Howe: Game By Game Predictions for Hawkeye Football '17
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
eledmonster
Well-Known Dog
All of your predictions are logical and well reasoned. This is also exactly where I was thinking the Hawks would be a few months ago. However after a good deal of careful thought on this, I somehow think that some of the likely close games are going to go our way. Iowa has had some success during the KF years with inexperienced quarterbacks. I just feel that the combination of solid line play, a monster running attack and excellent linebackers are going to see us looking at 8-4 or 9-3. With the team improving as the season goes on.
I have seen the good and the bad of Iowa football, starting in the halcyon days of the mid-70's. I just think this team is going to surprise some folks, particularly as expectations appear pretty low.
I may be completely wrong, I am a total homer after all, but I really think this team will surprise.
Cheers and GO HAWKS!
I think a lot hinges on the PSU game. If Iowa upsets them and then goes on to be 6-0 going into the Northwestern game they could be in line for a heck of a year. Now losing it wouldn't mean all is lost or anything but the confidence of that would mean a ton. I know that'd be a heck of an upset to pull off but that'll be right out of the gates 1st BIG game and on the road for them. It's as good a time to get them as we'll get I'd say.
RobHowe
Administrator
When I did this exercise, I didn't stop through the process, counting wins and losses. I waited until the end. I tried my best to analyze each game individually. The games I predicted as wins that could be losses were at Iowa State and Michigan State. The games I picked as losses that I feel most likely could go the other way are Northwestern and Nebraska.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
IMO, 7-5 is a disappointment. We won 8 games last year with a banged up CJ and Vandeberg along with Greg Davis and his worthless passing playbook. I get it, we play Ohio State this year, but Brian replacing Davis at OC and the additions of Copeland and Polasek are supposed to be an improvement, not more of the same.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
I feel that's fair. 7-5 will be just ok in my book. Not like a fire and get the pitch forks out kinda pizzed off - just the - well, crap we can be better kind of year.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
How I know you're an Iowa fan...
Kennyfromminne
Well-Known Member
Big hopes for a guy who hasn't even called a play yet
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
How I know you're an Iowa fan...
That's fair. And you're right, if that makes me a bad fan, then I guess it does. I just don't get up in arms over 7-5 seasons - a lot of places have it worse and I just can't wish away either the #1 or #2 best coach the program has ever had. If wer'e failing to have winning seasons on the reg, my tune would be different.
DBAHawkFan
Well-Known Member
One of the two, PSU or OSU, is going to spank us bad. Yes, we beat Michigan last year but for whatever reason Harbaugh thought it was a good gameplan to play the game in a phone booth. Iowa is built for that, and one reason why we had so much success against PSU until they started changing their offense.
I lean towards PSU beating us down, as they have two very dynamic players on offense. OSU has 5* players too, but for some reason I feel like we can keep it close against them.
It's like the bowl games when we face teams that have talent, we can't compete. Guess we'll see. But Rob had PSU with 27 points, and I would guess that's too low.
We'll know more in a few weeks!
I lean towards PSU beating us down, as they have two very dynamic players on offense. OSU has 5* players too, but for some reason I feel like we can keep it close against them.
It's like the bowl games when we face teams that have talent, we can't compete. Guess we'll see. But Rob had PSU with 27 points, and I would guess that's too low.
We'll know more in a few weeks!
I hope it comes down to NE giving us an 8 win season or not. Just can't get past the inexperience at QB. We're built for close games and our QB inexperience just seems like a key element to me. I'll assume our kicking game remains good but that too could be questioned at this point.
8-5 last year with a proven QB and an easier schedule. Have we upgraded in other positions that much to make up for these two key factors? I'll go with Mr. Howe's predictions which I think is being made w/o Hawk bias but won't be surprised if we can't reach 7 wins. Hopefully the non conf. schedule will give our QB some success and confidence going into the BIG.
8-5 last year with a proven QB and an easier schedule. Have we upgraded in other positions that much to make up for these two key factors? I'll go with Mr. Howe's predictions which I think is being made w/o Hawk bias but won't be surprised if we can't reach 7 wins. Hopefully the non conf. schedule will give our QB some success and confidence going into the BIG.
Stanzi
Well-Known Member
Meh, I don't think it's "big hopes" when you consider how godawful our offense was under Davis, and the fact Brian will have KOK behind him who has plenty of experience.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
Are you saying we should have hired someone with more experience?
You don't know what you don't know. Famous words and, although we know more now then at the time of Miller's 2017 prediction, we still don't know a lot about this team so I am going w/ my gut (way to large btw.. to much kool-aid).
Wyoming - not so much. Hawks will raise hopes in the tribe w/ a nice 31-17 win. The Cowboys won't be able to run it in but our inexperienced secondary gives up a couple.
ISU - the bubble is popped as the experienced ISU secondary score on a pair of pick sixes in a surprisingly high scoring affair. The 38-34 loss which should have been a 10 point win becomes a black eye. Hawkeye nation starts calling for Mansell as QB as Stanley shows his inexperience in his second start.
North Texas - Stanley looks better against the Green and Iowa's balanced attack shreds their defense. Rugamba has a career day w/ two ints, one a pick six, but AJE is all the talk w/ 3.5 sacks and a couple tackles for a loss. 45-14 win.
Penn State - Nothing like last year's debacle as the Hawkeye defense plays for blood and Iowa's D-line does enough to win but mistakes by the offense call into question BF's leadership. Stanley doesn't throw any interceptions but completes just 48%. Butler and Wadley combine for 202 yards but McSorley and company limp out of Kinnick w/ a 28-21 win. What comes around goes around and the Lions are not the same the rest of the season due to injuries much like Iowa was after the Lion's last stop in Iowa City.
