I sense a new found optimism on the board!

[ForeverHawk]

A slight optimism. As you all know, I have supported Lick and I think in two years, Iowa will make the NCAA tournament. Then again, I could be wrong. But, I see some good development this year, this team is just lacking quality depth and another solid point guard. Are they getting that next year, who knows for sure. But if Tucker is back, I think you have guys that can fill in with Cully, Tucker, Brust and maybe even Marble next year.

With that being said, if Iowa lays an egg tonight against OSU or somewhere down the line, I hope we do not set aside the progress this team has made to this point this season! Yes, Iowa has taken a step back this season and much of that has to do with departures. Whether that was Lick's fault or the players, again who knows for sure. But, Lick is rebuilding this program with his players and in his way and I support that and I see a light at the end of the tunnel.

We are all not always going to agree on certain things regarding the program and Lick, but it was nice to be on the board this past week and not having to deal with alot of the back and forth bantering. So here's to the Hawks kicking some OSU butt tonight?!?!?!?

 

[storminspank]

I like the slight optimism, even slight pessimism is ok. It's the far ends that get kind of old. And, yes, I realize I may on occasion be on one of those ends.

 

[hawkeye12345]

LOL. Couldn't hold my tongue until after the game.

The optimism that is being felt is due to the simple fact that we have played three very weak opponents in our last four games and MSU isn't exactly dominating anyone right now. MSU beat us by 7....they beat Minny by 1 on the road and Michigan by 1 on the road. Care to guess where Minny and Michigan rank in the big10? I'll give you a hint, it's not good.

We are a 10 point underdog at home against fOSU.

 

[ICHAWK]

I like the slight optimism, even slight pessimism is ok. It's the far ends that get kind of old. And, yes, I realize I may on occasion be on one of those ends.

My optimism has not changed. I think Lick is probably a pretty good coach (most D1 coaches are pretty good), only time will tell if he can add the depth/talent needed to compete at the Big 10 level consistently.

Back before the Big 10 season started I was predicting Iowa would win 4 games AT LEAST. Iowa is not good, but they are not AWFUL. I can't believe some people thought Iowa would go winless. I did not think the Big 10 was that good of a conference.

So Iowa really has not prooven much to me yet as I predicted they would win AT LEAST 4 games.

I am more optimistic about next year with added depth and hopefully talent. Then we can maybe start to see something and have TRUE OPTIMISM. This season is about not having any major injuries and just getting better with more games played.

I will be Chalk full of optimism once Iowa beats a good team on the road. May not happen this year, but maybe next season. That kind of puts programs back on the radar. Show you can bet top 5 big ten teams on the road.

 

[deanvogs]

LOL. Couldn't hold my tongue until after the game.

The optimism that is being felt is due to the simple fact that we have played three very weak opponents in our last four games and MSU isn't exactly dominating anyone right now. MSU beat us by 7....they beat Minny by 1 on the road and Michigan by 1 on the road. Care to guess where Minny and Michigan rank in the big10? I'll give you a hint, it's not good.

We are a 10 point underdog at home against fOSU.

Will you give them credit if they win tonight or play well? Or will it just be more of the same from you.....MSU isn't exactly dominating anyone (never mind they are undefeated in conference, with one of the best starts to Big10 play ever in their storied history)

I love how you downplay MSU efforts at not dominating, the same thing the country tried to say about Iowa football (they barely beat UNI, blah, blah, blah)

 

[JHHawk]

My optimism has not changed. I think Lick is probably a pretty good coach (most D1 coaches are pretty good), only time will tell if he can add the depth/talent needed to compete at the Big 10 level consistently.

Back before the Big 10 season started I was predicting Iowa would win 4 games AT LEAST. Iowa is not good, but they are not AWFUL. I can't believe some people thought Iowa would go winless. I did not think the Big 10 was that good of a conference.

So Iowa really has not prooven much to me yet as I predicted they would win AT LEAST 4 games.

I am more optimistic about next year with added depth and hopefully talent. Then we can maybe start to see something and have TRUE OPTIMISM. This season is about not having any major injuries and just getting better with more games played.

I will be Chalk full of optimism once Iowa beats a good team on the road. May not happen this year, but maybe next season. That kind of puts programs back on the radar. Show you can bet top 5 big ten teams on the road.

