midfield in Kinnick and a tigerhawk coming to the water tower so i have some hope that the student section will get moved to get them closer to the court and gain more of a homecourt advantage.

 

[BigD]

If the Cook leaves meal times could look like rehashed leftovers.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

If the Cook leaves meal times could look like rehashed leftovers.

If the Cook leaves, Franny's Restaurant might have to shut down.

 

[DDThompson]

I'm not a bettor, but I don't see what the significance is.

They're #7, but only 1/2 point above #63...

agreed. However .... half points matter to Vegas so over time, that is significant.


Unrelated to gambling, the rankings of stats would look like this too. Like the difference between #35 offense yards to #78 could be 6 ppg a game. Not really significant in ppg but man 43 spot difference sure looks huge.

But then there’s no context to those stat rankings because Sun Belt teams play most of their games against Sun Belt teams. Big10 teams play most of their games against Big10 teams.

Troy could be ranked #35 in ppg. That would be an insignificant number since they play 18-games against that level of competition.

Like how crappy Iowa’s defense has been the last two seasons. The opponent’s ppg is about 8 ppg more than Iowa’s defense average of 3 years ago when the were average plus. 8 ppg less is doable for this team.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

So Iowa is sitting at #7 with Carver and Iowa St is sitting at #17 with Hilton.

I call BS with this article. Stupid.