MSU - Hawk's first B!G road trip is an entertaining game. Dantonio's bunch trade leads w/ the Hawkeyes multiple times and the game goes into overtime on a Rugamba pick six w/ minutes to play. Iowa's superior depth on the D-line is the wining factor as the Hawks stuff the Spartans after Iowa gets the 34-28 lead on a Noah Fant TD grab in the first series.
Illinois - The Hawks are back in black and feed off of a frenzied crowd in Kinnick. The game is over by the start of the 4th and Iowa has TDs by three different WRs. Toren Young picks up 75 yds and a TD in cleanup duty. The black and gold top 40 for the second time in the season in a 42-24 win.
Northwestern - What looked like a possible high scoring game going in turns in to a defensive struggle reminiscent of the 2015 Wisconsin game. The teams are well matched and there is a lot of movement between the 20s but turnovers by both teams keep them out of the endzone. Iowa pulls out a win on an AJ Epenesa safety as he brings down Thorson in the Wildcat endzone during the closing minute of the a game that was headed into overtime. Iowa wins 11-9.
Minnesota - Floyd likes it in Iowa as the Gophers come to town. The bronze pig watches from the sideline as the Hawkeyes put together a complete game. Iowa dominates (and scores) in all three phases. The 31-10 win sees Butler and Wadley both go over 100 as the Hawks are content to just chew the clock in the second half. Floyd is happy as the Gophers leave town and Iowa moves into the top 20.
Ohio State - Ferentz's teams usually play their best ball in November. The Buckeyes come into this game undefeated and ranked. The Bucks look sharp and the read option is causing Iowa fits early on as they take a 17 point lead by the first series of the 2nd quarter. The Hawkeyes start to establish a running game and cut the lead to 10 at halftime. The Buckeyes receive to start the 2nd half and some adjustments by Phil Parker pay dividends as they go 3 and out. Wadley takes the ensuing punt to the house. Urban's crew put 3 on the board and then the Hawkeyes come out with some new wrinkles and end the quarter with a touchdown and a one point lead. The Hawkeyes hold on to win 31-29 as the Buckeyes two point conversion fails as the clock runs out.
Wisconsin - The upset over Ohio State leaves Whiskey as the last undefeated team in the B!G. Iowa has to patch up the O-line and @ safety due to injuries. Whiskey is beat up too and the game becomes one of attrition. With the Heartland trophy in the balance Iowa's D-line puts in a masterful performance and keeps Hornibrook off of his game. Stanley finds transfer Matt Quarells for the 17-14 win and a share of the West division lead.
Purdue - The Hawks are licking their wounds but the patchwork O-line remains intact after Camp Randall as Purdue comes to Iowa City for senior day. Blough has a rough day as Iowa's senior line backing trio caps their Kinnick tenure with an unforgettable exhibition. Wadley plays in the slot frequently and scores often in a 35 to 10 romp. All of Purdue's points are scored as the 2s take the field down the stretch.
Nebraska - The trip to Lincoln becomes the most important game of the season for the Hawkeyes. Iowa owns the tiebreaker with the Badgers and the Badgers own the tiebreaker with the Huskers. An Iowa win clinches the division title for the Hawks and an Iowa loss keeps the Badgers and the Huskers in contention w/ Wisconsin's game w/ the Gophers the possible spoiler. The Hawkeyes put the three RBs and the returning O-linesmen into rotation as they pound the Husker front 6. Tanner Lee's aerial attack is effective as the score rises. Iowa's drives are lengthy and the Huskers score quickly. This works to Iowa's advantage as they chew the clock on a productive drive that scores as time runs out. The Hawks win 38-31 and get a rematch with the Buckeyes.
How did I get here? My prediction back in July was 7-5 but that was before Butler and Quarells. I think they are good for 1.5 games so I am at 8.5. An additional .5 comes from what I saw @ kids day. That puts me @ 9 wins. The Wisconsin game could go either way so I flipped a coin and it came up heads.
theboat
Well-Known Member
Record aside, I think if Iowa only averages 22 points per game (based off of your predictions) then 7-5 is the ceiling. That would be the 3rd lowest average since 2000. They averaged less in '12 with Weisman as the lead back and went 4-8, and then in '07 with Christensen running the show and went 6-6.
I don't know what to expect from Stanley, but with Wadley, Butler, Vandy, the TEs, and this line. The team better be able to be north of 25/game.
I don't know what to expect from Stanley, but with Wadley, Butler, Vandy, the TEs, and this line. The team better be able to be north of 25/game.
FirstDownHawkeyes
Well-Known Member
This is exactly the makeup of a successful KF team. The OL is going to be solid and so are 2 RBs. They have talented TEs. The defense will be able to pressure the QB and the LBs are experienced and talented which will help the D win 3rd down. KF teams more then most win and lose on 3rd down on D and 1st down on O. The strengths of the team should lead to succces with both.
9-3 w losses to OSU (for sure) and 2 of PSU, MSU, NW and WI (most likely NW and PSU)
9-3 w losses to OSU (for sure) and 2 of PSU, MSU, NW and WI (most likely NW and PSU)
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
I predicted 8-4 thinking along same lines as Rob but thought we would win 1 of the Nebby/NW games.
It never plays out like you think. We'll probably win one of the more difficult games and drop one we shouldn't... please don't let that be ISU!!!
It never plays out like you think. We'll probably win one of the more difficult games and drop one we shouldn't... please don't let that be ISU!!!
love the optimism If we win 7 and one of them is Iowa State and play a little more exciting football I think thats a good year. If you looked at it today we would likely be underdogs in 6 games and one (Clones) a tossup