When Iowa gets beat pretty handily at home by USTA and Duquesne, it is hard to see how they beat many Big Ten teams,so early pessimism was duly earned. Before the season I had Iowa going 11-21 (3-16)...I hope they beat that mark by a few games...but I agree that I probably overrated the Big Ten in the preseason. It is ok,but not as good as I expected(5th as a conference in RPI?)...so that could mean the Hawks get a couple more wins that I thought in league, which would cancel the two losses above that I did not anticipate.

Lets win tonite and have real cause for optimism. Go Hawks...REVENGE ON THOSE BUCKS WITH THE ORANGE BOWL CHAMPS IN THE HOUSE!!

 

[1977Hawkeye]

The only thing that I am convinced of at this point is that the team is playing better than it was 2-3 weeks ago, and that some of the games on the remaining schedule look a little more winnable now than they did then.

I am in wait-and-see mode. Call it cautious optimism if you want (because I do acknowledge the improvement), but I still am not sold that Lickliter is going to get us back to being a 1st division Big Ten team, and making NCAA Tournaments on a regular basis like we used to. I'm not saying that he WON'T - I'm only saying that I'm not sold yet that it will happen. There's alot of work to do yet.

My two major concerns are A) Player retention and B) Do we have enough talent, even once next year's class arrives? Hopefully those two concerns prove to not be an issue going forward, but all we can do right now is speculate.

I still don't expect much this year, but if we can win a few more games and maybe surprise an NCAA Tournament (someone like OSU or Wisconsin maybe), then I'll feel quite a bit better about next year's outlook.

 

[ChosenChildren]

I have probably posted on this topic too much already, but I would make one additional point: When a team is rebuilding and starting from the bottom (which Iowa obviously is doing), you have to beat the bad teams first. Then you start beating the mediocre teams. Then you beat the good teams. And then you beat the great teams. It is a progression (this happened in football; Iowa beat a great team in Georgia Tech a few weeks ago; first BCS win ever).

It doesn't happen overnight and you must follow the progression. Iowa basketball is starting to beat the bad teams and the mediocre teams. If we defeat Ohio State tonight (a big if), you can point to a victory over a very good team. That would be additional progress.

Iowa basketball is making progress; the fans must be patient. There is no "quick fix" and no quick turnaround, no matter who is coaching the team. It didn't happen in football and it won't happen in basketball. Firing the coach is not the answer; you just start over from the bottom.

Ferentz did not start beating the mediocre teams until his third season and he did not defeat any good or great teams until his fourth season.

 

[JDavis11]

The only thing that I am convinced of at this point is that the team is playing better than it was 2-3 weeks ago, and that some of the games on the remaining schedule look a little more winnable now than they did then.

I am in wait-and-see mode. Call it cautious optimism if you want (because I do acknowledge the improvement), but I still am not sold that Lickliter is going to get us back to being a 1st division Big Ten team, and making NCAA Tournaments on a regular basis like we used to. I'm not saying that he WON'T - I'm only saying that I'm not sold yet that it will happen. There's a lot of work to do yet.

My two major concerns are A) Player retention and B) Do we have enough talent, even once next year's class arrives? Hopefully those two concerns prove to not be an issue going forward, but all we can do right now is speculate.

I still don't expect much this year, but if we can win a few more games and maybe surprise an NCAA Tournament (someone like OSU or Wisconsin maybe), then I'll feel quite a bit better about next year's outlook.

1977Hawkeye I've got to say I'm 100% with ya.

+1

 

[hawkeye12345]

Will you give them credit if they win tonight or play well? Or will it just be more of the same from you.....MSU isn't exactly dominating anyone (never mind they are undefeated in conference, with one of the best starts to Big10 play ever in their storied history)

I love how you downplay MSU efforts at not dominating, the same thing the country tried to say about Iowa football (they barely beat UNI, blah, blah, blah)

Sagarin predicts a loss by Iowa tonight by 11 points. Assuming we have made progress on the year then we should win or at the very least lose by less than that, right? If we play to our predicted capabilities based on the year as a whole then we will lose by 11 points or more and the team really hasn't progressed too much throughout the year, and we have simply beaten teams that aren't that good, agreed?

Sagarin had us as a 5 point dog on the road at IU and we won....nice step but keep in mind that IU was a coin-flip without home court advantage points (4).
Sagarin had us as a 19 point dog on the road at MSU and we covered nicely...good.
Sagarin had us as a 1 point favorite at home vs PSU and we won by 3...decent.
Sagarin had us as a 12 point favorite at home to TSU and we won by 5...not that good.
Tonight we are an 11 point dog at home (15 if you don't factor in home court), we shall see if we have progressed.

