I wonder if Fran thought it would be this difficult

[JHHawk]

So far, Fran has done everything in his power to lay the foundation by
1. Hiring what on paper looks to be the best bb staff at Iowa since Mr. Davis left. This immediately puts him ahead of the last two coaches.
2. Getting out and pressing the flesh among the fan base, which he does better than either of the last two coaches...this is important to sell some tickets for a season that will be a huge challenge.
3. Timing. Fran took the job when there are some very good Iowa prep classes coming out the next three years. Now, he is a bit behind with the 2011 class,but in time for the even better 2012 and 2013 classes. If he gets Oglesby, he will have nailed the top Iowa prep player who happens to be top 100 on many lists.
4. More timing...we all know this season is a honeymoon season with no expectations. That gives Fran a season to get it rolling. Then in 2011-12, the Big Ten will have lost a ton of talent...Lauderdale,Lighty,probably Sullinger,Lucas,Summers,maybe Roe,Hummel,Moore,Johnson,Nolen,Leuer,Nankavil,Battle,Tisdale,Davis,Thompson,ect.
That leaves a window of opportunity for Iowa to move up in the league,possibly. This season features one of the best senior classes in recent Big Ten history.
5. Facilities are coming...a huge obstacle removed.
6. BTN and football money means BB gets plenty of resources.

Recruiting is the name of the game right now, and that does take at least a year to show real progress. I know Caar has all the stats,but there are exceptions to the rule and there is real outside factors like the Big Ten expansion,the growing power of the BTN,new facilities,and local talent that might offset some of his stats.

Fran needs to catch a break with a breakthru recruit,either an underrated guy,or a rated guy that wants to break the mold,and bring Iowa back to prominence. It can happen...and I think Fran gives us a fighting chance to make it happen.

 

[sportstalent]

4. More timing...we all know this season is a honeymoon season with no expectations. That gives Fran a season to get it rolling. Then in 2011-12, the Big Ten will have lost a ton of talent...Lauderdale,Lighty,probably Sullinger,Lucas,Summers,maybe Roe,Hummel,Moore,Johnson,Nolen,Leuer,Nankavil,Battle,Tisdale,Davis,Thompson,ect.
That leaves a window of opportunity for Iowa to move up in the league,possibly. This season features one of the best senior classes in recent Big Ten history.

Someone read my mind here. The Upperclassmen in the Big Ten are clearly the best players in the league, with the exception of a few freshman like Sullinger and Appling.
One of the big things Fran has to do is establish a talent base, he has with the 2010 class. This class has four pieces to the elusive puzzle: PG/SG/SF/PF. Now, Iowa has needs, that is obvious. The biggest needs still are some quality size and overall depth. With the first class, backcourt depth has been added and now there will be flexability in what Iowa really wants to do as far as player combinations.
Most are writing this year off as a failure before it begins, but this season is about establishing what Iowa/Coach Fran is all about. The record, in the end, won't mean a whole lot unless the record is worse than last year and I think I have said it many times that I think with the backcourt depth that Iowa has a shot at the NIT.
It will be difficult, but not impossible as I think some want to believe. It seems that gloom and doom simply rule anymore. Yes it was not good the last three years, but it hasn't been that good for a while. I am really talking about the image of the Program when I say that. Not living in Iowa anymore, all I heard about was all the negativity and rarely any positive when I knew there were some. Since Coach Fran has come in, no negative attention, that is win in its own right. With the talent that is in-state and if Iowa can land a couple of them, expect them to only move forward with Coach Fran.

 

[CAARHawk]

Good points with respect to timing. The key is that FM is going to have to beat out the other more established coaches who are going to have to replenish their teams.

 

[MisterLucky]

One big plus in Coach McCaffery's favor is his personality and willingness to use the media to his advantage. I have seen him on TV more since he was hired than I did Coach Lickliter his entire tenure here.

 

[hwkwyld]

I appreciate optimism, but do you have anything specific to base that on? That is beyond his experience in a couple of one bid leagues? While it might transfer, there are far more examples of such success not transferring.

At this point it would look more appropriate to hope for the best instead of expecting it. If FM gets the team winning games or he starts signing ranked BCS classes, we can move beyond hope.

That is, unless you know something I don't.

Do you have anything specific to base your negativity on, other than he hasn't recruited All-Americans yet?

Rebuilding doesn't happen overnight and we as a fan-base should know that as much or better than anyone. How about we see a few games before throwing Fran under the bus.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

I have no doubt that Fran knew he was taking on a heck of a rebuilding job. As has been pointed out, he's done it twice before, so I don't think he walked into this situation with his head up his arse.

