I understand the basis of what he is saying, but I think it is a long-shot...
#1 Oregon really only has Arizona standing in their path the NCG. I think it is a pretty good bet that they get there.
#2 Auburn really only has Arkansas standing in their way (the SEC championship game vs USC or Florida seems very winable).
I think that, at this point, Oregon v. Auburn would be the most likely match-up.
If Auburn loses, though, then I would expect TCU to step into the NCG. It is perfectly reasonable that the Rose Bowl would select Stanford to replace Oregon and play the BigTen champion.
He is assuming that Boise State will still stay in the top 4 or 5, and I'm not sure that is the case. They don't play anybody else this year, so they will be falling in the computers. If you look at the other teams around them, it is very likely that they could pass them in the rankings:
#2 Auburn - if they lose to Arkansas, they might drop to #5 or #6, at the lowest
#5 LSU - plays Arkansas + (potentially) the SEC championship game - it is easy to see them jumping BSU with wins in both those games
#6 Stanford - really don't play anyone remarkable - still, ending up at 11-1 in a major conference, I can see them gettignthe nod to jump BSU...
#7 Wisc - if they win out (including beating Mich) and finish 11-1, I can easily see them jumping BSU
#8 Nebraska - for them to win out, that means that they will beat #10 OSU in the Big12 championship game (+ #25 Texas A&M) - can definitely see Nebraska having a shot to pass BSU
#9 - Ohio State - beating Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan in the last 3 weeks would definitely jump OSU over BSU
#10 - Oklahoma State - they have Oklahoma and the Big12 championship (Nebraska) still on their slate - winning out has a decent chance for them to jump up (although I suspect that they wouldn't pass BSU)
#11 - Michigan State - finishing 11-1 in the BigTen could propel these guys up the rankings. The big loss to Iowa might keep them from jumping BSU, but it might not...
I guess all I am saying is that, even though BSU should win out, I think there is a real possibility that they are ranked 8 or 9 in the BCS when it comes time for Bowl selection. There are a bunch of teams sitting there with 1 loss that could pass them...