I don't put all of my faith in Sagarin ratings but I used it to show why some of your optimism really isn't warranted. Beating bad teams isn't something to be proud of as we are considered one of those bad teams as well.

I will agree that tonight is going to paint a really good picture of where the program has progressed this year and I'm looking forward to the game. I hope we win and the signs are all pointing towards a great turnaround for our program from where we were but lets play the game first.

 

[FreddyBrown]

It's human nature. People are here because they love the Hawks. The percentage of people who actually want the team to do poorly but would also post on a board like this is very, very small. So, when it looks like things might go a little bit right for a change, attitudes are going to brighten a little for the great majority of us.

As reflected by some of the posts above, what we're talking about here is guarded optimism.

 

[tubahawk]

The only thing that I am convinced of at this point is that the team is playing better than it was 2-3 weeks ago, and that some of the games on the remaining schedule look a little more winnable now than they did then.

I am in wait-and-see mode. Call it cautious optimism if you want (because I do acknowledge the improvement), but I still am not sold that Lickliter is going to get us back to being a 1st division Big Ten team, and making NCAA Tournaments on a regular basis like we used to. I'm not saying that he WON'T - I'm only saying that I'm not sold yet that it will happen. There's alot of work to do yet.

My two major concerns are A) Player retention and B) Do we have enough talent, even once next year's class arrives? Hopefully those two concerns prove to not be an issue going forward, but all we can do right now is speculate.

I still don't expect much this year, but if we can win a few more games and maybe surprise an NCAA Tournament (someone like OSU or Wisconsin maybe), then I'll feel quite a bit better about next year's outlook.

This is exactly where I am.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

The one thing that I alluded to in my earlier post that I may not have made completely clear is that even if we do win a few more games, which would look pretty good considering the way the team was playing a few weeks ago, that gets us to something like 5 wins in the conference. I would consider that nice progress from earlier in the year, but that still really only gets us back to where we were in years 1 and 2, which I can't call progress from a "coaches tenure" perspective.

The big question is, if we go 5-13 this year (roundabouts) can the team take that next step and get to a 9-9 record, and ultimately, better?

I'm not ready to make that leap of faith just yet, but if the roster turnover problems are over and next year's recruiting class pans out, then I think it's definitely possible that we can get there.

There's too many IF's at this point to say for sure though, IMO. As I said, I feel that it's a wait and see situation.

 

[JDavis11]

If we play to our predicted capabilities based on the year as a whole then we will lose by 11 points or more and the team really hasn't progressed too much throughout the year, and we have simply beaten teams that aren't that good, agreed?

Sagarin had us as a 5 point dog on the road at IU and we won....nice step but keep in mind that IU was a coin-flip without home court advantage points (4).
Sagarin had us as a 19 point dog on the road at MSU and we covered nicely...good.
Sagarin had us as a 1 point favorite at home vs PSU and we won by 3...decent.
Sagarin had us as a 12 point favorite at home to TSU and we won by 5...not that good.
Tonight we are an 11 point dog at home (15 if you don't factor in home court), we shall see if we have progressed.

If we lost by 100 tonight I don't understand how that would effect our previous performances. We were 20 points above the spread at Indiana, I think that helps the optimism argument. The last three games we've covered the spread (by an average of 11.3 pts) and the game before that we still won.

I've said it in other threads I think Ohio State wins easily tonight but I think it's difficult to argue that we haven't made improvements. Even if the only improvement was Aaron Fuller being healthy.

 

[JHHawk]

I think we can objectively cite Fuller and May as two players who have improved,and Matt Gatens struggled early on also,but has been in a nice groove for over a month.
Cully has improved to the naked eye,but his stats are still in a funk. Jarryd has played a bit better also of late.

Fuller is the key. He has gone from being injured and not contributing anything to averaging 14 pts and 7 rebounds the last 9 games....huge contribution now.

If you asked me last spring what players had the highest ceiling on the team,I would have said Fuller was #1...because he had the body and athleticism to compete on the big ten level. He has started to match or even exceed my hopes for him this year.
Gatens, I felt could really only improve marginally since he was already our best returning player after Jake left...and he has improved...happy with him.