I like everything I have heard so far about Fran's approach to the whole situation, and it seems like he knows what it takes to get it done. I just really never felt that Lickliter really "got it" as far as doing what was needed to win in the Big Ten, the types of recruits he was going after, etc.

I also like the "type" of athletes Fran is trying to recruit. Looks like he is going after the necessary athletes to run his system, judging by those that we have offered schollies to. Regardless of how much "talent" we end up with, I have no doubt that Fran will at least make us a far more athletic team.

The big question is whether the offers Fran has out will turn into commitments. I still believe that it will just come down to whether Fran can get the talent needed to win in the Big Ten.

Can Fran get enough talent to at least improve our program to the point where we are winning and at least making the post-season again? No, I don't think we're going to be getting 5-star players right off the bat. If Fran can win with the 3-star types of players and get us back to respectability, then I think we'll start having a better shot at the 4-5 star players. But Fran will have to recruit better than Lickliter if we're going to win 18-20 games in a season. Recruiting, recruiting, recruiting. And KEEP them on campus.

I think it's WAY to early to judge McCaffery's recruiting, although I would like to see a couple more commits fairly soon, here. So far, he's only landed Basabe, and that was a player that essentially followed him to Iowa from Siena.

I think it's about time to land that next good recruit.

 

[CAARHawk]

Do you have anything specific to base your negativity on, other than he hasn't recruited All-Americans yet?

Rebuilding doesn't happen overnight and we as a fan-base should know that as much or better than anyone. How about we see a few games before throwing Fran under the bus.

Actually, I don't think I am expressing negativity. I have one hypothesis, which I have maintained. That is that successful BCS coaching new hires are able to sign a significant recruiting class within their first two classes. However, with FM I think you extend that to three years, because of the new facility and the 2012 Iowa class.

So, for me it is a wait and see thing. If he doesn't get the players signed, I don't think he will be able to turn things around. If he does, he will. I would expect others to feel the same way. I don't see any clear reason for significant pessimism or optimism. Including that he is friendly with the press, and or fans, or that he has offered good players, or his assistant coaching hires. It all comes down to what recruits he can get to commit. And we have no real indication of which way that will go at this point.

 

[NightmanCometh]

Actually, I don't think I am expressing negativity. I have one hypothesis, which I have maintained. That is that successful BCS coaching new hires are able to sign a significant recruiting class within their first two classes. However, with FM I think you extend that to three years, because of the new facility and the 2012 Iowa class.

So, for me it is a wait and see thing. If he doesn't get the players signed, I don't think he will be able to turn things around. If he does, he will. I would expect others to feel the same way. I don't see any clear reason for significant pessimism or optimism. Including that he is friendly with the press, and or fans, or that he has offered good players, or his assistant coaching hires. It all comes down to what recruits he can get to commit. And we have no real indication of which way that will go at this point.

So, you count 2010 as his first recruiting class?

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

He knows it will be difficult, he saw what Lickliter went through.

What Lickliter went through he created. He has nobody to blame but himself.

 

[drew003]

Actually, I don't think I am expressing negativity. I have one hypothesis, which I have maintained. That is that successful BCS coaching new hires are able to sign a significant recruiting class within their first two classes. However, with FM I think you extend that to three years, because of the new facility and the 2012 Iowa class.

So, for me it is a wait and see thing. If he doesn't get the players signed, I don't think he will be able to turn things around. If he does, he will. I would expect others to feel the same way. I don't see any clear reason for significant pessimism or optimism. Including that he is friendly with the press, and or fans, or that he has offered good players, or his assistant coaching hires. It all comes down to what recruits he can get to commit. And we have no real indication of which way that will go at this point.

Sometimes I think you are crazy, but not with this hypothesis. In basketball talent wins period. Physical development is not that important, the best recruits tends to be the best players. You can refine skills, try to create chemistry, and emphasize defense but ultimately the team with better players normally wins in basketball.

To successfully recruit you have to be able to sell something. When a coach is first hired he can sell something: hope. Optimism is at all time high for the coach, he is undefeated. But people are impatient, after a season or two the fans, media, and recruits and will begin to brand the coach. In our case, we have been terrible for the past four years. We are irrelevant. Right now Fran can still sell hope, if doesn't give any reasons for hope in the next year or two, rightfully or wrongfully, the casual fan, media, and recruits will no longer by the hope message. Fran will be branded, same terrible Iowa Basketball program, just a different coach.