Cole was allegedly going to become a shooter from 15 ft this year,and has shown that on rare occasions, but is similar to last years level, but a bit better,no complaints,but just do not see him shooting much more from the perimeter than he has so far...still very useful player who has a great attitude.

Tucker? I was not a big fan last year, and remain in that camp. Do not like his shot selection,or defense,or ball-handling, or bad behavior.

Devan...same as he ever was...

newcomers?....May and Payne are better than I expected....happy with them.
Cougill....slightly better than I expected ,but still hope for more fitness next year.

Overall, considering the horrible start to the season...feeling a bit better than I would have thought at this point...now, beat the fricking bucks,Hawkeyes!!

 

[urohawk]

The only thing that I am convinced of at this point is that the team is playing better than it was 2-3 weeks ago, and that some of the games on the remaining schedule look a little more winnable now than they did then.

My two major concerns are A) Player retention and B) Do we have enough talent, even once next year's class arrives? Hopefully those two concerns prove to not be an issue going forward, but all we can do right now is speculate.

I still don't expect much this year, but if we can win a few more games and maybe surprise an NCAA Tournament (someone like OSU or Wisconsin maybe), then I'll feel quite a bit better about next year's outlook.

I am in this mode, cautious optimism. After the UNI game I was edging towards a fire him now opinion because I thought there was no hope. I was obviously wrong. Things have been derailed but he might be righting the ship. Keep improving and get 3-4 more wins the rest of the year would make me very optimistic. I still believe that if there are significant player transfers (May, Payne, Gatens, Cole, Fuller, Cougill) after this year that we should part ways. I also have serious concerns about the PG position going forward but it can't be worse than this year.

 

[hawkeye12345]

Having a healthy Fuller has played a big part in Iowa's performance on the floor. If this team stays healthy then we will win 4 more games in conference. That's finishing the season at 12-19 (6-12). Last season we finished 15-17 (5-14). I don't really see how anyone could consider that improvement. I know I'm jumping the gun on the rest of this seasons record but that is how I see it right now.


With that said, Licks substitution patterns are amazingly inconsistent at best. Without Cougill's 3 pointers we are probably going to lose against IU. Cougill played 13 minutes against IU and 12 against MSU. He played 1 minute against PSU and 2 against TSU. He must have practiced better (rolling my eyes).

Brommer went from playing double digits minutes against TSU and PSU to playing 2 against IU.

As a player, how do you think that affects you?

 

[Husky28]

Find it interesting that everyone expected the conference to be tougher, but since Iowa has won a couple games and that some middle tier teams are challenging the top tier teams makes it weaker... maybe I'm interpreting it wrong. Did the Big Ten significantly lose some big games prior to conference start? I can't seem to recall but a couple...

 

[JDavis11]

With that said, Licks substitution patterns are amazingly inconsistent at best. Without Cougill's 3 pointers we are probably going to lose against IU. Cougill played 13 minutes against IU and 12 against MSU. He played 1 minute against PSU and 2 against TSU. He must have practiced better (rolling my eyes).

Brommer went from playing double digits minutes against TSU and PSU to playing 2 against IU.

As a player, how do you think that affects you?

Not going to disagree with you but I thought you might find Lick's take interesting. As you alluded to Lick does mention practice but he also talks about their strengths and position. This was right after the Michigan State game.

Minutes for Iowa’s Cougill, Brommer fluctuate on practice, opponent | GazetteOnline.com

 

[urohawk]

That's finishing the season at 12-19 (6-12). Last season we finished 15-17 (5-14). I don't really see how anyone could consider that improvement.

On the surface, yes no one would see improvement with those records. But sometimes you need to just take a step back. If the transfers hadn't happened I would have been optimistic about this year as well. Last year after the losing Cyrus Tate the team took a step back but regrouped towards the end of the year and played some good games. This year if they continue to play well it will be even better situation because all key contributors could come back (unlike last year with Tate) and this is clearly Lick's best recruiting effort coming in.

More experience squad should translate to more wins in nonconference and a deeper team should account for more wins during the Big Ten. Thus the cautious optimism. To get there this team needs to continue to play well, no significant transfers/academic problems, a couple of our bigs (Archie, Brommer or Cougill) make strides in the offseason and at least 3 of the freshman can contribute off the bench. If all of those happens we have at least a shot at the NCAA.