Very few coaches can withstand mediocre early years/recruiting and build a successful team. Tommy Ahmaker couldn't do it, Belien's having a hard time, Dan Monson couldn't do it and Tubby (a huge name) is teetering. Tom Crean is struggling at Indiana of all places. Alford recruited well early and still screwed it up, and everyone knows how things went with Lick.

On the other hand, Matt Painter struck recruiting gold with Hummel, Johnson, and Moore in his early years and now PU is an elite program. Weber walked into a final four team and has been able to maintain a solid program.

Capitalizing on the new coach optimism us crucial for winning fans and recruits. If a coach loses it and gets branded as the a retread by fans and recruits it is hard to turn it around.

 

[sportstalent]

Sometimes I think you are crazy, but not with this hypothesis. In basketball talent wins period. Physical development is not that important, the best recruits tends to be the best players. You can refine skills, try to create chemistry, and emphasize defense but ultimately the team with better players normally wins in basketball.

Teams that had the most "talent" and either haven't made the NCAA or won a National Championship last season: UConn, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky. How did Memphis lose to Kansas in the Championship game when they easily had more talent?
I don't completely disagree with your analysis, but there is a little something that the coach has to do to make the talent work.
Iowa has had talent in the last decade, but it seems on the outside that the coaching did not emphasize some of those things that you highlited with defense and chemistry.
Butler is a "team" that had how much talent in the eyes of recruiting and in the eyes of the National scene? If the talent/players cannot play as a team and go through the motions and expect to win by showing up (Kansas/UNI) then the talent is wasted (Kansas) and the team (UNI) wins. I don't know that Iowa will ever recruit the top teir talent and I don't care if they do, but if they get players that understand the team concept, then Iowa will be fine in the end.
I don't think I am going overboard when I say that Iowa can recruit good to very good players to campus, they have proven they can in the past. Three star team oriented players are better in the long-term than Five star one and done, self-absorbed players. Now there are 5-stars that have the team concept, but most are simply looking out for themselves and how quickly they can get to the NBA.
Big Picture, I am not worried about short-term only in terms of perception, if Iowa is not percieved to be a bad place now that Coach Fran is there, that is number one to me. Other short-term issues are the staff to make it clear what their goals are and I believe that has been done.

 

[DesMoinesHawki]

This thread is out in left field, and I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean. It's almost as if you've flushed the season away without it even being played.

"This is a little harder than turning around a Sienna or UNC-Charlotte..." - No it's not because the foundation of how to turn a basketball team around is the same whether your Sienna, Iowa, or St. Mary's school for the blind. Fran knows how to lay that foundation and has proven that he can.

"He needs top-notch recruits and right now..." - No and No. He needs recruits who will execute his brand of basketball and execute it well. Once his teams start putting up more Ws than Ls and making tournament appearances the better recruits will start filtering in. However for reasons you already stated Iowa is not going to see your "top-notch recruits"

"Of course, we realize that in the day of the Internet kids nowadays have a tendency to go to the "hot programs" at that time. And as we know ... Iowa is not on that list." - And why would they be? Terrible seasons at the end of the Alford era, and even worse seasons at the hand of Lick. Iowa has a long way to go, which is why FM was hired. He knows how to rebuild programs.

"...even imagined it would be this hard" - Hard compared to what? If you're comparing the off season of Iowa and ISU, STOP. Hoiberg can offer a recruit something right now that FM cannot and that's the NBA. Of course that's all Hoiberg can offer because he's never coached a game, but according to you that's what you "Internet Kids" want anyway. Are you comparing Iowa Basketball to Iowa Football? If your are, STOP. KF has had 11 years to build his program and done so without "top-notch recruits" that are so important. Please clarify "...even imagined it would be this hard"

I realize that I'm probably coming across as a D*** here but come on. How about we play some basketball before we start talking about Fran not knowing how hard this job was going to be. And for the record, I would be the farm that he Knows/Knew exactly what he is/was taking on.

It Iowa wins one more game than they did last season I'll be happy!

For the record ... not questioning Fran or his recruiting ability or anything. Just asking a question that if when he goes home at night ... did he ever imagine it would be this difficult. I am stoked to have Fran as our coach. Some other posters think I am writing off the season, etc. You are looking way too much into my post. My intent was to ask I wonder if Fran thinks this is harder than he thought it would be ... But I touched a nerve with some people thinking my intent was to question Fran ... Fran is exactly what Iowa needs right now ... That, I know and believe ...